Viewpoint: European refineries suffer underinvestment
Falling demand for fuels has been dissuading many European refiners from investing in their plants, with the result that assets are deteriorating and some closing altogether. But extraordinary margins are still achievable in the short term for those that can stay online.
Argus reported 14 separate incidents in which a European refining unit had to close because of a fire, leak, power outage or other accident in 2023 — up from 12 in 2022. Underinvestment has been exacerbated by circumstances. European costs are uncompetitive against those in the Middle East or Asia. European oil demand is declining, but growing in those other regions.
Ageing units have been undermaintained since 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and then a reluctance to miss out on resurgent margins by halting units for upkeep. A prolonged heatwave in summer 2023 added further mechanical stress. The EU's ban on Russian crude has pushed some units to run lighter slates than for which they were designed.
The inevitable conclusion of long-term underinvestment and underperformance is permanent closure. This trend has been seen for decades and resumed in late 2023, after extraordinary margins for most of 2022 and 2023 led to a pause. UK-Chinese joint venture Petroineos announced in November that it is beginning the process of converting the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth refinery in Scotland into an import terminal in 2025.
"Refinery margins are forecast to normalise over the medium term, resulting in a reversion to loss-making for our business," Petroineos told Argus.
Six European refineries have closed since 2020. Grangemouth will increase that to seven and Shell's 147,000 b/d Wesseling refinery in western Germany will make it eight if they both close in 2025. Those eight mean a total loss of 935,000 b/d of capacity.
Italian retreat
Italian refineries look most vulnerable. Eni told workers as long ago as 2021 that its 84,000 b/d Livorno refinery would stop refining crude by 2022, to focus on base oils and biofuels. It has not happened yet, perhaps because conventional refining margins have been so unexpectedly high.
Oil traders said the Eni-KPC 241,000 b/d Milazzo refinery in Sicily is comparatively unprofitable too.
The majors keep edging away from European refining through divestments too. TotalEnergies, Shell and ExxonMobil have exited eight European refining assets between them since 2020. Most recently, ExxonMobil sold its 25pc stake in the southern German Miro refinery in October 2023, and Shell its 37.5pc stake in Germany's Schwedt to UK-based Prax.
In the shorter term, European refiners are likely to keep reaping extraordinary profits by historic standards. Falling regional capacity and frequent outages are helping the margins of those who manage to stay online.
"If we have outages, then, all of a sudden, [refined product] prices start to increase," BP interim chief executive Murray Auchincloss said on the company's third quarter earnings call.
Without political rapprochement with Russia, diesel supply lines will remain long and unreliable, keeping margins high in Europe. The forecast recovery of European gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 could add demand and push margins still higher. TotalEnergies' chief executive Patrick Pouyanne noted its refineries are already "running to make diesel" because the loss of Russian supply has kept diesel margins at historic highs despite weak demand.
If production does not have room to rise to match a demand recovery, margins respond more strongly.
But if new refining capacity opens in other regions as planned, European refiners may face stiffer competition, hurting their margins and vindicating plans to close units. The key examples are Oman's 230,000 b/d Duqm and Nigeria's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery, which could start up fully in 2024. Kuwait's 615,000 b/d Al-Zour refinery could avoid mishaps and begin shipping diesel west as expected too. But the only thing seemingly reliable about new refinery openings is that they will not happen on schedule.
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China’s CNOOC gets record gas results from Bohai well
China’s CNOOC gets record gas results from Bohai well
Singapore, 17 July (Argus) — Chinese state-controlled oil firm CNOOC has achieved what it described as record gas production results from a test well at its Longkou 7-1 (LK7-1) oil and gas field in the eastern region of China's Bohai Sea. The LK7-1-1 exploration well could produce almost 1mn m³/d of natural gas and about 210m³/d (1,320 b/d) of crude oil, the company said on 15 July. The former set a record for natural gas tested productivity in the Bohai Sea, according to CNOOC. China produced 123.6bn m³ of natural gas in January-June, up by 6pc from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). The country produced 4.15mn b/d of crude in 2023, NBS data showed. The potential output adds to CNOOC's reserves and production in the Bohai Sea, which stood at 1.97mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) and 599,847 boe/d as of the end of 2023, according to CNOOC. The region represents 29pc of the company's total reserves and approximately 32pc of its production. CNOOC, along with other state-controlled firms like PetroChina and Sinopec, dominates China's domestic oil and gas production. CNOOC has also separately started production at an oilfield offshore China. The Wushi 23-5 oilfield development project — located in the Beibu Gulf of the South China Sea — is expected to produce light crude, and achieve peak production of 18,100 boe/d in 2026. "The project will realise full-process recovery and utilisation of the associated gas through integrated natural gas treatment," the company said on 1 July. CNOOC in November 2023 started production at its Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field in the Bohai bay. The gas field is currently producing an estimated 37,500 boe/d, exceeding an initial expectation of peak production of about 37,000 boe/d, the company said on 11 July. CNOOC in March 2023 discovered the Bozhong 26-6 field with over 100mn t of oil equivalent reserves, also in the Bohai Sea. By Joey Chan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Aumentan importaciones de combustible en México
Aumentan importaciones de combustible en México
Mexico City, 16 July (Argus) — Las importaciones de combustible en México aumentaron en julio de cara a la temporada de viajes de verano e impulsadas por una disminución de la producción nacional en las refinerías de la estatal Pemex. Las importaciones marítimas a México de gasolina, diésel y turbosina, incluidas las importaciones de Pemex y privados, aumentaron un 18pc a aproximadamente 780,000 b/d del 1 al 10 de julio, frente a 663,000 b/d en el mismo periodo de 2023, según datos de Vortexa. Esto se debió principalmente a un aumento del 66pc en los cargamentos de diésel hasta alcanzar 268,000 b/d, ya que la disponibilidad de este combustible en el mercado ilegal probablemente disminuyó, según fuentes del mercado. Los cargamentos de turbosina se cuadriplicaron hasta los 43,000 b/d en el mismo periodo, ya que Pemex reabastece sus inventarios antes de la temporada de viajes aéreos de verano. Las importaciones de combustible a México habían disminuido a principios de este año, después de que la campaña del gobierno para aumentar la producción de refinerías y reducir su dependencia de las importaciones de EE. UU. comenzara a dar sus frutos, aumentando la producción de gasolina y diésel de Pemex en un 32pc y reduciendo sus importaciones hasta un 25pc en marzo. Pero en abril y mayo, el sistema de refinación de Pemex enfrentó varios problemas, desde un incendio en la refinería de Minatitlán hasta un corte de energía importante en la refinería de Tula, lo que llevó los niveles de procesamiento de crudo de Pemex a un mínimo de cinco meses en mayo. Las tasas de operación de las refinerías en junio se publicarán el 26 de julio. Es probable que el procesamiento de crudo haya caído durante el mes pasado debido a operaciones de mantenimiento en dos refinerías, dijo una fuente familiarizada con las operaciones de refinación de Pemex. El mercado tiene sus dudas sobre la posibilidad una fuerte caída en las importaciones de combustible a México, y algunos refinadores de la costa del Golfo de EE. UU. esperan una fuerte y creciente demanda. Además, incluso si la refinería Olmeca de 340,000 b/d iniciara operaciones comerciales este año, es probable que las otras seis refinerías reduzcan sus tasas de utilización, según fuentes del mercado. Recientemente, Pemex comenzó a vender diésel desde la terminal de distribución de la refinería de Olmeca, pero la cantidad es limitada y el combustible se produjo utilizando materia prima destilada en otra planta. La tendencia a la baja en las operaciones de refinado de México podría continuar en julio a pesar de los esfuerzos del gobierno saliente para aumentar la producción nacional. México ha exportado alrededor de 1 millón de b/d de crudo hasta la fecha en julio, un aumento del 20pc frente a los 847,500 b/d en todo junio, según los datos de Vortexa. Esto indica que es probable que las refinerías de Pemex estén operando a tasas más bajas. Las importaciones de combustible de México podrían continuar su tendencia al alza en los próximos meses, pues los gasolineros esperan una mayor demanda de gasolina durante las vacaciones de verano. Los inventarios de gasolina y diésel de Pemex descendieron un 24pc en junio a 6.2 millones de bl, frente a 8.1 millones de bl en junio de 2023, según una respuesta de transparencia de Pemex a una solicitud de Argus . La empresa deberá aumentar sus importaciones si las refinerías no siguen el ritmo de la demanda. Además, las importaciones suelen aumentar en la segunda mitad del año, impulsadas por la demanda de diciembre y la mezcla de gasolina de invierno de menor precio. México importó más gasolina en el segundo semestre del año en 11 de los últimos 12 años y más diésel en ocho de esos mismos años. Juego de unos pocos El mercado de importación de combustible de México se ha limitado a Pemex y a algunas empresas del sector privado durante los últimos tres años del mandato del presidente Andrés Manuel López Obrador, y no hay señales de cambio después de las elecciones presidenciales de junio. Se espera que la presidenta electa Claudia Sheinbaum, que tomará el cargo el 1 de octubre, continúe con las políticas nacionalistas de energía de López Obrador, y tendrá aún menos contrapeso que su predecesor tras la contundente victoria de su partido Morena en las elecciones legislativas. Las importaciones de combustible a México se abrieron a empresas del sector privado después de la reforma energética de 2014, pero la secretaría de energía canceló decenas de permisos de importación de combustible en los últimos años. Por Antonio Gozain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: Petredec pushes LPG to drive Africa clean cooking
Q&A: Petredec pushes LPG to drive Africa clean cooking
London, 16 July (Argus) — LPG trading company and shipowner Petredec was recently unveiled as one of the founding members of the World Liquid Gas Association's (WLGA) Cooking For Life Africa Task Force (CFLA), following the in May. The company was one of the early international entrants to the sub-Saharan African LPG market and continues to pursue opportunities in the region. Argus' Oliver Binks spoke with Petredec's head of downstream, James Bullen, about the company's plans to help expand LPG's use across Africa: Why did Petredec join the CFLA? The task force is a direct response to the IEA's call to action following its summit in Paris in May. The IEA's ambition is to end cooking fuel poverty by making cleaner fuels accessible to all, thereby saving lives. The WLGA created the task force to focus on LPG's role in addressing this challenge. Although the problem itself is acknowledged to be surmountable, and not even particularly costly — in relative terms — the WLGA believes that LPG can largely solve the issue of clean cooking in Africa now. This is a belief that we not only share, but also through our work on the ground in Africa, fully understand first-hand. LPG is well-suited to developing markets, such as those being highlighted as particularly problematic within Africa by the IEA. We believe that LPG's inherent benefits of being accessible, easy to deploy, well-understood and affordable make it the unparalleled choice for meeting the IEA's objectives. What projects are the company involved in within the region? Our strategy onshore has been to invest in markets where LPG is established and understood but market growth is in some way hindered. This is typically owing to a lack of investment in infrastructure, especially import infrastructure. We base our investment decisions on long-term opportunities for LPG and how we can alleviate these bottlenecks to facilitate growth. Affordability is a significant barrier to fuel switching, so being able to import the cheapest possible product is a fundamental pillar of any investment plan we develop. And central to this is the necessity to select locations where the largest LPG carriers, VLGCs, can be accommodated to discharge cargoes. Big ships mean better freight economics, which means cheaper import prices and more affordable LPG for the consumer. We have not announced the specific details of our new investments and are not in a position to do so yet, but the type of projects will come as no surprise to anyone familiar with our record. We have invested more than $200m in the past decade on medium to large-scale LPG infrastructure and it's fair to assume we will do more of the same. What are the challenges to developing infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa? While working in each developing market has its own specific challenges, there are often common issues to navigate when large-scale infrastructure projects are under development. These include planning and permitting , environmental adherence and acceptance and navigating local bureaucracy, which can be multi-layered and onerous. Delays are common and projects such as designing and constructing import terminals, distribution systems and break-bulk hubs are complicated and time-consuming. The key to overcoming these is consistency, perseverance, patience and commitment. Projects run late, budgets require amendments and remits change, but good opportunities are often difficult by nature. Keeping the end goal in sight and taking a long-term view are key. What specific infrastructure in the supply chain needs the most investment? Different regions and markets have different needs. Some countries have focused on one specific type of infrastructure investment while ignoring other key elements. Other countries are in need of modernisation across their entire supply chains. A problem we frequently come across is outdated and insufficient infrastructure stifling market growth. While market participants' intentions to support the growth of LPG might be there, their efforts can be in vain if they are working with 50-year-old-plus import terminals with inadequate capacity to meet market demands, or an antiquated cylinder filling and distribution system. How much LPG does Petredec supply to sub-Saharan Africa, and where does it source it from? Petredec has supplied LPG to Africa since the 1980s, first in north Africa and then elsewhere around the coast of the continent. Annual quantities vary with supply contracts, but for many years now we have supplied significant volumes to South Africa, which we then distribute via road tankers across the southern part of the continent. From our import hub in Richards Bay, South Africa, our local subsidiary, Petregaz, transports LPG to nine countries across the region, often more than 2,000km in each direction. We have always used our global trading, supply and shipping system to ensure that the most appropriate product is supplied to each market. This means as arbitrage opportunities open and close, product can originate from a number of locations, but for South Africa, we typically utilise our large offtake positions in the US Gulf to supply the market. What other clean cooking options do Africans have apart from LPG, and why not pursue these over LPG? We aren't aware of any alternatives as compelling as LPG when considered holistically as a "through the transition" energy option for developing markets. The IEA itself, in the report A Vision for Clean Cooking Access for All, identifies LPG as the primary solution to deliver clean cooking access, representing nearly half of the households gaining access by 2030. That is not to say that LPG is the answer to every problem in every market. During the summit, we encountered new cooking stoves powered by solar energy and recycled pellets, both intriguing but reliant on electric power as a back-up fuel or for flame acceleration. Where we are talking about markets with limited access to electricity, neither of these are practical. The summit also highlighted a number of biofuels, some of which appear interesting, but developments are very early and at this point unproven. We do not believe that LPG's ready availability, low-cost set-up and easy scale-up can be bettered by any current alternative. Which countries are the company focusing on for LPG market expansion across the region? We are focused on expanding operations in our existing markets and new territories. We already deliver LPG to nine sub-Saharan African countries by road so fully understand the importance of multi-modal logistics. But we are keen to improve supply chain operations and are examining opportunities to utilise alternative forms of transport and enhance existing logistics in order to improve productivity and, most importantly, lower costs. Reduced logistic costs means cheaper deliveries resulting in improved affordability, which is crucial as we and our partners strive for market growth. What are the company's objectives in terms of inland African LPG distribution this year? The current project focus, particularly in South Africa, is on further optimisation of the supply chain to better serve our customers. Having acquired one of South Africa's largest dedicated LPG road logistics operators in 2023, we have now fully integrated that business into our operations and have set about further expanding the freight aspect of our offering. We expect to announce further developments in due course that will improve that level in terms of speed, cost and reliability. Targeting new usage opportunities for LPG is also a key current focus, as we look to leverage the strong foundations we have laid since commissioning the Richards Bay terminal in 2020. Acute shortages of alternative energy options and an ongoing electricity crisis in South Africa have thrust LPG into the limelight as a viable substitute for power generation. We are engaged with several industrial and commercial businesses looking for energy security that are, for the first time, considering using LPG. The company divested its Reunion business in 2023. Why and what lessons were learnt? The business ran profitably throughout our 14 years of ownership, and together with our local partner, we had gradually managed to grow our market share and overall volumes. However, with our investment focus in the region shifting from the southern Indian Ocean to continental Africa, Petregaz Reunion had become somewhat isolated in our longer-term strategic growth plan. With their own growth strategy focusing on market consolidation and integrating operations, the business was a natural fit for Vivo Energy and a transaction suited all parties. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med
Tanker owner denies Houthi attack in Med
London, 16 July (Argus) — The owner of a tanker reported attacked today in the Mediterranean Sea has said there was no such incident. Petronav Ship Management said its tanker, Olvia , was not targeted as claimed by Yemen's Houthi militants. An attack in the Mediterranean would be a big step outside the Houthi's region of operations, which is limited to the area in and around the Bab el-Mandeb strait at the southern end of the Red Sea. The Houthis claimed two other attacks today in the Red Sea, on crude tanker Chios Lion and oil product tanker Bentley I . By Ben Winkley and Bob Wigin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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