IMO 2020 marine fuel switch intensifies

Market: Oil products
12/11/19

Demand for 0.5pc sulphur marine fuel oil is ramping up in most of the world's largest ports, and the grade could account for 65pc of all marine fuel oil bought globally this month.

In Singapore, the world's largest bunkering hub, more than 43pc of delivered marine fuel deals received by Argus so far in November have been for 0.5pc fuel oil, and 0.1pc sulphur marine gasoil (MGO) accounted for 21pc. Demand for these two grades has been rising because they will be compliant with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) 0.5pc sulphur cap, which is effective from 1 January. The remaining Singapore deals were for high-sulphur marine fuel oil (HSFO), which will not be compliant with the IMO rule.

In China's bunkering fulcrum of Zhoushan, 0.5pc fuel oil has made up 37pc of deals received by Argus in November; HSFO and MGO made up 31pc and 32pc, respectively.

Sales of 0.5pc fuel oil have increased sharply in the Middle East's main bunkering location of Fujairah, UAE, where it is available from seven suppliers. Shipowners have been topping up fuel tanks with 200-500t of HSFO rather than filling them, to avoid being left with non-compliant fuel next year.

Suppliers in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub in northwest Europe have received an increasing number of enquiries for 0.5pc fuel oil this month. There has not been a drop in the number of enquiries for HSFO, the typical volumes requested have fallen from 2,000-3,000t to around 400t. HSFO will still be used by ships fitted with exhaust cleaning systems known as scrubbers.

Spanish integrated Cepsa's launch of 0.5pc fuel oil supply in Gibraltar and Algeciras last week increased availability in the Mediterranean market. Cepsa said the ratio of HSFO to 0.5pc fuel oil is 80:20, and it expects 0.5pc to become the main fuel this month. It started offering the product in Barcelona this week. Two suppliers in Las Palmas said the HSFO-0.5pc demand split is 60:40. One said this will flip to 30:70 or 20:80 by the end of the month.

Uptake of 0.5pc has been slower in the eastern Mediterranean. A supplier in Malta gauged it to 20-25pc of total demand and forecast it to reach 70pc by mid-December. Suppliers in Piraeus, Greece, started to receive requests for 0.5pc fuel oil last week. Motor Oil Hellas (MOH) has adapted its 175,000 b/d Corinth refinery to supply more compliant fuel. Hellenic Petroleum, the other refiner supplying the port, will start offering the grade from late November. In Istanbul, 0.5pc fuel oil has accounted for around 20-25pc of sales in November, according to two suppliers. They expect it to reach 70pc by mid-December.

Sales of 0.5pc fuel oil increased in Russia's far east in October and November. Four suppliers have been selling the grade on a limited basis. Shipowners' typical requested amount of HSFO has fallen to 200-300t. Suppliers in Baltic Sea ports, such as St Petersburg, have received a small number of 0.5pc fuel oil requests, but expect an uptick later this month.

Demand for 0.5pc fuel oil has lagged in North America, partly because of high prices. In South America, Brazil has made the switch to 0.5pc and MGO; state-controlled Petrobras stopped offering HSFO on 1 October. It said it produces enough 0.5pc fuel oil to meet domestic demand and exports the surplus. Argentinian suppliers have stopped offering HSFO in favour of 0.5pc fuel oil, but the opposite is the case in Peru and Ecuador where 0.5pc fuel oil is not yet available.

Globally, some shipowners have started buying 0.5pc fuel oil or MGO now so they have compliant fuel in at least one of a ships' tanks by mid-December, giving enough time to expel high-sulphur residues before the turn of the year. One shipowner with global reach said it bought 75pc HSFO and 25pc 0.5pc fuel oil in October. It expects 0.5pc to account for 65pc in November, 90pc in December and 100pc by January.

By Erik Hoffman and Enes Tunagur

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21/04/25

IMO incentive to shape bio-bunker choices: Correction

Corrects B30 pricing in paragraph 5. New York, 21 April (Argus) — An International Maritime Organization (IMO) proposal for ship owners who exceed emissions reduction targets to earn surplus credits will play a key role in biofuel bunkering options going forward. The price of these credits will help determine whether B30 or B100 becomes the preferred bio-bunker fuel for vessels not powered by LNG or methanol. It will also influence whether biofuel adoption is accelerated or delayed beyond 2032. At the conclusion of its meeting earlier this month the IMO proposed a dual-incentive mechanism to curb marine GHG emissions starting in 2028. The system combines penalties for non-compliance with financial incentives for over-compliance, aiming to shift ship owner behavior through both "stick" and "carrot" measures. As the "carrot", ship owners whose emissions fall below the IMO's stricter compliance target will receive surplus credits, which can be traded on the open market. The "stick" will introduce a two-tier penalty system. If emissions fall between the base and direct GHG emissions tiers, vessel operators will pay a fixed penalty of $100/t CO2-equivalent. Ship owners whose emissions exceed the looser, tier 2, base target will incur a penalty of $380/t CO2e. Both tiers tighten annually through 2035. The overcompliance credits will be traded on the open market. It is unlikely that they will exceed the cost of the tier 2 penalty of $380/t CO2e. Argus modeled two surplus credit price scenarios — $70/t and $250/t CO2e — to assess their impact on bunker fuel economics. Assessments from 10-17 April showed Singapore very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) at $481/t, Singapore B30 at $740/t, and Chinese used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome), or B100, at $1,143/t (see charts). If the outright prices remain flat, in both scenarios, VLSFO would incur tier 1 and tier 2 penalties, raising its effective cost to around $563/t in 2028. B30 in both scenarios would receive credits putting its price at $653/t and $715/t respectively. In the high surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn roughly $580/t in credits, bringing its net cost to about $563/t, on par with VLSFO, and more competitive than B30. In the low surplus credit scenario, B100 would earn just $162/t in credits, lowering its cost to approximately $980/t, well above VLSFO. At these spot prices, and $250/t CO2e surplus credit, B100 would remain the cheapest fuel option through 2035. At $70/t CO2e surplus credit, B30 becomes cost-competitive with VLSFO only after 2032. Ultimately, the market value of IMO over-compliance credits will be a major factor in determining the timing and extent of global biofuel adoption in the marine sector. By Stefka Wechsler Scenario 1, $70/t surplus credit $/t Scenario 2, $250/t surplus credit $/t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

21/04/25

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21/04/25

Calif. refinery resupply rule vote postponed

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All rights reserved.

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IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

17/04/25

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17/04/25

IMF anticipates lower growth from US tariffs

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Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

17/04/25

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17/04/25

Risks rising for possible recession in Mexico: Analysts

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Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports

17/04/25

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17/04/25

Saudi petchem expansion plans to cap naphtha exports

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