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Proven tech focus of 2024 transition investment: BNEF

  • Market: Electricity, Emissions, Hydrogen
  • 30/01/25

Global energy transition investment rose to record levels in 2024, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) says in a report published today, but growth was centred on proven technologies and the amount put into emerging sectors declined.

Overall investment in the energy transition reached almost $2.1 trillion last year, BNEF says, an increase of 11pc from 2023 and the highest ever.

But the increase was markedly smaller than the 24-29pc annual growth recorded over the previous three years. And investment needs to rise to $5.6 trillion/yr in 2025-30, and $7.6 trillion/yr in 2031-35, to align with achieving net zero emissions by mid-century, BNEF says.

About 93pc of energy transition investment last year related to "proven, commercially scalable" technologies, BNEF says, resisting pressure from higher interest rates and policy decisions to rise by 14.7pc to $1.93 trillion. Of these, electrified transport attracted the most investment at $757bn, up by 20pc on the year, followed by renewable energy, up by 8pc to $728bn, and power grids, up by 15pc to $390bn.

But investment in emerging technologies fell by 23pc on the year to $154bn. Carbon capture and storage investment halved to $6.1bn, as did clean industry investment to $27.8bn. And hydrogen investment declined by 42pc to $8.4bn.

BNEF points to issues surrounding technology maturity, scalability and affordability as key hindrances in emerging sectors, flagging the need for public-private partnerships to derisk investment and encourage growth.

The main regional sources of investment shifted in 2024, as mainland China increased its contribution by 20pc to $818bn, investing more than the principal 2023 growth drivers — the EU, US and UK — combined. EU investment fell to $381bn and the UK's to $65.3bn, while the US' held stable at $338bn.


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21/02/25

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval

Republicans target US energy rules for disapproval

Washington, 21 February (Argus) — Republican leaders in the US House of Representatives hope to disapprove at least seven energy-related measures issued under former president Joe Biden using a filibuster-proof process created under the Congressional Review Act. House majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) on Thursday released a list of 10 rules that his party has prioritized as "potential targets" for disapproval votes, which require only a simple majority to pass in each chamber. Republicans previously used the law in 2017 to successfully unwind more than a dozen rules, and they hope to do so again to repeal Biden-era rules they say will unnecessarily raise costs on businesses and consumers. A US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation that implements a $900/t charge on oil and gas sector methane leaks is among the rules that Republicans want to disapprove. If those implementing rules are scrapped, it would provide a temporary reprieve from a 31 August deadline for operators having to pay billions of dollars in potential fees on methane emitted in 2024. Republicans hope to vote later this year to permanently end the methane charge, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans also hope to disapprove an offshore oil and gas safety rule for drilling in deepwater "high pressure, high temperature" environments that Scalise's office says will increase "burdens on energy operations". Other rules that Republicans will target for disapproval are energy conservation for gas water heaters, energy efficiency labeling standards and air pollution restrictions on rubber tire manufactures. Two of the energy measures House Republicans say they plan to target might not qualify for disapproval under the Congressional Review Act, which can only be used on a "rule". The first is a waiver that would allow California to boost in-state sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, and that President Donald Trump's administration has tried to make eligible for repeal. The second is the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's decision to release voluntary guidance for exchanges that allow trading of carbon offset futures. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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German power industry split on capacity market design


21/02/25
News
21/02/25

German power industry split on capacity market design

London, 21 February (Argus) — Stakeholders in the German power market are divided on how best to implement a capacity market in Germany, or whether it is needed at all, Argus heard on the sidelines of the E-World conference in Essen last week. Instead of entertaining the "misleading" debate over centralised versus decentralised mechanisms, in which the government tries to "delegate accountability for security of supply", what is really needed is "centralised accountability with decentralised assets", Stefan Joerg-Goebel, senior vice-president for Germany at utility Statkraft, said. "The market should be centrally organised but technologies bidding into the market should include, for example, decentralised demand-side response and batteries," he said. But "only the state can really secure supply". Transmission system operator Amprion prefers a centralised capacity segment with a "local component" over the combined capacity market proposal, according to Peter Lopion, consultant in the firm's international regulation management and market development team. He emphasised the importance of knowing "when and where" power plants will come on line. Amprion also stressed that "incentives for grid-serving behaviour" are needed for batteries in particular . In contrast, a decentralised capacity market — not too dissimilar to that of France — is the "best solution" for Germany, although it would first need to adapt to the "German reality", Davide Orifici, director of public and regulatory affairs at energy exchange Epex, said. Such a system would "better help to integrate flexibility" and "further develop demand response", he said, adding that the impression that a centralised system would be simpler is "false". And a decentralised element is "crucial" to "fully leveraging the potential of the demand side", according to Jan Bruebach, managing director at utility MVV. Nevertheless, the addition of the centralised element would add "long-term security" and thus the German energy ministry BMWK's combined proposal is "fine". And while not specifying a particular design, "something at least similar to a capacity market" is important for security of supply and to "provide incentives to hold capacity on stand-by" during periods of low renewable generation, said Andre Jaeger, senior vice-president of product management at trading and risk management firm Ion Commodities. Kerstin Andreae of energy and water association BDEW agreed at a press conference that Germany "needs" the transition to a capacity market. But Peter Reitz, chief executive of energy exchange EEX, does not see the introduction of a capacity market in Germany as being essential. "The same effect can be achieved much more cheaply by introducing the obligation to deliver into the energy-only market," he said, although a decentralised market would "interfere the least with liquidity". And the introduction of a capacity market in Germany would be "costly", Andy Sommer, head of fundamental analysis and modelling at utility Axpo, said. The costs would probably be absorbed by grid operators and the state, and eventually offloaded on to end-consumers, he said. Energy ministry BMWK in August opened a consultation on the country's future power market system, with four options to finance controllable power capacities: a capacity-hedging mechanism through peak price hedging, a decentralised capacity market, a centralised capacity market, and finally, the ministry's preferred option of a "combined capacity market". Despite the deadline for member states to incorporate the EU-mandated electricity market design having passed on 17 January, the design will "probably" be implemented by the next government, BMWK deputy director Andre Poschmann said at an industry event last month . The capacity market question is likely to draw the most political attention after the federal election on 23 February, Joerg-Goebel said, adding that the successful continuation of the coal phase-out — which is currently an "uncomfortable issue" for market participants — can be "fixed" only with new capacity. And without a capacity mechanism, it will be "very difficult" to invest in new peak generation plants, Bruebach said, with Lopion adding that the coal phase-out is "dependent on" new capacity mechanisms. A bidding zone split would harm liquidity And the decision over whether to split Germany into multiple bidding zones remains a concern, with Argus having heard a general consensus that a bidding zone split would negatively affect liquidity in power trading. Larger price zones acting as a "larger mass" are better for liquidity, according to Reitz, citing the German-Austrian bidding zone split and subsequent reduction in Austrian power liquidity. A split would cause "disruption" to the entire market, owing to regulatory changes and the loss in liquidity, agreed Joachim Bertsch, senior business development manager at utility RWE, while Bruebach said it would "crush" liquidity, disadvantage smaller market participants and drive up costs for industries in the south of the country. While BMWK in August rejected the "reconfiguration" of the single German-Luxembourg bidding zone , the "pressure" to introduce multiple bidding zones will intensify if grid expansion does not, according to Joerg-Goebel, while Parasram said he believes "some form of split" will happen. By Bea Leverett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan selects Tomakomai as first CCS test drilling site


21/02/25
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21/02/25

Japan selects Tomakomai as first CCS test drilling site

Osaka, 21 February (Argus) — The Japanese government has chosen Tomakomai in northern Hokkaido prefecture as the first location for exploratory drilling to develop commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects by the April 2030-March 2031 fiscal year. The trade and industry ministry Meti on 21 February selected the 9,624.99 hectare (96mn m²) area offshore Tomakomai city for test drilling to assess economic viability and safety of the potential CCS project. The information, such as cumulative storage capacity and annual injection pace as well as any stratum breaks, is necessary to move forward with the final investment decision on the project, a Meti official said. Meti is planning to hold a public tender to select a company that will adequately conduct exploratory drilling in the appointed area, with the bid open from 21 February-21 May. The government hopes to begin drilling by the end of 2025. Tokyo decided to start exploratory drilling in Tomakomai given that the area's underground structure can store CO2 and has a regional understanding of CCS projects, Meti minister Yoji Muto said on 21 February. The government-led CCS demonstration was conducted in Tomakomai, with around 300,000t of CO2 injected in 2016-19. Theoretical storage capacity at Tomakomai is 1.5mn-2mn t/yr, according to a consortium formed by Japanese refiner Idemitsu, upstream firm Japex and utility Hokkaido Electric Power. This is marginal compared with Japan's CO2 emissions of around 1bn t in the April 2022-March 2023 fiscal year, but is still 10-15 times larger than the 100,000 t/yr injection from the Tomakomai pilot project. The consortium is currently conducting feed front engineering design work to develop a CCS value chain in the Tomakomai area, supported by state-owned energy agency Jogmec. Japan's parliament approved a bill in May 2024 outlining administrative rules for domestic exploratory drilling and storage operations for CCS, which requires government permission. The regulations for test drilling operations took effect in November 2024, while regulations for CO2 storage and pipeline transportation will be enforced by 23 May 2026. Jogmec currently supports initial engineering works for nine CCS projects , including four overseas ventures, as part of Tokyo's strategy to ensure commercial utilisation of the technology by 2030-31. Meti has secured ¥32bn ($213mn) to assist with the projects. CCS is necessary to decarbonise the hard-to-abate industries, as well as to enable continued use of thermal generation to ensure stable electricity supplies. Meti previously estimated the country will need to capture and store around 120mn-240mn t/yr of CO2 by 2050 to achieve carbon neutrality. By Motoko Hasegawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Oil, biofuel lobbies unite for ‘robust’ RFS: Update


20/02/25
News
20/02/25

Oil, biofuel lobbies unite for ‘robust’ RFS: Update

Updates with comments from trade groups, details throughout. New York, 20 February (Argus) — Oil and biofuel groups, at loggerheads years ago over the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), have united around a call for US regulators to set "robust" biofuel blend mandates for future years. A diverse coalition of 11 trade associations — including the American Petroleum Institute, Clean Fuels Alliance America, farm groups, and fuel marketers — said in a Wednesday letter to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that the RFS is a way to "advance liquid fuels" and "ensure consumers have a choice of how they fuel their vehicles". They want EPA, which is behind schedule on setting volume mandates for 2026, to set multiyear standards that better reflect recent growth in feedstock availability and production capacity than past RFS regulations. "We're trying to send a signal to the administration: hey, we're in more agreement than we used to be," American Petroleum Institute vice president of downstream policy Will Hupman told Argus . "We want to work constructively with you on this. We understand we're going to need all energy sources and supplies." The letter reflects the increasingly aligning interests of groups that formerly split over biofuels. Many oil companies that opposed the RFS in its early years have since invested heavily in fuels like renewable diesel, making strong government biofuel mandates crucial for their businesses, too. And producers of petroleum and biofuel products alike fear that rising electric vehicle adoption, aided by policies during the administration of President Joe Biden, could curb liquid fuel demand. It is unclear how durable any coalition of oil, biofuel, and farm groups will prove, especially for more divisive issues like RFS exemptions for small refineries. The oil industry is not united either, since small merchant refiners with less ability to blend biofuels have generally been more hostile to the RFS than larger integrated companies. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, which did not sign the letter, said that it looks forward "to engaging with EPA and other stakeholders to set realistic and achievable RFS standards anchored in the law". Still, the letter reflects some attempt among the signatories to downplay disagreements that surfaced around past RFS rules, signaling to President Donald Trump's administration that it need not delay program updates. The groups say they support, for instance, "strong, steady volumes" of not just biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuels but conventional biofuels too. While refiners can meet conventional obligations by blending excess amounts of lower-carbon fuels from other program categories, oil interests have previously criticized EPA for setting conventional requirements above expected corn ethanol consumption. The prior US administration set a plan for proposing new RFS volumes next month and finalizing them by the end of 2025 , though it is unclear whether Trump officials plan to meet that timeline. Two biofuel groups have sued EPA over its delays setting new mandates, a process which in the past has resulted in the government and industry coming to a negotiated agreement around a new timeline. Under the RFS program, EPA sets annual mandates for blending different types of biofuels into the conventional fuel supply. Refiners comply by blending biofuels themselves or buying credits from those who do. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US cites 'energy emergency' to expedite water permits


20/02/25
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20/02/25

US cites 'energy emergency' to expedite water permits

Washington, 20 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump's administration is citing an "energy emergency" as the basis to fast-track nearly 700 water permits, including those tied to a tunnel for Enbridge's Line 5 pipeline, LNG infrastructure projects, solar farms and electric transmission lines. Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office, unlocking permitting powers that are typically used in response to natural disasters. The US Army Corps of Engineers has subsequently reclassified hundreds of permit applications for review under expedited emergency procedures, in a move that environmentalists say they plan to challenge in court based on violations of the Clean Water Act and Endangered Species Act. "The Trump administration is planning to skirt legally-required review processes in order to fast-track permits for dirty energy projects under the guise of an energy ‘emergency'", Sierra Club policy director Mahyar Sorour said. The Corps is responsible for issuing water permits for projects that cross streams, rivers, wetlands and other water bodies. Issuing permits sometimes requires the agency to prepare a detailed environmental review that is open to comment and can take years to finish. The water permits classified for emergency treatment include a repair project for Sabine Pass LNG in Louisiana, dredging for Elba Island LNG in Georgia, temporary construction related to Port Arthur LNG in Texas, solar projects in dozens of states, and pipeline projects ExxonMobil is pursuing in Texas. Enbridge delayed construction of a protective tunnel for its Line 5 pipeline to 2026 because of water permitting delays . But environmentalists say the administration cannot cite an energy emergency — which they say does not exist — as justification to bypass permitting rules prescribed by the US Congress. The Corps has also provided emergency treatment to projects with no apparent connection to energy production, such as a housing project in southern California and a gold mine in Idaho, according to an online database. The Corps did not respond to detailed questions but said it was "in the process of reviewing active permit applications relative to the executive order." Congress is continuing to lay groundwork for a bipartisan permitting bill that supporters say could make it faster and cheaper to build pipelines, power plants, electric transmission lines, renewable energy projects and transportation infrastructure. But Democratic leaders are threatening to vote against such a bill so long as Trump continues to "pause" billions of dollars in funding for clean energy projects provided by the Inflation Reduction Act and other laws. "Until the administration shows it will honor its oath to faithfully and impartially execute the laws, we can have zero confidence that any legislative compromise on permitting reform will be executed lawfully," US senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-Rhode Island) said at a permitting hearing on 19 February. Oil industry and renewable groups are continuing to push for a comprehensive permitting bill, which they say would bring down project costs and help the US meet surging electricity demand from data centers and manufacturers. Permitting changes are "needed for all technologies, and they are needed to meet our energy demand in the future," Business Council for Sustainable Energy president Lisa Jacobson said. "You can't walk away from those facts or that imperative." By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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