US airlines are signaling an uncertain outlook for jet fuel demand, with most withdrawing 2025 financial guidance because President Donald Trump's evolving tariff plans have made it difficult to predict travel demand.
Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and Alaska Airlines all withdrew financial guidance for the full year when reporting first-quarter earnings this month. Global economic uncertainty prompted United Airlines to provide two outlooks, one based on a weaker but stable economy and a second scenario in which the US falls into a recession.
The uncertain demand outlook comes even as jet fuel costs are 11-15pc cheaper than a year earlier, with prices projected to fall to a 4-year low in 2025.
Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump's high and repeatedly changing tariff levels. He has imposed an across-the-board 10pc on imports from most trading partners, 25pc on some imports from Canada and Mexico and 145pc on most imports from China — and separately, a 25pc tariff on imported steel, aluminium, cars and auto parts. Beijing has responded with a 125pc tariff on imports from the US.
The growing trade war has prompted the IMF to significantly lower its outlook for global economic growth in 2025-26.
With no clear path on how to navigate the changing political and economic landscape, businesses and consumers have grown more cautious. Domestic and international air travel began to falter last month as Trump rolled out his trade policies. US airline passenger volumes declined by 15pc to 16.48mn passengers in the week ended 8 March, down from an eight-month high in the week prior.
Brewing anti-American sentiment and concern about US immigration policy also may be lowering global demand for air travel to the US. The number of European travelers to the US totalled 1.03mn in March, lower by 15pc from the same month last year. This was the first time that European arrivals in the US fell on the year since March 2021, during the Covid-19 pandemic.
