Brazil ups 2023-24 crop forecast to 295.4mn t
Brazil's national supply company Conab increased its outlook for the 2023-24 grain and oilseed crops for the first time since the initial outlook in November, amid upward revisions in expected area for the season.
Conab now expects 2023-24 output at 295.4mn metric tonnes (t), up from 294.1mn t a month ago. That is 7.6pc — or 24.4mn t — lower than the previous cycle's record of 319.8mn t because of the negative effects of the El Nino weather phenomenon over main producing states.
The cycle is projected to yield 3,734 kg/hectare (ha), 8.3pc below the 4,072 kg/ha in 2022-23. That also compares with the 3,744 kg/ha forecast a month ago.
Estimated sowed area expanded 590,100ha to 79.1mn ha this month, which is 578,000ha down from the prior season's acreage.
Soybean output rises
Brazil's 2023-24 soybean crop is now set to reach 147.7mn t, up by 1.2mn t from the 146.5mn t a month ago.
That is a 4.5pc drop from the 2022-23 crop's record of 154.6mn t, but is still the second largest crop in the country's history.
The monthly output increase follows a higher sowed area projection of 45.7mn ha, compared with 45.2mn ha in April. That is also a 3.8pc rise on the year.
The expansion more than offset the downward revision in the outlook of Rio Grande do Sul state, which was recently hit by an unprecedented flood. But Conab said that further cuts may come in the following months, when farmers begin to count losses.
Conab predicts average yields to total 3,229 kg/ha, down from 3,239 kg/ha estimated a month prior and 3,507 kg/ha in the prior cycle.
Corn crop also up
Conab expects Brazil to produce over 111.6mn t of corn in 2023-24, including the country's first, second and third crops.
That is above the previous estimate of nearly 111mn t, but down by 15.4pc — or 20.3mn t — from 2022-23 record volumes.
The forecast for the grain's planted area is at 20.6mn ha, approximately 236,100ha above the prior month's estimate. This represents a 7.4pc drop from the 22.3mn ha sowed in the prior cycle. Projected yields are at 5,414 kg/ha, down from March's estimate of 5,444 kg/ha and 8.6pc below the previous crop.
Winter corn — also known as the second corn crop —accounted for most of the increase. The production forecast rose to 86.2mn t from 85.6mn t, below the 2022-23 crop's 102.4mn t record.
Expected yields fell to 5,388 kg/ha from 5,427 kg/ha a month ago. That is also 9.5pc below the prior cycle's yields. Meanwhile, expected acreage was revised up from the prior month by 214,000ha to almost 16mn ha. The 2022-23 second corn crop was sowed in 17.2mn ha.
The summer corn cycle — also known as the first crop — is set to reach 23.4mn t, up by 133,800t from a month prior. The estimate for acreage rose by around 22,100ha to approximately 4mn ha, while yields remain projected at 5,879 kg/ha.
Brazil's 2022-23 first corn crop produced 27.4mn t, yielding 6,160 kg/ha in a sowed area of over 4.4mn ha.
Wheat down, cotton lint up
Conab now expects Brazil's 2024 wheat production to total 9.1mn t, down by 647,300t from a month earlier.
The decrease follows a 223,000ha drop in the sowed area projection to 3.1mn ha. That is 11pc below the prior season. Estimated yields remained roughly stable in May at 2,942 kg/ha, up by 26pc from a year earlier.
Brazil's 2023 wheat output totaled approximately 8.1mn t, with heavy rainfall volumes in the south dropping yields to 2,331 kg/ha and acreage reaching almost 3.5mn ha.
The forecast for 2023-24 cotton lint production rose by 43,500t to 3.6mn t, which is 470,200t — or 14.8pc — above the prior season's output. That reflects favorable weather in Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais states.
The yearly increase is driven by a higher expected acreage of 1.9mn ha, almost 17pc above the 2022-23 season and roughly stable from a month ago. Yields rose to 1,876 kg/ha from 1,860 kg/ha in April, which is 1.6pc below the prior season.
Soybean exports slightly up
Conab expects 2023-24 soybean exports to total 92.5mn t, up by 200,000ha from last month's projection driven by a higher expected production this month.
That compares with almost 101.9mn t of soybeans exported in the 2022-23 season.
Corn exports remains set to reach 31mn t, flat from April but a drop from the 54.6mn t shipped in the prior cycle.
Related news posts
Brazil ups 2024-25 crop farm loans by 10pc
Brazil ups 2024-25 crop farm loans by 10pc
Sao Paulo, 3 July (Argus) — Brazil's subsidized farm loan program for medium and large producers in the 2024-25 season will rise by 10pc from the prior season. The federal government will offer R400.6bn ($71.7bn) in loans to producers, up from R364.2bn in the 2023-24 season. The loans offered under the program, known as Plano Safra, are destined for the crop year starting on 1 July and ending on 30 June 2025. The total amount set for funding operational costs and commercial transactions is set to rise by 8pc on the year to approximately R293.3bn. The remaining R107.3bn are intended for investments, a 16.5pc yearly increase. Farmers will also be able to count on credit lines and bond issuances, which are set to add another R108bn in available resources. Interest rates for investments vary from 7-12pc/yr, depending on the loan, which compares with Brazil's basic interest rate Selic of 10.5pc/yr. For those under the Pronamp program, which is available to medium-sized farmers, interest rates for funding and commercial transactions were fixed at 8pc/yr. Rates were at 5-12.5pc/yr under the 2023-24 program, while the national interest rate was at 13.75pc/yr at this time last year. The RenovAgro credit line — aimed at financing sustainable agricultural practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions — continues with an interest rate of 7pc/yr. The federal government will also offer R76bn in loans to small-sized farmers, up by 6.2pc from the prior program. Considering small, medium and large farmers, the loans under the federal program total R475.5bn, a 9pc increase from R435.8bn in the previous cycle. By Nathalia Giannetti Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Upper Mississippi locks closed by high water
Upper Mississippi locks closed by high water
Houston, 3 July (Argus) — High water levels on the upper Mississippi River have caused several lock closures and spurred delays for barge carriers. Lock and Dams (L&D) 12, 16 and 17 on the upper Mississippi River closed 2 July and are expected to remain closed through the rest of this week and possibly into the next, according to the US Army Corps of Engineers. Locks 11, 13, 18 and 20 are expected to close on 4 July. The Corps will likely close locks 14 and 22 on 5 July, while lock 15 is expected to close 6 July. The Corps said the duration of the July 4-5 closures is unclear. Another 2-5 inches of rain fell along the western Corn Belt in the past week, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. High river conditions led to major flood status at Dubuque, Iowa, while other locations along the river are at moderate flooding levels. Water levels are 4-5ft below record highs on the upper Mississippi River. The outdraft at lock and dam 16 was at 211,444 cubic feet per second (cfs) on Tuesday, compared with typical flow of 41,100cfs. Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line anticipates 7-10 days of disruption followed by a 2-3 week catch-up. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
EU’s centre-right EPP mulls Green Deal tweaks
EU’s centre-right EPP mulls Green Deal tweaks
Brussels, 3 July (Argus) — The European Parliament's largest group, the centre-right EPP, is working to complete the bulk of its strategy programme on 4 July at a meeting in Portugal. Key elements in the party's 2024-29 policy agenda include significant changes to the bloc's climate and energy policy for 2030. A draft of the five-point policy plan lists revising CO2 standards for new cars and vans to "allow for the use of alternative zero-emission fuels beyond 2035". The EPP also calls for a new e-fuel, biofuel and low-carbon fuel strategy "with targeted incentives and funding to accompany the EU hydrogen strategy". Additionally, the EPP wants the incoming European Commission to create a "single market for CO2" with a market-based framework for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon capture and utilisation (CCU), through an accompanying legislative package similar to that adopted for the EU's gas and hydrogen markets. The strategy document discusses a "Green Growth Deal" aiming to achieve the EU's 55pc emission reduction target by 2030 — from 1990 levels — and climate neutrality by 2050, while boosting the EU's competitiveness and ensuring technological neutrality. The draft document emphasises the need to transition "away from fossil fuels towards clean energy", also by ramping up international hydrogen production. And the draft advocates for a "simple, technology-neutral, and pragmatic definition for low-carbon hydrogen" in upcoming technical legislation from the commission. More controversial points include postponing application of the EU's deforestation regulation and addressing problems related to its implementation. The EPP also wants to split the EU's industrial emissions directive into "industrial and agricultural parts", conduct a "full-scale" inquiry into why farmers are not receiving fair prices for their products, and require robust impact assessments for the economic viability of farms for any new animal welfare proposals. The group's members of parliament are meeting until 5 July. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen is also attending. She was [recently nominated](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/25825320 by EU leaders for re-election. The EPP programme will significantly influence policy priorities that von der Leyen would support, if she is approved by an absolute majority of 361 votes at a session in Strasbourg on 15-18 July. But von der Leyen may need to drop more controversial points to secure a majority with liberal, centre-left and green support. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
IGC keeps Australian grain output, export forecasts
IGC keeps Australian grain output, export forecasts
Sydney, 2 July (Argus) — The International Grains Council's (IGC) projections of Australia's grain production and exports in 2024-25 remain largely unchanged, despite rainfall in major cropping areas in June. The IGC revised its forecasts for Australia's 2024-25 grain production slightly downward from May by 125,000t to 45.5mn t, and exports by 50,000t to 31.7mn t. Wheat production and exports remained unchanged at 30.1mn t and 21.5mn t, respectively. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) June rainfall summary showed national rainfall at almost 10pc above the 1961-1990 average. National area-averaged mean temperature was 0.71 degrees higher than the 1961-1990 average. Rainfall was above average for most of Western Australia in June, or in the top 10pc of June months since 1900, supporting crop germination and development. Areas near the Geraldton cropping region — which accounts for approximately 22pc of WA's wheat crop area — received their highest rainfall on record, according to BoM data and the Grain Industry Association of Western Australia (Giwa) estimates. The seasonally late major rainfall event delayed the state's crop development, but warmer soil temperatures accelerated crop growth. That put the state back on track for at least an average year as opposed to a well below average year, Giwa said in its crop report released in early June . Rainfall remained below average in parts of WA's Albany and Kwinana South cropping regions in June. Dryness in June was even more severe in southern New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria, which received below average or very much below average rainfall in June. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Abares) noted earlier in June that yield expectations in NSW's southern cropping regions were highly contingent on sufficient and timely rainfall. Abares expects the state's overall winter crop to yield 2.5 t/hectare in 2024-25. The IGC did not change its 2024-25 world grain output projection in June from 2,312mn t in May. Global carryover stocks in 2024-25 were revised upward by 2mn t, but remained the lowest in a decade at 582mn t. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Business intelligence reports
Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.
Learn more