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Venezuela to direct scarce fuel to loyalists

  • Market: Oil products
  • 30/07/18

Venezuela is taking steps to direct dwindling motor fuel to politically loyal vehicle owners.

President Nicolas Maduro ordered a national census on 3-5 August to determine how many vehicle owners possess a homeland identity card, a document created in first quarter 2017 to strengthen the government's social and political surveillance capabilities.

The homeland identity card, which the government now requires from Venezuelans seeking food and housing assistance, is separate from the longstanding national identity card with a unique identification number that is common in many countries.

Maduro said the census is aimed at reducing waste and smuggling to neighboring countries. "There will be changes in how the national vehicle fleet uses fuel," Maduro said.

Critics including senior oil union officials warn that the census, aimed at linking vehicle ownership to possession of a homeland identity card, is the first step in a plan to tighten government controls by allocating increasingly scarce fuel supplies to government loyalists.

Vehicle owners without valid cards would have to pay higher fuel prices or could be denied fuel altogether, according to a senior official of the ruling socialist party (PSUV) familiar with the government's still-evolving fuel control plans.

Maduro did not mention possible price increases at the pump, where gasoline and diesel, when they can be found, are sold for virtually nothing.

Energy ministry and government officials with direct knowledge of the matter tell Argus that the government plans to raise local gasoline and diesel prices to international levels in conjunction with a new national currency – called the sovereign bolivar – that will be launched on 20 August to replace the now worthless strong bolivar that was created in 2007 by late president Hugo Chavez.

Maduro last raised local fuel prices on 17 February 2016 by less than one US cent per gallon.

Education minister Elias Jaua, a senior PSUV official described by a presidential palace official as one of the architects of the census plan, said the government wants to "progressively internationalize" local fuel prices to erase up to $12bn in annual losses that state-owned PdV incurs from local fuel sales.

At the current black market exchange rate of over 3.5mn strong bolivars per dollar, drivers on paper could buy over 792,500 gallons of gasoline for the equivalent of one US dollar. A Venezuelan 50 cent coin denominated in the new sovereign bolivar still would buy over 13,200 gallons of gasoline at the current local regulated price.

Maduro said the huge disparity between local and international prices is driving massive smuggling to Colombia and other neighboring countries.

Venezuelan military officials working on the country's international borders and Colombian defense and energy ministry officials have said fuel smuggling from Venezuela has fallen significantly in recent years, in line with shortages stemming from PdV's diminished refinery operations.

"The defense ministry now estimates unofficially that less than 15,000 b/d are smuggled by land out of Venezuela compared with over 100,000 b/d as recently as 2015," a Venezuelan defense ministry official tells Argus.

Some of the land-based smuggling has been displaced by more sophisticated illicit waterborne shipments from PdV terminals.

PdV's local refineries with a combined nameplate capacity of 1.3mn b/d "are almost shut down completely," says a senior oil union official at PdV's 940,000 CRP refining complex in Paraguaná. "Local gasoline consumption has dropped below 140,000 b/d, all of it imported mainly through PdV crude-for- fuel swaps with foreign suppliers."

PdV said its refineries are operating normally, and declined further comment.

Venezuela's national vehicle fleet totals over 4.4mn units, including 3.35mn automobiles, over 326,000 heavy cargo trucks, over 385,000 light pickup trucks, almost 100,000 buses, over 62,000 licensed taxis buses and 220,000 motorcycle taxis, according to the transportation ministry. The number of licensed motorcycle taxis vastly understates the number of motorcycles circulating nationally for which there is no accurate registry, the ministry adds.

Independent public passenger and cargo transport groups say that over 85pc of trucks and buses are idle because of a lack of spare parts such as tires, batteries, spark plugs and hoses.


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01/04/25

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

US oil, farm groups push EPA for steep biofuel mandate

New York, 1 April (Argus) — The American Petroleum Institute and biofuel-supporting groups told Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials at a meeting today that the agency should sharply raise advanced biofuel blend mandates for 2026. The coalition told EPA that it supported a biomass-based diesel mandate next year of 5.25bn USG, up from 3.35bn USG this year, and a broader advanced biofuel mandate, including the cellulosic category, at 10bn Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits, up from 7.33bn RINs this year, according to three different groups that attended the meeting. Both mandates would be record highs for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) program. Soybean oil futures and RIN credit prices have risen sharply over the past week on optimism that oil and biofuel interests were working to coordinate volume mandate requests for consideration by President Donald Trump's administration. The coalition is also pushing the agency to set a total conventional volume requirement at 25bn RINs, which would keep an implied mandate for corn ethanol flat at 15bn USG. Ethanol groups had previously eyed a mandate even higher, but limits on the amount of ethanol that can be blended into gasoline make much more-stringent requirements a tough sell to oil refiners. The coalition provided no specific request for the cellulosic biofuel subcategory, where most credit generation comes from biogas. Credits in that category are more expensive, but price concerns have been less potent recently given an EPA proposal to lower previously set cellulosic obligations, signaling that future volume requirements can be cut, too. EPA is aiming to finalize new RFS volume mandates by the end of the year if not earlier, people familiar with the administration's thinking have said. EPA officials signaled at the meeting they were working urgently on the rulemaking. "The agency is intent on getting the RFS program back on the statutory timeline for issuing renewable volume obligation rules," EPA said, declining to comment further on its plans for the rule. The RFS program requires oil refiners and importers to blend biofuels into the conventional fuel supply or buy credits from those who do. Under the program's unique nesting structure, credits from blending lower-carbon biofuels can be used to meet obligations for other program categories. One gallon of corn ethanol generates 1 RIN, but more energy-dense fuels earn more RIN credits per gallon. Some disagreements persist While groups at the meeting were aligned around high-level mandates, how administration officials and courts treat small refinery requests for exemptions from RFS requirements could undercut those targets. Groups present were broadly aligned on asking EPA not to grant widespread exemptions, though there is still disagreement in the industry about how best to account for exempted volumes when deciding requirements for other refiners. Groups present at the meeting today included the American Petroleum Institute and representatives of biofuel producers and crop feedstock suppliers. Some groups that previously engaged with the coalition's efforts to project unity to the Trump administration were not present. And some groups more historically skeptical of the RFS and more supportive of small refinery exemptions — including the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers — have not been closely involved. Fuel marketer groups notably did not attend the meeting after a representative sparred with others in the coalition at an American Petroleum Institute meeting last month. Some retail groups, including the National Association of Convenience Stores and the National Association of Truck Stop Operators, instead sent a letter to EPA today arguing that the groups pushing steep volumes are discounting potential headwinds to the sector from new tax credit policy. Some of the groups advocating for higher biofuel volumes have pointed to high production capacity and feedstock availability, but have preferred to ignore thornier issues like tax credits, lobbyists say. "An overly aggressive increase in advanced biofuel blending mandates under the RFS will be punitive for American consumers" without extending a long-running $1/USG tax credit for biomass-based diesel blenders, the retailers' letter said. That incentive expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which offers subsidies to producers instead of blenders and throttles benefits based on carbon intensity. Generally lower credit values for biomass-based diesel — coupled with the US government's delays setting final regulations on qualifying for the credit — have spurred a sharp drop in biofuel production to start the year. Without a blenders credit, the RFS volume mandates pushed by some groups could increase retail diesel prices by 30¢/USG, the fuel marketers estimate, a potential political headache for a president that ran on curbing consumer costs. Other biofuel groups say that extending the credit would be an uphill battle this year, with some lawmakers and lobbyists instead focused on legislatively tweaking the 45Z incentive's rules to benefit crop feedstocks instead of reverting wholesale to the prior tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey


01/04/25
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01/04/25

Mexico GDP outlook falls again in March survey

Mexico City, 1 April (Argus) — Private-sector analysts lowered Mexico's 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5pc in the central bank's March survey, down by more than a third from the prior forecast, driven by increased concerns over US trade policy and weakening domestic investment. The latest outlook is down from 0.8pc estimated in February and marks the largest of four consecutive reductions in the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth in the central bank's monthly surveys since December. Mexico's economy decelerated in the fourth quarter of 2024 to an annualized rate of 0.5pc from 1.7pc the previous quarter, the slowest expansion since the first quarter of 2021, according to statistics agency data. Uncertainty over US trade policy has weighed on investment and contributed to the slowdown. Concerns have intensified in recent weeks with US president Donald Trump set to announce sweeping new tariffs on 2 April. Mexico is preparing its response, possibly including reciprocal tariffs, on 3 April. A key concern in Mexico is an expiring carveout to the tariffs for treaties aligned with US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement rules of origin. Mexico's economy minister said last week ongoing negotiations aim to secure a "preferential tariff," including a continuance of that exclusion and lower tariffs for goods progressing toward USMCA compliance. The median 2026 GDP growth estimate fell to 1.6pc from 1.7pc in February. Analysts again cited security, governance and trade policy as top constraints to growth. Year-end 2025 inflation expectations edged lower to 3.70pc in March from 3.71pc in February. The central bank's board of governors cut Mexico's target interest rate by 50 basis points to 9pc from 9.5pc on 27 March, citing expectations that inflation will continue to slow toward the central bank's 3pc long-term goal and reach 3.3pc by year-end. The board said it would consider additional cuts of that size at future meetings. Mexico's consumer price index accelerated to an annual 3.77pc in February, as slower growth in agricultural prices was offset by faster inflation in services. The target interest rate is projected to fall to 8pc by year-end, compared with 8.25pc in February's survey. The median exchange rate forecast for end-2025 reflected expectations of the peso ending the year slightly stronger at Ps20.80 to the US dollar from Ps20.85/$1 estimated in the prior forecast. The end-2026 estimate firmed slightly to Ps21.30/$1 from Ps21.36/$1. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February


01/04/25
News
01/04/25

Singapore’s base oil imports edge up in February

Singapore, 1 April (Argus) — Singapore's base oil imports increased for the third consecutive month in February, GTT data show, supported by stable demand in the city state. Import growth slowed in February, in line with a drop in industrial performance. The country's manufacturing output fell by 1.3pc on the year, and by 7.5pc on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, according to data from the Economic Development Board. The overall manufacturing sector grew for the 18th consecutive month, but PMI slipped from 50.9 to 50.7 in February, data from the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management show, in line with growing uncertainties over global trade flows. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Supplies from South Korea recovered from January's five-month low, in line with higher exports from the northeast Asian country, but remained below the five-year monthly average of 12,300t. Lower South Korean volumes were balanced by higher receipts of Taiwanese cargoes, which were likely boosted by delays in customs clearance a month earlier. South Korea and Taiwan are major producers of Group II base oils. Zero imports were recorded from Japan for the third consecutive month. Exports from the Group I supplier have fallen ahead of a series of plant maintenances by Japanese refiners ENEOS and Idemitsu that will affect around 925,000t/yr of refining capacity over February-November. Increased Saudi Arabian cargoes made up for the shortfall in Japanese volumes, with imports recorded for the 10th consecutive month. Saudi Arabia produces Group I and II base oils, but supplies to Singapore likely comprise of mainly Group I volumes because of the regional shortage from permanent plant closures in Japan. By Tara Tang Singapore's base oil imports t Feb'25 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Jan-Feb'25 y-o-y ± % Qatar 23,135.0 -12.2 22.6 49,488.0 74.2 South Korea 9,090.0 30.2 -18.2 16,074.0 -9.3 Taiwan 12,458.0 NA 825.6 12,458.0 119.0 Saudi Arabia 5,306.0 76.9 5.7 8,306.0 65.5 Thailand 5,046.0 -16.4 152.8 11,081.0 234.3 Total 77,915.0 1.9 75.7 154,392.0 129.6 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

US base oil export fell nearly 10pc in Dec

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UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

UK EAC to explore airport expansion, net zero conflict

London, 28 March (Argus) — UK parliament's cross-party environmental audit committee (EAC) has begun an inquiry into whether the country's airport capacity expansion could be achieved in line with its climate and environment targets. "The aviation sector is a major contributor to the UK's carbon emissions, and on the face of it, any expansion in the sector will make net zero even more elusive," EAC chair Toby Perkins said. Any expansions must meet strict climate and environment commitments, the UK government has said. The government in January expressed support for a third runway at London's Heathrow airport — the country's largest. UK transport minister Heidi Alexander said in February that she was "minded to approve" an expansion at London's Gatwick airport, ahead of a final decision in October. The expansion would involve Gatwick making its northern runway operational. It is currently only used as a back-up option. The government is also "contemplating decisions on airport expansion projects at London Luton… and on the reopening of Doncaster Sheffield," Perkins said. "It is possible — but very difficult — for the airport expansion programme to be consistent with environmental goals," Perkins said. "We look forward to exploring how the government believes this can be achieved." The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. Its carbon budgets — a cap on emissions over a certain period — are also legally binding. The government must this year set levels for the UK's seventh carbon budget , which will cover the period 2038-42. The committee has invited written submissions on the possible airport expansions and net zero, with a deadline of 24 April. It will report in the autumn. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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