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US services grow at slowest pace in 9 months: ISM

  • Market: Crude oil, Metals
  • 03/04/25

The US services sector expanded in March at the slowest pace since last June, with orders, export orders and employment sliding into contraction, as companies braced for tariffs threatened by the US administration.

The headline purchasing managers' index (PMI) slowed to 50.8 in March from 53.5 the prior month, according to the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) latest survey on activity in the biggest part of the economy. New orders slowed to 50.4 from 52.2, and employment fell to 46.2, showing contraction, from 53.9 the prior month. The breakeven threshold between growth and contraction is 50.

New export orders fell to 45.8 in March from 52.1 the prior month. Imports rose to 52.6 from 49.6.

The weakening services gauge follows ISM's manufacturing PMI, reported on 1 April, that showed factory activity fell to 49 in March, the first contraction in three months, which followed more than two years of contraction. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNOW tracker on Thursday forecast a 2.8pc annual contraction in US gross domestic product in the first quarter, which will be reported at the end of April.

Services business activity/production grew to 55.9 last month from 54.4 the prior month. The price index fell to 60.9 from 62.6, showing slowing price growth.

By Bob Willis


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10/04/25

EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty

EIA slashes WTI outlook by $7/bl on trade uncertainty

Calgary, 10 April (Argus) — The US light sweet crude benchmark will be nearly $7/bl lower this year than previously expected, with an ongoing trade war stifling global demand by nearly 500,000 b/d, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today. WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma, is expected to average $63.88/bl in 2025, the agency said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), lower by $6.80/bl from its March forecast. It will fall further to $57.48/bl in 2026, or $7.49/bl lower from the prior STEO. Brent prices saw similar downward revisions and is now forecast at $67.68/bl in 2025 and $61.48/bl in 2026. The latest STEO was to be released on 8 April, but the EIA said it needed more time to rerun its models in light of last week's sweeping tariff action by US president Donald Trump and subsequent retaliation by China. The protectionist measures have led major banks to cut oil price forecasts amid growing concerns over a stagnating US economy. The EIA completed its analysis on 7 April meaning it did not incorporate the most recent developments, including Trump's 9 April pause on the highest levels of punitive tariffs against key US trading partners and an increase in Chinese tariffs . The latest forecast is "subject to significant uncertainty," said the EIA. Global consumption of oil and liquid fuels is now expected to average 103.64mn b/d in 2025, lower by 490,000 b/d from the previous forecast. Consumption in 2026 is forecast at 104.68mn b/d, lower by 620,000 b/d. Global production meanwhile was lowered by to 104.1mn b/d for 2025 and to 105.35mn b/d for 2026. These are lower from the prior forecast by 70,000 b/d and 43,000 b/d, respectively. In the US, domestic consumption is projected to average 20.38mn b/d in 2025, lower by 70,000 b/d compared to last month's STEO. Consumption was lowered for 2026 by 110,000 b/d at 20.49mn b/d. Domestic production will come in at 13.51mn b/d in 2025 and 13.56mn b/d in 2026, the EIA said. This is lower by 100,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d, respectively, compared to the March STEO. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer


10/04/25
News
10/04/25

Norway plans to cut GHGs, but remain oil, gas producer

London, 10 April (Argus) — Norway's government has proposed a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of a minimum 70-75pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline, but has also committed to the country remaining "a stable and predictable supplier of oil and gas produced with low emissions". The government today set out plans for a 2035 GHG reduction target, as well as a wider climate plan for the country. The 2035 GHG reduction targets build on Norway's 2030 goal of "at least" a 55pc reduction in GHGs, again from 1990 levels. Norway has a legislated goal of "a low-emission society" by 2050 — GHG reductions of 90-95pc from the 1990 baseline. Norway's government underlined its commitment to Paris climate agreement goals and phasing out the use of fossil fuels "towards 2050", but also said that it would "not prepare a strategy for the end phase of Norwegian oil and gas". "The government's plan is about phasing out emissions, not industries", it said, noting that Norway is "a significant contributor to Europe's energy security". Norway is the largest producer and only net exporter of oil and gas in Europe. "The government will further develop the petroleum industry and facilitate the future provision of fields… production will continue to be efficient and with low emissions," the government said. It aims for the country's oil and gas sector — the country's highest-emitting industry — to bring emissions from production to net zero in 2050. The bulk of oil and gas emissions are from downstream use — known as scope 3. Norway plans to achieve the majority of its proposed 70-75pc GHG cuts through national measures, including reduced fossil fuel use and both technical and nature-based carbon removals. It also plans to purchase emissions reductions from outside the EU and European Economic Area. This refers to internationally transferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) — emission credits — under Article 6 of the Paris climate agreement. Norway's parliament will consider the proposals. Once legislated in the country's climate act, Norway plans to communicate its updated plans to the UN. Signatories to the Paris climate agreement are expected to submit updated climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — to UN climate body the UNFCCC every five years. The deadline for NDCs setting out climate goals up to 2035 was in February, but many countries have yet to submit plans . By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US inflation eased for 2nd month in March


10/04/25
News
10/04/25

US inflation eased for 2nd month in March

Houston, 10 April (Argus) — US inflation slowed more than forecast in March, pulled lower by falling gasoline prices and slowing shelter inflation, as the new US administration's tariff policies have prompted concerns of a global economic slowdown. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual rate of 2.4pc in March, down from 2.8pc in February and the lowest rate since November 2024, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a 2.6pc rate for March. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose at a 2.8pc annual rate, down from a 3pc annual rate the prior month and the lowest since March 2021. The deceleration in inflation came a month after President Donald Trump began to levy tariffs on imports from China and on steel, aluminum and automobiles, starting in February. Several tariff deadlines were pushed back, including a three-month pause enacted this week on much steeper tariffs for most countries. The tariffs have prompted companies and consumers to pull back on investments and some purchases while shaking up financial markets, and heightening concerns of a global recession. The energy index fell by an annual 3.3pc in March following a 0.2pc annual decline in February. Gasoline fell by 9.8pc after a 3.1pc decline. Piped natural gas rose by 9.4pc. Food rose by an annual 3pc, accelerating from 2.6pc. Eggs surged by an annual 60.4pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by an annual 4pc in March, slowing from 4.2pc in February and the smallest increase since November 2021. Services less energy services rose by 3.7pc, slowing from 4.1pc in February. New vehicles were unchanged after an annual 0.3pc drop in February. Transportation services, which includes what maintenance and repair, insurance and airfares, rose by an annual 3.1pc, slowing from 6pc in February. Car insurance was up by an annual 7.5pc and airline fares fell by 5.2pc. CPI fell by 0.1pc in March after a monthly 0.2pc gain in February. Core inflation rose by 0.1pc for the month. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty


09/04/25
News
09/04/25

Colombian crude gains on US tariff uncertainty

Sao Paulo, 9 April (Argus) — Colombian heavy sour crudes have reached their narrowest discounts to Ice Brent in at least four years, supported by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and tight supplies of similar grades. Castilla's discount to Ice Brent was $3.50/bl on Tuesday and Vasconia's was at $1.45/bl, $4.40/bl and $3.15/bl tighter than on 2 January, respectively. Castilla has not reached that narrow of a level against the benchmark since early 2021 and Vasconia has not since mid-2019. Outright prices were $60.89/bl for Vasconia and $58.84/bl for Castilla on Tuesday. Colombian crude discounts started to narrow in January after US president Donald Trump mentioned plans for a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, which produce competing heavy sours. Amid the uncertainty, buyers opted to secure supply that might not face tariffs, sources said, despite delays in tariffs implementation in early February and March. But a sweeping executive order last week excluded energy commodities from tariffs, as well as trade covered under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA). Then on Wednesday Trump announced he will pause many of the tariffs on other products for 90 days, but no changes have been announced for energy imports . Despite Trump's tariff exemptions on crude imports to the US, tight availability of heavy supply for US Gulf refiners could still support relative values for Colombian grades. Subbing in Colombian crudes are seen as good substitutes for heavy crude from the US' nearest neighbors, especially Mexican supplies, which are widely used by US Gulf coast refiners. Additionally, Colombia's geographical location makes shipping to the US Gulf coast quicker and less costly compared with other South American countries, such as Ecuador, which also produces heavy sour crude. Further tightening heavy supply for Gulf coast refiners, the US government announced in March that the deadline for the end of Chevron's waiver to produce in Venezuela is 27 May, stopping the flow of crude to the US from its joint venture with state-owned PdV. Chevron brought about 222,000 b/d in Venezuelan crude to the US from January-November 2024. according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Even with the volume representing a fraction of Gulf coast imports, it represents almost 30pc of total Colombian output. Its production reached 760,000 b/d in January, according to oil services chamber Campetrol, citing figures from hydrocarbons agency ANH. Further US tariffs on countries that take delivery of Venezuelan oil and natural gas could also make Colombian barrels more attractive, although Ecuadorean crudes are possible regional supply alternatives too. Meanwhile, Mexico's state-owned Pemex has faced quality issues with its crude production since late last year, which could lead to Gulf coast buyers turning to Colombian barrels as alternatives. Pemex acknowledged issues with salt and water levels in its crude in February but denied that international buyers have rejected shipments because of those concerns. Mexico's policy of expanding domestic refining has also contributed to a decline in crude exports to the US in recent years. Colombian crude values have also likely been supported by firmer competing Canadian crude values at the US Gulf coast. Canadian crude differentials have firmed in part because of upgrader turnaround season in Alberta's oil sands region, slowing production. The shutdown of the 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline from the region after a spill in North Dakota on 8 April also limited supply, buttressing prices. By João Scheller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update


09/04/25
News
09/04/25

Delta pulls full-year forecast amid US tariffs: Update

Adds details from earnings call throughout. Houston, 9 April (Argus) — Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty. "Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call. Delta said it hoped the growing US tariff war with the world would be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee. "If you start to put a 20pc incremental cost on top of an aircraft, it gets very difficult to make that math work," chief executive Ed Bastion said in an earnings call today. In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, Bastion said. Delta expects revenue in the second quarter of 2025 to be either 2pc higher or 2pc lower from the year earlier period with continued resilience in premium, loyalty and international bookings offsetting softness in domestic and standard flights. Punitive taxes on imports from key US trading partners were implemented on Wednesday despite President Donald Trump's claims of multiple trade deals in the making. Trump's 10pc baseline tariff on imports from nearly every country already went into effect on 5 April. The higher, "reciprocal" taxes went into effect today, although at midday Wednesday he announced a 90-day pause on most of the higher tariffs, while increasing tariffs on Chinese imports even higher. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. Confidence craters in 1Q Corporate travel started the year with momentum, but a reduction in corporate confidence stalled growth in February and March, Delta said. For the first quarter, corporate sales were up by low-single digits compared to the prior year, with strength led by the banking and technology sectors. The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period. Delta said it has seen "a significant drop off in bookings" out of Canada amid the trade disputes with that country which started earlier than the broader US tariffs. Meanwhile, Mexico is "a mixed bag," the company said. Delta is considering reducing capacity levels in Mexico and Canada in the future. The company reported a profit of $240mn in the first quarter of 2025, up from $37mn in the first quarter of 2024. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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