Governments, companies and scientists have expressed concern at President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement, but have committed to continue with plans to decarbonise and drive forward the energy transition.
"It's not a complete halt of the efforts but it's definitely a concerning moment," director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Johan Rockstrom told delegates this week at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.
"The nervousness is what spillover effects this can have on other countries in the world and that in turn can end up in a serious slowdown of efforts. I'm thinking of Saudi Arabia, I'm thinking of Argentina, I'm thinking of some of the more populist governments now in Europe," Rockstrom added.
Action on climate change is competing for space on policymakers' agendas with geopolitical turmoil — war in Ukraine and the Middle East — as well as economic challenges.
"We're in a state of crisis fatigue… we only seem to have an attention span for one crisis at a time, so as this polycrisis environment that we've been in for the last few years… climate has been pushed down that crisis priority list, but… science behind climate hasn't changed. The impacts actually have changed in that they're simply getting worse", executive secretary of UN climate body the UNFCCC Simon Stiell said in Davos.
In response to Trump's decision to pull the US out of the Paris accord, the EU and China immediately committed to continue with their action on climate change, and both underlined the importance of multilateralism.
"I want to be very clear with my message. Europe stays the course, and we stand ready to work with all global actors to accelerate the transition to clean energy," European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said.
Transition is ‘unstoppable'
Many speakers in Davos noted that the energy transition to renewables is well underway, and has advanced rapidly since Trump's first term in office.
"The world is undergoing an energy transition that is unstoppable," Stiell said.
Several private-sector representatives attending the WEF embraced the energy transition, pointing to increased efficiency and cost savings. "I haven't found one single area where climate smart wouldn't be resource smart and cost smart," Ikea chief executive Jesper Brodin said.
"Technology will win the day in the end", Volvo Cars chief executive Jim Rowan said. The consensus from a CEO lunch during the WEF was that "we are not deviating from the plans we have. We're staying on track. We're moving on a decarbonisation path, we're electrifying our industry, we're not going to be shaken up by what's happening," Rockstrom said.
Within the US, action to decarbonise looks set to consolidate beyond federal level. A group of 24 US state and territorial governors have assured the UNFCCC of their continued climate action. And Bloomberg Philanthropies this week said it would step in to cover the US' financial obligations to the UNFCCC, as well as support the country's climate reporting.
The long-term realities of a heating world overshadow the relatively short-term politics. "It is one of the most challenging things we will be facing in the decades to come, and the effects are devastating," EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said this week.
Extreme heat is projected to cause $2.4 trillion/yr in productivity losses by 2035, as well as $448 bn/yr in fixed-asset losses for publicly listed companies, financial services provider Allianz said. The US in particular has been hit hard by catastrophic weather events — proven to be exacerbated by climate change — in recent months. California governor Gavin Newsom pointed to wildfires, which have this month devastated swathes of Los Angeles. "If you don't believe in science, believe your own damn eyes," Newsom said.
