Rodeo renewable jet unlikely in 4Q: Phillips 66

Market: Biofuels
29/10/24

Phillips 66's renewable fuels refinery in Rodeo, California, plans to start producing renewable jet fuel by the first quarter of next year and is now running higher carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks to produce renewable diesel (RD).

"We're currently running off higher CI feedstocks for the plant as we prepare for the production tax credit next year," Phillips 66's executive vice president of marketing and commercial Brian Mandell said on an earnings call today, referring to the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) 45Z tax credit. He said it was not likely renewable jet fuel would be produced before year-end.

The plant successfully produced sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in September, chief executive Mark Lashier said on the call. "We will fully intend to be a supplier of sustainable aviation fuel to the marketplace," he said.

The company's renewable fuels business logged a $116mn loss in the third quarter compared to a profit of $22mn in the same three months of 2023, according to earnings released today.

Still, Phillips 66 thinks renewable refining margins have room to widen "into the fourth quarter and beyond," Mandell said.

Low feedstock prices, limited imports to the US, a tight fossil diesel market on the west coast and "stronger" credit markets will widen RD margins, according to Mandell.

By Nathan Risser

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

30/10/24

Cepsa rebrands to Moeve to reflect sustainability shift

Madrid, 30 October (Argus) — Spain-based integrated energy company Cepsa has changed its name for the first time in its 95 years of existence, to Moeve (pronounced Moo-eh-vey). The change reflects Cepsa's transition "in which the majority of profits will come from sustainable activities by the end of this decade," said chief executive Maarten Wetselaar. Cepsa has sold nearly 70pc of its oil and gas production over the past two years, including its stakes in upstream assets in Abu Dhabi , in Peru and in Colombia . It has retained stakes in light crude and gas production in Algeria, which has a significantly lower carbon footprint. The company reported provisional working interest crude production of 36,000 b/d in July-September, down from 80,000 b/d in the same period of 2021. Since then it has announced an €8bn ($8.65bn) investment strategy to decarbonise much of its business through ventures such at the planned 2GW Andalusian Hydrogen Valley , announced at the end of 2022, together with second-generation biofuels, biomethane and renewables development. Cepsa, or Compañia Espanola de Petroleos SA, was founded in 1929. It has been been majority controlled by Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth investors IPIC and Mubadala Investment Company since 2011. US investment fund Carlyle acquired 37pc of the firm in 2019. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

B24 bunker demand in Asia, Middle East to rise in 2025

25/10/24

News

25/10/24

B24 bunker demand in Asia, Middle East to rise in 2025

Singapore, 25 October (Argus) — B24 bunker demand in the key ports of Singapore, Zhoushan and Fujairah will likely rise in 2025, because of increased demand ahead of the implementation of the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation. Regional demand for B24 — which consists of 24pc used cooking oil methy ester (Ucome) and 76pc very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) — is expected to rise as shipowners prepare to meet more stringent mandates set by the EU and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) from next year, said market participants. FuelEU Maritime aims to raise the share of renewable and low-carbon fuels in the fuel mix of maritime transport within the EU, and will set requirements for greenhouse gas emission reductions against a 2020 baseline level, starting with 2pc in 2025. The use of B24 is a relatively low-cost way to help meet the new mandate and is available at key ports globally. Competition for B24 is rising in Asia and the Middle East as port authorities revisit local rules and permits. The Zhoushan Port Authority will obtain the domestic blend permit by the end of the year, it said recently at a local conference,which will pave the way for key local refiners to blend and sell B24 to local and international shipowners. The quota is likely to be divided among Chinese majors like PetroChina (CNPC), Sinopec, and CNOOC. The port authorities further mentioned that CNPC and Sinopec are expected to each receive a blending quota of 200,000t of B24, while CNOOC will receive a blend quota of 100,000t in 2025. There were no further details available or any other formal announcement. But regional traders and shipowners, which have been waiting for the lifting of restrictions by the Chinese government, expect the move will allow shipowners more options to bunker B24 in this region. European market participants expect this B24 blending permit, if allocated, may pull some marine biodiesel demand towards Zhoushan and away from shipowners operating on east-west routes between Singapore and Europe.B24 blends in Zhoushan could end up pricing very competitively against VLSFO when EU emission trading system (ETS) costs are accounted for, given easing prices for Chinese-origin biodiesel, participants added. And FuelEU Maritime's pooling mechanism, which allows shipowners to pool different vessels together to achieve overall compliance across the pool, will enable shipowners that operate east-west routes to pool those vessels with other vessels that operate only within the EU — opening the door for marine biodiesel bunkered in Zhoushan to help meet FuelEU compliance. Singapore B24 consumption has been on the rise in Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, through 2024 because of demand from regional and international shipowners for refuelling of this blended marine fuels. B24 consumption touched 470,300t between January to September, according to data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA). Demand for B24 is expected to near 800,000t by the end of 2024, up from 518,000t in 2023. Zhoushan remains competitively priced versus Singapore for VLSFO, with Singapore's delivered on board (dob) prices for the past year showing a $3/t premium versus Zhoushan on average, based on Argus data. But Singapore-based traders remain confident that the city-state will continue to lead the region in terms of B24 bunkering demand into 2025. "I think both ports will co-exist and there will be price competition…also it doesn't replace Singapore as the main port, do note," said a key global trader and refiner. Singapore is also the cheapest in terms of B24 pricing, compared with other key ports like Rotterdam and Fujairah. The spread between Singapore versus Rotterdam since 24 April shows a $94/t discount for bunkering in the former port, while the discount for Singapore with Fujairah stood at an average of $39.4/t, based on Argus data. Middle East Bunkering B24 has been picking up in the Middle East since the end of 2023, with sporadic demand trickling in this year. "We receive enquiries for B24 once or twice a month, sometimes even less than that for small volumes of 150-200t," one Fujairah-based trader said. But this could change following the implementation of the EU's FuelEU Maritime regulation from January 2025 . The EU is an important market and a regular destination for much of the maritime traffic passing through Fujairah, so the new regulations are likely to be a trigger for change, market participants said. "Many vessels refuel in Fujairah before calling at EU ports," one trader says. "They already have to comply with the EU ETS, [Carbon Intensity Index], and will need to also comply with FuelEU." By Mahua Chakravarty, Hussein Al-Khalisy and Elshan Aliyev Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

India’s IOC plans 1pc SAF blending by Jul-Sep 2025

24/10/24

News

24/10/24

India’s IOC plans 1pc SAF blending by Jul-Sep 2025

Singapore, 24 October (Argus) — Indian state-controlled refiner IOC plans to achieve at least 1pc sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in jet fuel by July-September 2025, ahead of the government's aim of 2027. IOC also plans to set up dedicated plants for SAF, IOC's director of research and development Alok Sharma said at the India Refining Summit on 23 October. India aims to have 1pc SAF in jet fuel for international flights by 2027, which will double to 2pc in 2028. Delhi initially targeted to have 1pc SAF blending in jet fuel by 2025, saying it would need 140mn litres/yr of SAF to achieve this as part of the country's efforts to achieve net zero by 2070. Refinery expansions will focus on expanding production of jet fuel on expectations of higher demand, Sharma said. He added that demand for other products will plateau, but that of jet fuel will increase. The IEA sees global oil demand — excluding biofuels — falling to 93.1mn b/d in 2050 . This compared with 97.4mn b/d in last year's World Energy Outlook , mainly because of lower-than-previously expected oil use in transportation, particularly in shipping. Ethanol is likely to gain importance given that there are talks of blending 5pc ethanol in diesel, Sharma said, adding that India is likely to achieve its target of blending 20pc ethanol in gasoline by 2025. India has a set a goal to increase ethanol blending in gasoline to 20pc by 2025, as part of efforts to reduce its dependence on crude imports. Ethanol blending in gasoline was 13.8pc during November 2023-September 2024 and 15.9pc during September 2024, oil ministry data show. Most of the ethanol comes from first-generation plants, while second-generation plants are facing issues with feed handling which they hope to sort out soon, Sharma said. Second-generation bioethanol refers to ethanol made from non-edible resources such as biomass, while first-generation bioethanol is made from food resources such as sugarcane and corn. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Biomethanol, fuel oil demand up in Rotterdam port 3Q

23/10/24

News

23/10/24

Biomethanol, fuel oil demand up in Rotterdam port 3Q

London, 23 October (Argus) — Bunker fuel oil and biomethanol sales at the port of Rotterdam rose in the third quarter of this year, but those of gasoil and marine biodiesel fell, according to official port data. Very-low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO), and high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) sales all picked up on the quarter and on the year ( see table ). Participants attributed the increase in HSFO demand to the seasonal arrival of containerships at the port. HSFO demand rose in the previous quarter owing to re-routing of vessels because of chronic traffic disruption in the Red Sea. Ahead of the Mediterranean Sea becoming an emission control area (ECA) in May 2025, participants had pointed to expectations of firmer ULSFO demand in Europe for scrubber-less vessels operating between ECA zones. Vessels operating in ECA zones are be required to burn marine fuels with a sulphur content no higher than 0.1pc, rather than the global cap of 0.5pc. Combined sales for marine gasoil (MGO) and marine diesel oil (MDO) fell on the quarter and on the year in July-September. Market participants reported mostly lacklustre bunker fuel demand in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub in that time, combined with tight prompt availability that weighed further on sales. Marine biodiesel blend sales declined sharply owing to a shift in voluntary demand east of Suez. B24 dob Singapore, a blend comprising VLSFO and used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), was an average of $715.56/t in July–September. This is lower than comparable assessed European blends, such as B30 Ucome dob ARA that averaged $804.71/t, B30 advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 dob ARA — which includes a deduction of the value of Dutch HBE-G renewable fuel tickets — at $738.12/t, and B24 Ucome dob Algeciras-Gibraltar at $784.12/t. Consequently containerships seeking to deliver proof of sustainability (PoS) documentation to their customers, to offset the latter's scope 3 emissions, shifted their marine biodiesel demand to Singapore when feasible. PoS can be obtained on a mass-balance system, allowing shipowners flexibility with regards to the port at which a blend can be bunkered. Biomethanol sales at the port of Rotterdam more than doubled on the quarter and soared by more than eight times on the year. Several shipping companies are leaning towards methanol and renewable methanol as alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions. Danish shipping giant Maersk has ordered 24 methanol-powered container ships for delivery and commissioning during 2024-25, and Japanese classification society ClassNK said recently it expects 77 methanol-ready ships to be ordered by 2026, up from 27 newbuilds expected to be ordered this year. ESL Shipping said earlier this month it will build four new vessels that can run on biomethanol and green hydrogen-based e-methanol. Offtake agreements for renewable methanol are on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Norway's state-controlled Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . Maersk has agreed to buy 500,000 t/yr from Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind from 2024. Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said in 2023 it will buy biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting this year. By Hussein Al-Khalisy, Natália Coelho, and Evelina Lungu Rotterdam bunker sales t Fuel 3Q24 2Q24 3Q23 q-o-q% y-o-y% VLSFO & ULSFO 1,045,774 917,253 997,356 14.0 4.9 HSFO 906,737 825,125 790,195 9.9 14.7 MGO & MDO 334,752 369,267 379,142 -9.3 -11.7 Marine biodiesel blends 137,177 235,043 183,249 -41.6 -25.1 Total 2,424,440 2,346,688 2,349,942 3.3 3.2 LNG (m³) 220,120 242,931 204,418 -9.4 7.7 Biomethanol 2,066 950 250 117.5 726.4 Port of Rotterdam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Malaysia's 2025 budget promotes palm waste SAF

21/10/24

News

21/10/24

Malaysia's 2025 budget promotes palm waste SAF

Singapore, 21 October (Argus) — Malaysia's state-owned Petronas will work with palm oil producers to develop palm oil waste-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), according to prime minister Anwar Ibrahim when he presented the 2025 budget. The palm oil producers include Malaysia-based agribusiness FGV and Malaysia-headquartered SD Guthrie, previously Sime Darby. Anwar also announced additional higher tax brackets for crude palm oil (CPO) exports will be introduced from 1 November and proposed to increase Malaysia's windfall profit levy threshold for the palm sector. These changes are meant to ensure domestic CPO supply and encourage domestic production of value-added products including SAF and biodiesel, according to the Budget documents. Progressive export duties will be introduced from 8.5pc when CPO prices rise above 3,600 ringgit/t ($837/t), up to a maximum 10pc for CPO prices above 4,050 ringgit/t. Previous duty rates capped out at 8pc for CPO prices above 3,450 ringgit/t. This revised export structure is likely to weigh on palm oil prices, as exporters may reduce bids in the domestic market to keep prices below the threshold that will trigger higher export duties. The CPO price threshold for triggering Malaysia's windfall profit levy will be increased to 3,150 ringgit/t for Peninsular Malaysia and 3,650 ringgit/t for Sabah and Sarawak from 1 January 2025, a rise of 150 ringgit/t from the previous threshold for both areas. The windfall profit levy applies to producers of palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB). The revised export taxes and windfall profit levy threshold are expected to increase costs for the palm plantation sector, but would help the downstream palm refining industry become more competitive compared with Indonesia, according to industry consultancy Glenauk Economics. Replanting funds Malaysia will also allocate another 100mn ringgit to incentivise smallholders to continue replanting unproductive, ageing oil palm trees under its 2025 budget, the same amount from the previous year. The funding will be 50pc in grants and 50pc in soft loans, as in Budget 2024. No land area target for replanting was specified this year. But this year's allocated funding of 100mn ringgit mirrored last year's allocation that targeted 5,900 hectares (ha) of land area. But this amount will likely not be enough to support adequate replanting, according to market participants. Malaysia replanted an estimated 1.7pc of mature oil palm plantation areas during January-September and 2.6pc of mature areas in 2023, according to data from Glenauk Economics. This indicates more funding is likely needed to meet the 4pc industry standard for replanting mature areas yearly as recommended to maintain palm oil output volumes. The low replanting rate has likely partly been because of high palm oil prices in recent years compared to the historical average. High prices discourage voluntary replanting as plantation owners prefer to continue harvesting FFB from older trees over replanting. Third-month crude palm oil (CPO) futures on Bursa Malaysia averaged 3,890 ringgit/t over the past two years up to 21 October. The average price recorded over the past 10 years was just 3,124 ringgit/t. The US department of agriculture (USDA) estimated a quarter of planted oil palm areas in Malaysia were older than 25 years old as of early January, resulting in lower yields. By Malcolm Goh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more