Tokyo on track to secure enough winter power supplies

Market: Coal, Electricity, Natural gas
17/10/23

Japan's capital Tokyo is forecast to secure sufficient power supplies to meet peak demand during the upcoming winter season, although its electricity reserve level fell from previous estimates in September.

The Tokyo area will have a surplus of 4pc in January and 4.4pc in February, even if the coldest weather recorded in the past decade hits the region, according to the latest outlook by nationwide transmission operator Occto. The reserve level for January and February was revised down from the respective 5.2pc and 5.7pc predicted on 22 September. But the latest figures remain above the minimum 3pc required for any emergencies, such as unexpected power plant closures and a weather-driven spike in demand.

Japanese power producer and wholesaler Soma Kyodo Power was forced to shut down the 1GW No.2 unit at its Shinchi coal-fired plant on 22 September because of a technical problem. It is still unclear when the unit will be brought back on line. The plant is located in northeastern Japan's Fukushima prefecture but sends some of its produced electricity to Tokyo.

But reserve levels in Tokyo do not include the 650MW Yokosuka No.2 coal-fired unit, as the unit is still conducting trial runs. The unit began test generation in May, with commercial operations scheduled to start in February 2024.

There are two other areas in east Japan, including Tohoku and Hokkaido, that are also expected to have similar reserve levels as Tokyo's 4pc for January and 4.4pc for February. But such ratios in western Japan are predicted to exceed an ideal reserve level of 8pc during the period because of ample nuclear availability.

Occto predicts that Japan will have 124.31GW of thermal generation capacity available for January, which is well above the actual thermal output of 98.545GW in January 2022, according to data by trade and industry ministry Meti. Japan's power sector used 10.9mn t of coal, 4.6mn t of LNG and 168,979 b/d of oil in January 2022.

The Occto also forecasts the country will have 8.7GW of nuclear, 9.51GW of general hydroelectric, 26.97GW of pumped-storage hydroelectric, 2.75GW of solar, 2.08GW of wind and 0.32GW of geothermal capacity for January.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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07/04/25

Flooding on US rivers mires barge transit

Houston, 7 April (Argus) — Barge transit slowed across the Arkansas, Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers over the weekend because of flooding, which prompted the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) to close locks and issue transit restrictions along the waterways. The Corps advised all small craft to limit or halt transit on the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MCKARNS) in Arkansas because flows reached above 200,000 cubic feet per second (cfs), nearly three times the high-water flow. The heavy flow is expected to persist throughout the week, posing risks to those transiting the river system, said the Corps. Some barges have halted movement on the river, temporarily miring fertilizer resupply efforts in Arkansas and Oklahoma in the middle of the urea application season. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday, and the National Weather Service predicts several locations along the MCKARNS will maintain a moderate to minor flood stage into Friday as well. Both the Arthur V Ormond Lock and the Toad Suck Ferry Lock, upriver from Little Rock, Arkansas, shut on 6 April because of the high flows. Flows along the Little Rock Corps district reached 271,600cfs on 7 April. The Corps forecasts high flows to continue into Friday. Ohio and lower Mississippi rivers The Corps restricted barge transit between Cincinnati, Ohio, and Cairo, Illinois, on the Ohio River to mitigate barge transportation risks, with the Corps closing two locks on the Ohio River on 6 April and potentially four more in the coming days. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) anticipates dock and fleeting operations will be suspended at certain locations along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers as a result of the flooding. NWS forecasters anticipate major flooding levels to persist through the following week. Barge carriers also expect a backlog of up to two weeks in the region. To alleviate flooding at Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers meet, the Corps increased water releases at the Barkley Dam on the Cumberland River and the Kentucky Dam on the Tennessee River. The Markland Lock, downriver from Cincinnati, Ohio, and the Newburgh lock near Owensboro, Kentucky, closed on 6 April. The Corps expects the full closure to remain until each location reaches its crest of nearly 57ft, which could occur on 8 or 9 April, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Around 50 vessels or more are waiting to transit each lock, according to the Lock Status Report published by the Corps on 7 April. The Corps also shut a chamber at both Cannelton and McAlpine locks. The John T Myers and Smithland locks may close on 7 April as well, the Corps said. The Olmsted Lock, the final lock before the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, will require a 3mph limit for any traffic passing through. The NWS expects roughly 10-15 inches of precipitation fell along the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys earlier this month, inducing severe flooding across the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys. A preliminary estimate from AccuWeather stated an estimated loss of $80-90bn in damages from the extreme flooding. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Colombia's renewables grow, but gap looms

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Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

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