Auge de nearshoring en México depende del 2024

Market: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
20/02/24

Las políticas energéticas de México durante este año de elecciones presidenciales ayudarán a determinar si el país está preparado para alcanzar el tan ansiado auge del nearshoring, ya que se espera que el desarrollo de parques industriales se expanda en 2024.

México podría exportar cerca de $168 mil millones adicionales entre 2023 y 2028 como resultado de la tendencia de trasladar cadenas de producción más cerca de EE.UU. para evitar retrasos logísticos como los observados durante la pandemia, dijo Alejandro Cervantes Llamas, jefe de investigación cuantitativa del banco mexicano Banorte.

Pero la mayor parte de estas exportaciones fluirán durante los últimos tres años de dicho período, una vez que las instalaciones y la infraestructura industrial planificadas sean operativas.

Alrededor de $10 mil millones adicionales del total de $168 mil millones en exportaciones llegaron en 2023, añadió Banorte.

Mientras tanto, la Cámara de Comercio Internacional (CCI) estima que México verá $38.6 millones de inversión extranjera directa relacionada con el nearshoring en 2024.

Hasta el momento solo se ha anunciado 40pc del desarrollo esperado, pero es probable que surjan más proyectos en 2024, dijo Ramsé Gutiérrez, vicepresidente de asesoramiento financiero de inversiones Franklin Templeton México.

Sin embargo, el éxito del nearshoring depende de la capacidad que tenga México para proporcionar a la industria en auge la infraestructura necesaria, especialmente electricidad y gas natural, lo que a su vez impulsaría a la demanda de combustibles para motores.

La demanda de importaciones de gas por parte de México aumentará de 7.8 Bcf/d en 2023 a 9.3 Bcf/d en 2026, según un estudio realizado por el operador estatal de gasoductos Cenagas el año pasado.

Energía para el nearshoring

México también necesita invertir $116.8 mil millones — $7.78 mil millones/año en promedio durante los próximos 15 años — en generación y distribución de energía para satisfacer la creciente demanda, de acuerdo con un informe reciente de CCI Mexico.

El informe sostiene que, con un crecimiento anual del PIB de 2.4pc, México necesita construir 58,900km de líneas de transmisión y añadir 34.5 GW en capacidad de generación nueva, así como 14.1 GW en capacidad de generación de sustitución hasta 2037.

Las estimaciones se basan en factores de carga de 87pc ciclo combinado de gas, de 25pc para plantas solares y 38pc para generación eólica.

Además, México necesita otros 800km de líneas/año por punto de crecimiento adicional del PIB.

También debe desarrollar una industria alrededor del Corredor Interoceánico del Istmo de Tehuantepec con enlaces ferroviarios, carreteros y gasoductos desde el océano Pacífico hasta el Golfo de México, así como en la península de Yucatán, dijo Osmar Zavaleta, decano asociado de investigación en la Escuela de Negocios Tec de Monterrey.

Pero esto será un reto continuo, dado que las empresas extranjeras tienen profundos compromisos con las energías renovables, en tanto que las iniciativas gubernamentales de los últimos años han dificultado el desarrollo de proyectos solares y eólicos privados.

Los proyectos de generación solar han experimentado un auge en los últimos años, a medida que la regulación presiona a los proyectos más grandes del sector privado.

Este segmento menos regulado está limitado a una capacidad de generación de 500 kW.

Sergio Arguelles, presidente de la Asociación Mexicana de Parques Industriales, lleva más de un año y medio ejerciendo presión sobre las autoridades mexicanas para aumentar la energía renovable autogenerada permitida a más de 500 kW.

Con las elecciones presidenciales de México previstas para junio, tanto la candidata Claudia Sheinbaum como su principal competidora Xóchitl Gálvez han indicado su apoyo al crecimiento acelerado de las energías renovables para el próximo periodo presidencial de seis años que finaliza en 2030.

Con Sheinbaum, quien encabeza las recientes encuestas con una ventaja de dos dígitos, es más probable ver el crecimiento de la capacidad verde impulsado por la empresa estatal de electricidad CFE, mientras que Gálvez apoya una mayor participación del sector privado.

Otro reto al que se enfrenta México sigue siendo la inseguridad, especialmente en los estados fronterizos del norte, donde la inversión extranjera directa más fluida dependerá de la capacidad del gobierno para controlar a las organizaciones criminales de la región.

Por James Young

Inversiones clave de nearshoring en México				$ miles de millones
Compañía	Tipo de proyecto	Inversión	Ubicación	Fecha de anuncio
Tesla	Autos eléctricos	15.0*	Nuevo León	28 Feb 23
Pacific Limited	Gas natural	14.0	Sonora	4 Mayo 23
Copenhagen Infrastructure	Energía eólica / H2 verde	10.0	Oaxaca	24 Nov 23
Lingong Machinery Gr	Manufactura pesada	5.0	Nuevo León	16 Oct 23
TC Energy	Gaseoductos	4.5	Veracruz, Tabasco	27 Sep 22
Ternium	Acero y metales	3.2	Nuevo León	10 Jun 23
HDF Energy	H2 verde	2.5	Baja California Sur	5 Dic 23
Transition Industries	Ultra-bajo carbón	2.0	Sinaloa	11 Dic 23
Engie Mexico	Gas natural	1.6	Multiples estados	18 Ago 23
Tarafert	Fertilizantes	1.5	Durango	17 Feb 23
Artículos de Argus, Análisis Económico Banorte
*Incluye inversiones estimadas de proveedores de la planta de Tesla.

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