New sulphur shipping rules in the Mediterranean next year will test the region's ability to supply the necessary bunker fuels, writes Bob Wigin
Marine gasoil (MGO) could be the big winner in demand terms next year when new International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules on the sulphur content of bunker fuels are introduced in the Mediterranean.
From 1 May 2025, the Mediterranean will become a new IMO emissions control area (ECA), where vessels will need to adhere to a 0.1pc sulphur bunker fuel limit, down from 0.5pc at present. That will create new demand for compliant fuels such as MGO and ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO), but the relative lack of ULSFO production from Mediterranean refineries and the region's ready spot MGO supply mean that the latter looks set to become the most popular option among shippers, at least to begin with.
Mediterranean refiners as yet produce little ULSFO, but may be motivated to step up output next year if substantial spot demand develops. Vessels making regular journeys along the same route, typically container ships, are likely to set up term ULSFO contracts with suppliers, market sources say, but shippers looking for prompt spot volumes will initially need to look at MGO, which is already consistently available on a spot basis at most Mediterranean ports.
Speaking at this week's Argus European Crude Conference in London, Spanish firm Repsol Trading's head of market intelligence, Carmen Lopez-Contreras, said she has no doubt that sufficient 0.1pc sulphur marine fuels will be available for vessels once the new regulation kicks in. Repsol is already supplying ULSFO to some cruise ship and ferry operators, she said.
But the change will certainly put the region's supply capability to the test. A study carried out in 2021 by the Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea (Rempec) projected that 16.7mn t of MGO would have been burned in the Mediterranean in 2020 had it been an ECA zone then, compared with a 2016 baseline of 542,000t.
Split shift
Some market participants have also suggested that European refiners' crude feedstock mix may not be well suited to ramping up ULSFO output, but trade data show this is less the case than in the past. Europe as a whole now takes a lot less medium sour Russian Urals crude and a lot more US light sweet WTI than it did three years ago, while, even in the Mediterranean, the sweet-sour split this year has been roughly 50:50, Vortexa data indicate, reflecting Opec output cuts and the impact of Red Sea shipping disruptions.
The Rempec study also projected high and low-sulphur fuel oil use in the Mediterranean would shrink from 15mn t in 2016 to 95,000t in 2020 under an ECA scenario. The biggest threat will be to 0.5pc very-low sulphur fuel oil, unwanted volumes of which could end up heading to markets east of Suez, traders suggest, as east-west price spreads widen.
But the outlook is slightly more complex for 3.5pc high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), which has been a surprising beneficiary of the IMO's tighter sulphur rules globally, as many vessels, especially container ships, have opted to comply by installing exhaust gas cleaning "scrubbers". This has allowed them to carry on buying HSFO, rather than switching to cleaner — and usually more expensive — alternatives.
In the Mediterranean, market participants note it would not make economic sense for many operators to fit scrubbers, as a large portion of the region's fleet is reaching the end of its life cycle. Scrubbers may struggle to clean exhaust gases from 3.5pc sulphur HSFO to a 0.1pc level. Some Mediterranean bunker suppliers say they are already receiving requests for non-standard 2.5pc sulphur fuel oil, which exerts less wear-and-tear on scrubbers.
