Argus Eurobob E10 Gasoline
Overview
Europe is moving to E10 as the standard for regular grade gasoline. Stay ahead of the curve by moving your gasoline pricing to Argus non-oxy (E10). As of, 1 January 2024, Argus has changed the Eurobob oxy (E5) index to a premium or discount to the non-oxy (E10) benchmark. The non-oxy (E10) price will continue to be based on a volume-weighted average of spot market transactions.
EU-wide targets driven from mandates such as the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, have increased the need for ethanol-blended gasoline across Europe. In most European countries, gasoline must now contain either up to 5pc or 10pc ethanol. Due to its higher bioethanol content, E10 gasoline is being rolled out across more countries in Europe as a means for governments and companies to help meet greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets.
European gasoline is moving to E10
Elliot Radley, editor of Argus European Products, provides the tools and insight to navigate one of the biggest changes to the European gasoline market in over a decade.
Watch nowArgus Eurobob gasoline barge spread
European gasoline - E5 vs E10
Europe is moving to E10 gasoline usage, impacts will include the UK’s CO2 emissions cut by 750,000 t/yr, the equivalent to removing 350,000 cars off the road, and the use of E10 gasoline will reduce GHG emissions of a gasoline powered car by ~2%.
Key price assessments
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Argus Eurobob transition to E10
The Argus Eurobob oxy assessment is a diff to the Argus Eurobob non-oxy assessment. Get a detailed overview into this change and what’s to come.
Market reports - Oct 2023European gasoline has changed
The European gasoline market has changed to a predominantly E10 market, and Argus assessments are shifting from next year to reflect that change.
VideoEuropean gasoline is moving to E10
Elliot Radley, editor of Argus European Products, provides the tools and insight to navigate one of the biggest changes to the European gasoline market in over a decade.
Latest European gasoline news
Prompt European gasoline forward curve in contango
Prompt European gasoline forward curve in contango
London, 2 July (Argus) — Prompt Eurobob gasoline time spreads have entered a contango structure — where prompt values are at a discount to forward prices — signalling the weakest structure for the time of year since the pandemic year of 2020. July Eurobob swaps were at a 75¢/t discount to August swaps at the close on 1 July. The spread had been in a relatively shallow backwardation — when prompt prices are at a premium to later dates — in recent sessions, although it has been narrowing steadily from $6.50/t on 1 June. It is uncommon for the forward structure to be in contango at this time of year. In the corresponding session last year the July swap was at a $19/t premium to the August swap, and since 2009 the current scenario has occurred only twice — in 2020 when much of Europe was under Covid-19 lockdown measures, and in 2016 when the front of the curve was pressured by high European inventories and high US supply. The contango structure reached $5.50/t on both occasions. The recent move builds on weakness exhibited last month , when the front of the forward curve between June and July moved into contango, a structure which was maintained through the rest of June. Demand for gasoline has failed to meet traders' expectations this European summer. Stock levels have been robust, particularly in the US where high refinery utilisation rates have boosted supply and stifled the requirement for European product. This was shown in gasoline crack spreads to North Sea Dated crude in June , which moved sharply lower — counter-seasonally — to an average of $14.87/bl, $5.83/bl lower than in May and down by $9.68/bl compared with year ago. There are already signs of this reversing however. In early trading today the front of the forward curve strengthened, with July marked at parity to August, according to brokers. Discounts in the spot barge market at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub have narrowed relative to August Eurobob swaps today, indicating firmer demand, with participants saying there is a more workable transatlantic arbitrage. By Jonah Sweeney Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Viewpoint: European gasoline trade in for a shake up
Viewpoint: European gasoline trade in for a shake up
London, 18 December (Argus) — Gasoline flows out of Europe are likely to change in 2024 as traders seek to find an outlet for the region's growing oversupply in the face of tightening regulations and the long-awaited emergence of west African refining capacity. Europe is structurally oversupplied with gasoline, and relies heavily on exports to clear its overhang. Theoretically, this requirement will be increasing as European refineries use lighter slates in the absence of Russian Urals. Light sweet crudes — which yield a greater volume of light products like gasoline — accounted for around 41pc of European imports in 2023, compared with 36pc last year, according to Vortexa data. West Africa is Europe's primary outlet, accounting for around 28pc — or 13.2mn t — of European gasoline exports in 2023. Trade between Europe and west Africa underwent rapid change from April, as the export of cargoes migrated rapidly away from the Netherlands to Belgium, following the Netherlands' decision to tighten its export regulations on fuel quality in April ( see table ). In the first quarter of the year, over 42pc of exports to west Africa originated from the Netherlands, with 30pc from Belgium. But from April to December that flipped, with 48pc of exports leaving Europe from Belgium, and only 21pc from the Netherlands. The Netherlands had been looking to create a level playing field by encouraging its neighbours to implement similarly stringent regulation. Belgium's energy and environment ministers have outlined plans to bring the country into line with the Netherlands' stricter export regulations, and the Belgian government told Argus that the law could be adopted in the first quarter of 2024. When this happens, exports to west Africa from Europe's largest blending and exporting hub, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA), will have to be of higher quality, cutting into blending and refining margins as lower quality streams will be left over and have no clear outlet. Traders have mixed views on the consequences of homogenised ARA regulation. West African demand could still be met by European cargoes that arrive via another jurisdiction. Ports in the west Mediterranean, such as Gibraltar and Algeciras, or ports in north Africa like Skhira, Tunisia, could be short-term solutions for blending. Other territories along the route like the Canary Islands could emerge as blending hubs. The market could be in for a wider shake-up too. The Mideast Gulf may take some of Europe's market share in west Africa as new refineries such as al-Zour and Duqm continue to ramp up. Traders have also hinted that more US Gulf coast gasoline could find a home in west Africa, while gasoline that previously flowed from the Gulf coast to the US Atlantic coast could be replaced with cargoes from northwest Europe. Latent Lagos, until now? To add another layer of complexity and uncertainty — after years of waiting — refining capacity in Nigeria appears to be on track to grow in 2024. Dangote is expected to start up, albeit at a lower throughput than its 650,000 b/d nameplate capacity indicates. At the same time, the 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt plant is also due to restart, having been offline since April 2021. Dangote is due to receive six cargoes of crude totalling 6mn bl in December and early January, to support the plant's start-up requirement of 350,000 b/d. At full capacity the refinery will produce 326,000 b/d of gasoline, conforming to Euro V specifications. Traders are more tentative about the projected timeline for its start-up, and expect teething issues. But regardless, any refining capacity that results in lower volumes being exported to Europe's largest export outlet will see greater supply remaining in Europe, weighing on gasoline prices. Regulatory hurdles in northwest Europe and increasing supply in west Africa will mean that the long-established trade route between the regions will experience swift and profound change in 2024. By Jonah Sweeney Netherlands export specifications From April Before April Gasoline Sulphur 50ppm 150ppm Benzene 1% 1% Manganese 2 mg/l 6 mg/l Diesel Sulphur 50ppm 350ppm European gasoline exports to west Africa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2023. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Eurobob gasoline trade rises in November
Eurobob gasoline trade rises in November
London, 11 December (Argus) — Trade in Argus Eurobob gasoline barges was 231,300t in November, up by 17.5pc on the month driven by strong inland demand, particularly for the oxy-grade. Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barge trade fell by 22pc to 73,200t, but oxy gasoline barge trade rose by 54pc to 158,100t. The total was 42pc lower on the year. Northwest European gasoline margins to North Sea Dated crude remained unseasonably wide at an average of $10.70/bl in November, up from $6.32/bl in October and around $3.76/bl above the five-year average. Premiums were lower by 52¢/bl compared with November 2022, when the European market was affected French refining sector strikes and strong transatlantic demand. This November demand primarily stemmed from inland, with export demand lacklustre. Refinery outages and planned maintenance works were widespread in Germany, which tightened supply. Through the month, traders said that E5 supply — a finished grade gasoline for which oxy is the blendstock — was tight, particularly around parts of the Rhine river basin and in southern Germany. This pushed buyers to look towards the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to source gasoline, which supported margins and probably drove trade in the barge market. The largest buyer of Eurobob non-oxy barges in November was trading firm Varo at 54,000t. Varo was also the largest buyer in October at 36,000t. Mabanaft was November's second-largest buyer at 8,000t, followed by ExxonMobil at 5,000t and BMV Mineraloel at 4,200t. The largest seller of non-oxy barges in November was Shell at 39,000t. It was also the largest seller in October at 77,200. The second largest seller in November was BP at 15,100t, followed by Gunvor at 13,100t. The largest buyer of Eurobob oxy gasoline barges in November was Shell at 50,000t, up from 32,000t in October, when the firm was also the largest buyer. The second-largest buyer of Eurobob oxy barges in November was Varo at 31,000t. It bought just 9,000t in October. Litasco was the third largest buyer at 17,000t. TotalEnergies was the largest seller of oxy gasoline barges in November at 64,000t. It was also the largest seller in October at 77,000t. Glencore was the second-largest seller at 43,000t, followed by Trafigura and Gunvor which each sold 12,000t. By Atishya Nayak and Jonah Sweeney Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2023. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
European gasoline exports rise in October
European gasoline exports rise in October
London, 6 November (Argus) — European gasoline exports rose slightly in October compared with September, with higher shipments to Nigeria offsetting lower demand from the US. Around 4.13mn t of gasoline was exported from Europe last month, up by 1pc on September on a daily average basis but down by 18pc compared from October last year, according to Vortexa data. The month-on-month gain was driven by increased exports to west Africa, compensating for a drop in volumes bound for the US. The US was still the largest outlet for European gasoline exports in October, accounting for almost 950,000t of the total. But that marks a 25pc drop on a daily average basis compared with September and a 3pc fall from October 2022. Arbitrage economics for westbound transatlantic shipments were unworkable last month, according to traders, with second-month Rbob futures averaging an $8.61 discount to front-month Eurobob swaps, including the cost of freight and renewable volume obligations. The spread is a bellwether for transatlantic arbitrage viability. Exports to Nigeria surged on the month, reaching 608,000t, nearly two-and-a-half times more than September when exports slumped to their lowest since May 2020. Traders report firmer interest in summer-grade gasoline with a Reid vapour pressure (RVP) rating of 60 kpa in recent weeks, with arbitrage economics for west African blends more workable than for US or winter European grades. Exports to Nigeria were still 60pc lower than in October 2022, with demand at the pump falling sharply since Nigeria's gasoline subsidy was removed in May. Since then, buyers have had increasingly limited access to credit, which has made funding purchases trickier, according to traders. Some 328,000t of European gasoline was shipped to Libya in October, up by 15pc on the month on a daily average basis and by 4.5pc on the year. Saudi Arabia emerged as the fourth-largest recipient, taking 223,000t last month, an unusually high amount. Gasoline flows from Europe to Saudi Arabia were just 297,000t in the first nine months of the year. Regional refinery maintenance, including work on Saudi Arabia's 460,000 b/d Satorp refinery, as well as maintenance in India, which also supplies gasoline to Mideast Gulf, prompted the sharp spike in imports from Europe last month. Gasoline exports to Canada fell by 40pc on the month on a daily average basis and by 17pc on the year to 192,000t in October. The month-on-month decline was largely seasonal as Canada typically looks to Europe to source gasoline during the summer months when driving demand peaks. By Jonah Sweeney Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2023. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
