Kazakhstan does not expect any major reduction in crude output in April after massively exceeding its Opec+ target in March.
Kazakhstan's crude production rose by 43,000 b/d to a record 1.79mn b/d in March, deputy energy minister Alibek Zhamauov said today, putting it 322,000 b/d above its Opec+ target of 1.468mn b/d. He added that Kazakhstan has not yet been able to agree with international oil companies operating the country's largest fields about reducing output.
Kazakh production has surged following a major output increase at the Chevron-led Tengiz field in January — part of the field's future growth project (FGP). Zhamauov said that there has not yet been any agreement on reducing Tengiz output as it "is a very challenging action, especially for Chevron [which] spent $50bn on the FGP project [and] told us it's not possible for them to reduce output".
Tengiz production hit 901,000 b/d in March, Zhamauov said, compared to previous levels of 600,000-660,000 b/d. Kazakhstan's second-largest oil field, Kashagan, which is also operated by international firms, produced 387,000 b/d in March, he said. Neither are expected to reduce output in April, he added.
Zhamauov said that Kazakhstan will try to reduce output from smaller fields operated by domestic producers such as state-controlled Kazmunaigaz. But any decrease from these fields will not be enough to offset the rise from Tengiz.
Kazakhstan remains one of the Opec+ alliance's largest overproducers, despite repeatedly pledging to compensate for exceeding its target since January 2024. This has frustrated other Opec+ members, which have largely stuck to their production targets.
Kazakhstan's compensation plan states its March production should have been 1.43mn b/d.
Kazakhstan's continued overproduction is understood to have contributed towards the decision by Opec+ members to start increasing output from April.
Zhamauov said that Kazakhstan's crude production and exports have not been impacted by the closure of two single-point moorings (SPMs) at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal on Russia's Black Sea coast late last month.
Kazakhstan's crude exports were 1.41mn b/d in March, up from 1.39mn b/d in February, while refinery runs were 370,000 b/d, up by 22,000 b/d, Zhamauov said. Condensate production was 290,000 b/d, compared to 278,000 b/d in February. This brings Kazakhstan's total liquids production in March to 2.08mn b/d.
