Australia's OCE sees higher LNG export earnings

Market: Natural gas
01/04/25

Australia's Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) has revised up its LNG export earnings forecasts for the present fiscal year and the next, given global supply issues and higher than expected prices.

Seasonal pressures — including higher winter demand in Europe owing to lower renewable energy output and an end to Russian gas flows via Ukraine — have increased prices, the OCE's Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) March report said.

The OCE raised its expectations for the average LNG price for the fiscal year to 30 June by 10pc (see table), while increasing its forecast for the following year by 14pc from its previous report. Receipts predicted in 2024-25 have been forecast A$8bn ($5bn) higher to A$72bn, while 2025-26 earnings will likely reach A$66bn, up from A$60bn in December's REQ.

Asian demand continues to strengthen, even with Japan and South Korean import levels likely peaking. The OCE noted LNG's growing popularity as a transport fuel in China and record-high Indian imports last year, given increased pressure on power grids.

Higher prices have failed to dampen demand in southeast Asia — including Malaysia, Bangladesh, Singapore and Thailand — while Taiwan's backtracking on renewable targets, coupled with artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor sector growth, will increase energy demand there.

Qatari and US investment in new supply will add 5pc to global export volumes in 2025, while demand witll grow by just 2.5pc, but the REQ expects this year's imports and exports will gradually balance.

Greenfield projects

The biggest challenge for Australian projects appears to be a lack of greenfield projects, following the expected completion of the 8mn t/yr Scarborough and 3.7mn t/yr Barossa projects in July-December 2026 and July-September 2025 respectively. The impact of these backfill operations in offsetting gradual declines at the 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf LNG facility will have ceased by 2029-30, with exports falling by 2mn t/yr to 78mn t/yr.

But oil and gas exploration spending is increasing after years of declines, the OCE said, with onshore search expenditure rising from A$190mn in July-September last year to A$285mn in October-December 2024. Offshore spending rose from A$125mn to A$178mn in the same period, indicating that higher prices are driving greater confidence.

The ANEA price — the Argus assessment for spot LNG deliveries to northeast Asia — for first and second-half May were assessed at $12.96/mn Btu and $12.995/mn Btu respectively on 28 March. The ASEA price — Argus' assessment for spot LNG deliveries to southeast Asia — for the same period was $12.72/mn Btu and $12.75/mn Btu.

By Tom Major

Australia LNG export forecasts
	2023-24	2024-25 (f)	2025-26 (f)	2026-27 (z)	2027-28 (z)	2028-29 (z)	2029-30 (z)

Exports (mn t)	81	80	80	82	80	80	78
Export receipts (A$bn)	70	72	68	64	63	57	51
Mar '25 LNG export price (A$/GJ)	16.1	17.1	16.3	14.9	14.8	13.4	12.5
Dec '24 LNG export price (A$/GJ)	16.1	15.6	14.3	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Export price % ± (Mar vs Dec forecasts)	0	10	14	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
f - forecast z - projection
Source: OCE REQ

Argus gas prices ($/mn Btu)

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

CMA CGM LNG bunker demand up 78pc in 2024

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

CMA CGM LNG bunker demand up 78pc in 2024

New York, 3 April (Argus) — France-based shipping company CMA CGM increased its consumption of LNG for bunkering by 78pc in 2024 compared with 2023 as part of its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The company consumed a total of 9.2mn tonnes (t) of marine fuel last year. LNG accounted for 10pc of total demand, or 962,200t of very low sulphur fuel oil equivalent (VLSFOe) up from 539,200t VLSFOe, or 7pc, in 2023. CMA CGM attributed the overall rise in marine fuel consumption to disruptions in the Red Sea, where geopolitical tensions forced its vessels to reroute around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope. The company has established LNG bunker supply partnerships with TotalEnergies and Shell, securing fuel at key ports including Singapore, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Fos-sur-Mer in France, and Shanghai in China. CMA CGM has also invested in French firm Waga Energy, which produces biomethane from landfill gas. The company acknowledges methane slip — unburned methane emissions during combustion — is a key challenge with LNG. To mitigate this, CMA CGM has outfitted select vessels with systems that recirculate and combust leaked gas. It is also implementing high-pressure gas injection and is modifying engine intake valves to ensure more complete combustion. Looking ahead, CMA CGM plans to expand its dual-fuel fleet significantly by 2029. It will add 153 such vessels, including 129 that can run on LNG and 24 powered on methanol. In addition to LNG and methanol, CMA CGM is increasing its use of shore power. The number of its vessels equipped with shore-side electric power connections rose to 116 in 2024, representing 38pc of its owned fleet, up from 67 vessels (26pc) in 2023. CMA CGM also utilizes biofuels for bunkering, though demand declined to 50,900t in 2024, from 76,800t in 2023 and 99,800t in 2022, representing just 1pc of its total marine fuel use. In northwest Europe, LNG carried a $144/t premium over VLSFO, in March, with VLSFO averaging $485/t, according to Argus data. Bio-LNG and B30 biofuel there were priced at premiums of $396/t and $338/t, respectively. By Stefka Wechsler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. US major trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

South Korea’s GS Energy seeks term LNG from 2028

03/04/25

News

03/04/25

South Korea’s GS Energy seeks term LNG from 2028

Singapore, 3 April (Argus) — South Korean private-sector firm GS Energy's subsidiary GS Energy Trading Singapore is seeking LNG deliveries starting from 1 January 2028, over a 5-15 year period. The first round of offers will be due on 25 April and the second to close on 1 August later this year. The firm has requested volumes of up to 0.81mn t/yr in 2028 and up to 0.97mn t/yr from 2029 onwards. This is equivalent to around 13-14 cargoes/yr in 2028 and about 16-17 cargoes/yr from 2029 onwards, assuming an average LNG cargo size of 60,000t. The cargoes will be delivered to the country's 10.8mn t/yr Boryeong terminal, which is owned by power producers SK E&S and GS Energy. The firm has also specified for offers to be linked to Brent or a hybrid of Brent and Henry Hub. South Korean utility Korea South-East Power in June 2024 also signed an agreement with TotalEnergies for a five-year term delivery of up to 500,000 t/yr of LNG to South Korea from 2027. Meanwhile, state-owned gas incumbent Kogas is expected to operate with a smaller pool of long-term LNG supplies from 2025, with the government granting it more flexibility in its procurement strategy. Long-term contracted supply volumes may typically be priced at a higher premium, and could be deemed as a small price for buyers to secure supply security, traders said. By Naomi Ong Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

02/04/25

News

02/04/25

Australia’s gas leaders hit out at market intervention

Sydney, 2 April (Argus) — Senior figures in Australia's upstream gas sector have hit out at plans for intervention in the heavily regulated industry, as debate continues on how to best address domestic supply shortfalls later this decade. The federal Coalition in March announced National Gas Plan including a 50-100 PJ/yr (1.34bn-2.68bn m³/yr) domestic reservation system aimed at forcing the three LNG exporters based in Queensland's Gladstone to direct more supply to the eastern states' market. But oversupplying the market to drive down prices would destroy the viability of smaller gas projects, Australian independent Beach Energy's chief executive Brett Woods said at a conference in Sydney on 1 April. The domestic-focused firm, which will export some LNG volumes via its Waitsia project in 2025, warns that such a move by the Peter Dutton-led opposition would reduce export incomes while harming Australia's international reputation. The volumes impacted by the policy could reach around 900,000-1.8mn t/yr. Expropriation of developed reserves is equivalent to breaking contracts with LNG buyers and with the foreign and local investors that the country needs for ongoing economic security, Woods said on 1 April. Domestic gas reservation systems put in place by the state governments of Western Australia (WA) and Queensland, designed to keep local markets well supplied, were "clearly supportable", Woods said, but only future supply should be subject to the regulations. LNG terminals, which represent about 70pc of eastern Australia's total gas consumption and shipped 24mn t in 2024 , should not be blamed for the failure of governments to expedite new supply and plan for Australia's gas future, head of Shell Australia Cecile Wake said in response to the Coalition's proposal. Shell's QGC business supplied 15pc of its volumes to the local grid, with the remainder shipped from its 8.5mn t/yr Queensland Curtis LNG project, Wake added. Canberra has moved to promote gas use as a transition fuel to firm renewable energy in line with its 2030 emissions reduction targets, but progress has been slow as reforming laws appear to be hampering development . The state governments, particularly in gas-poor Victoria and New South Wales (NSW), must recognise the need for locally-produced supply and streamline the approvals processes, especially environmental permits, executives said. But despite pleas for an end to years of interventionist policy — including the governing Labor party's measures to cap the price of domestic gas at A$12/GJ , Australia's fractured political environment and rising cost of living has sparked largely populist responses from its leaders. A so-called "hung" parliament is likely to result from the 3 May poll , with a variety of mainly left-leaning independents representing an anti-fossil fuel agenda expected to control the balance of power in Australia's parliament. LNG debate sharpens Debate on the causes of southern Australia's gas deficit has persisted, and the ironic outcome of underinvestment in gas supply could be LNG re-imports from Gladstone to NSW, Victoria and South Australia, making fracked coal-bed methane — liquefied in Queensland and regasified — a likely higher-emissions alternative to pipeline supply. Several developers are readying for this possibility , which is considered inevitable without action to increase supply in Victoria or NSW, increase winter storages or raise north-south pipeline capacity. Australian pipeline operator APA appears to have the most to lose out of the active firms in the gas sector. APA chief executive Adam Watson this week criticised plans for imports, because relying on LNG will set the price of domestic gas at a detrimental level, raise emissions and decrease reliability of supply, Watson said. The firm is planning to increase its eastern pipeline capacity by 25pc to bring new supplies from the Bass, Surat and Beetaloo basins to market. But investment certainty is needed or Australia will risk needing to subsidise coal-fired power for longer if sufficient gas is unavailable to back up wind and solar generators with peaking power, Watson said. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more