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US rail crude loadings tumble as prices decline

  • Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Crude oil, Feedgrade minerals, Fertilizers, Metals, Oil products, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
  • 01/04/20

US railroad shipments of petroleum have dropped as crude and refined products prices fall to the lowest level in more than a decade.

US railroad loadings of petroleum and related products during the week ended on 28 March dropped by 11pc compared with the same week in 2019. A month earlier, during the week ended on 29 February, volume was up year on year by 13pc.

Despite last week's reductions, full-month loadings in March for petroleum and related products were up by 3.5pc compared with the same time in 2019. Until March, railcar shipments of petroleum and related products had consistently increased year on year.

Canadian volumes also have fallen since hitting all-time highs earlier in 2020. Railcar loadings during the week ended on 28 March were down by 3.7pc compared with a year earlier.

US benchmark crude prices fell to near $20/bl this week, the lowest since February 2002. US Gulf coast conventional gasoline prices last week dropped to the lowest level in more than 21 years. Negative profit margins for making gasoline have prompted Gulf coast refiners to cut runs by 20pc-30pc, approaching the 60pc-65pc minimum run rates.

That has affected tank car loadings of petroleum and related products, according to new data from the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

"The recent collapse in oil prices is hurting rail shipments of petroleum products, fractionation sand and steel products," AAR senior vice president John Gray said.

Automobile and parts shipments continued to drop sharply because manufacturing has been curtailed.

The number of railcars loaded in the US with automobiles and auto parts fell by 70pc last week, according to AAR data. The week before that, rail volume fell by 7.1pc. And the week before that, automotive loadings rose year on year by 6.6pc.

"Rail traffic numbers confirm that the coronavirus is taking a toll on the economy," Gray said.

Overall, US railroads loaded 449,767 carloads and intermodal units during the week ended 28 March, down by 12pc compared with the same period last year. A week prior, during the week ended on 21 March, volume was down by only 8.6pc.

"While there remain more unknowns than knowns about the next few months, there are tidbits of encouraging news," Gray said.

March was the best month for rail chemical carloads in two years. Grain railcars loaded in March were up compared to March 2019, the first time in a year that has occurred.

Coal loadings did increase last week by 0.1pc compared with the same week in 2019, but the comparison was skewed because shipments in spring 2019 were delayed by heaving flooding in the midcontinent.


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31/03/25

EU stainless safeguards, metal plan meet mixed reaction

EU stainless safeguards, metal plan meet mixed reaction

London, 31 March (Argus) — Europe's stainless steel industry has had a mixed reaction to the European Commission's safeguard steel review and its action plan to protect the bloc's metals industry, both announced on 11 March. Steelmakers have welcomed greater commitment from policy makers to support the sector, but are still concerned at a lack of concrete commitment to significant protectionist measures, while traders, service centres and scrap suppliers are worried the most radical proposals could severely damage their businesses. The European Commission's review of definitive safeguard measures on imports of certain steel products identified no new import pressure for stainless cold rolled sheets and strips, and left tariff rate quotas for the next 15 months virtually unchanged even as carryovers and unused quota access were removed. And the commission's European Steel and Metals Action Plan included proposals to curb imports of finished steel and exports of scrap alongside the extension of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to potentially include raw material exports and downstream products. European stainless steel flat producers — battling weak medium-term demand and a high cost structure — expressed disappointment on the absence of protectionism in the safeguard review through to July 2026, but told Argus they were encouraged by proposals in the Action Plan that acknowledge the need to to curb imports for domestic industry's long term health. "The industry remains threatened by global excess capacities and by global distortions from China and other countries that artificially support their domestic industries or circumvent the current measures," Finnish producer Outokumpu told Argus . "These challenges need to be mitigated with more assertive solutions, including replacing current safeguards with more effective measures from July 2026." European trading groups surveyed by Argus welcomed the stability offered by the unchanged import quotas as the industry navigates other pressures — such as high energy prices and US tariffs — but said they expect lobbying by producers to drive a wave of new measures in the fourth quarter of this year, with stainless steel-specific safeguards likely to be implemented from next year. "Current quotas will only last this year, if you ask me," a trader said. "We expect new regulation to be announced in September/October." A key area of focus for the industry is the possible introduction of the melt-and-pour clause, which determines the origin of goods by the location at which the metal is originally melted, and disregards third countries where further processing may take place for circumvention of anti-dumping duties. The EU stopped short of immediately implementing this clause as part of the Action Plan, and will conduct further assessment of the action. But market participants expect [consultation](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2670486] on the policy will start after the current safeguard period ends. Several large European stainless steel producers are heard to be importing slab from Asia, and traders told Argus they were relieved that melt and pour is not coming into play this year. A Spanish trader said the clause will level the playing field for European producers, but a hasty implementation this year would have simply added to costs for both producers and consumers in the near term. Outokumpu said it welcomes the melt-and-pour proposals as part of a wider anti-circumvention drive that it said is required in Europe. The EU's Action Plan also calls for the need to address carbon leakage of exported steel through a potential extension of the CBAM to include exports. Trading groups told Argus this will be difficult to implement across the spectrum of trading partners, and may render exports uncompetitive to the detriment of European service centre groups. Outokumpu called upon the need to leverage the EU's competitive advantage by including Scope 2 emissions within any CBAM regulation for downstream products. "It is critical to prevent European steel producers from being placed at a disadvantage from imports with higher emissions from energy usage," the group said. "Outokumpu uses low-carbon energy across its operations with a high-recycling rate, so a fair benchmark definition is necessary to ensure that our low-emission production receives the competitive advantage it deserves." The EU's action plan also proposes the potential introduction of export duties for all steel scrap in order to limit scrap leakage from the bloc. Stainless steel scrap traders surveyed by Argus said there was no chance such a move would ever be implemented as Europe simply cannot consume all the scrap it produces, and that recyclers use exports to keep prices at a level that encourages further investment. "We would drown in scrap if exports fell," a trader said. "Prices would decrease sharply and work like a subsidiary for an antique industry. High-end recycling plants need high prices to process complex materials which would end up in landfill otherwise. No investments would be made if prices are pushed into the ground." Trade bodies BIR and EuRIC suggested a more rational move could be to introduce mandatory recycled content targets for metals products that incentivises domestic demand and usage for scrap, while also allowing scrap to move freely to export markets. By Raghav Jain Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US consumer confidence down on policy angst


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil bets on plastics despite global uncertainties


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

Brazil bets on plastics despite global uncertainties

Sao Paulo, 28 March (Argus) — Brazil's plastics industry expects investments of R10.5bn/yr ($1.8bn/yr) for the next few years despite potential tariff threats that could upend trading relationships, plastic industry association Abiplast said. Factory expansions, advancements in sustainable packaging, new recycling technologies and enhancements in reverse logistics will fuel the investments, the association said at its Plasticos Brasil industry event. Despite the optimism, Latin American polymers markets are experiencing a period of uncertainty caused by global market disruptions resulting from tariff threats by US president Donald Trump and other factors. The threats of tariffs and retaliations has disturbed traditional plastic resin flows, resulting in lower prices throughout the region, with the effects most evident in the region's largest market, Brazil. A global polymer trader told Argus that polyethylene (PE) prices have reached record lows, with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) blow molding grades dropping close to $900/t during the week, compared with the $1,040–1,080/t range on 27 February. Other PE grades, as well as polypropylene (PP) prices, have followed a similar downward trend. On the other hand, offers of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) grades are limited, but the scarcity is not pushing these grades upward, according to the source. Instead of taking advantage of discounts, many buyers are postponing purchasing decisions in anticipation of further price drops, leading to fewer deals. Resin produced in the US and the Middle East is also being sold by Chinese traders at prices significantly lower than fresh offers from the original producers. These additional volumes, offered as re-exports, have depressed global prices, particularly in Latin America and especially in Brazil. As a result, some traders continue to lose market share in Brazil, they told Argus. This trend is part of a downturn in the petrochemical industry's cycle, which some traders said will persist for at least a couple more years. Despite these challenges, many market participants were emphatic that they closed many contracts and that they remain optimistic. Regional developments Brazilian chemical giant Braskem told Argus that Mexican joint venture Braskem Idesa's new ethane import terminal is scheduled to start up in May. With the move, the Mexican JV will serve all of its PE plant's feedstock needs with ethane imported from the US. It remains unclear if the Trump administration's threats about imposing fees on Chinese-made vessels when they dock in US ports could impede Braskem's strategy in the region. Braskem's first vessel, the Chinese-built 19,000t Brilliant Future , recently began transporting ethane to Braskem Idesa's complex from the US and a second vessel, with similar specifications and the same route, will be delivered in June. Brazil's Unipar Carbocloro new $35mn plant in Camacari, in northeastern Bahia state, is gradually ramping up its capacity utilization as operations start, with an official opening scheduled for early April. The plant is designed to produce 10,000 t/yr of chlorine, 12,000 t/yr of caustic soda, 25,000 t/yr of hydrochloric acid and 20,000 t/yr of sodium hypochlorite. Unipar could upgrade it for PVC production someday. Unipar also said that the gradual resumption of operations at its Bahia Blanca, Argentina, plant is progressing as planned. The plant went off line on 7 March because of torrential rains. By Fred Fernandes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025


28/03/25
News
28/03/25

India approves P and K subsidy for kharif 2025

London, 28 March (Argus) — The Indian government has approved the nutrient-based subsidy for phosphates and potash fertilizers for the kharif season, which runs from April until September. It has approved a total budget of 372.16bn rupees ($4.35bn) for the kharif season, which is 130bn rupees higher than the subsidy for rabi 2024-25 and around 128bn rupees higher than the allocation for kharif last year . The government said that the increased subsidy reflects the recent trends in international prices of fertilizers and inputs. The new rates are largely in line with the proposal made by the Inter-Ministerial Committee (IMC) in February, although the rate for DAP is slightly lower than the initial proposals as are the rates for the NPK grades, which moved according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The subsidy for MOP will remain at Rs2.38/kg, unchanged on the level for the rabi season as proposed in September. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for MOP of Rs1,428. The subsidy for phosphate will rise by 42pc from Rs30.80/kg for the rabi season to Rs43.60/kg. The subsidy for nitrogen will remain at Rs43.02/kg. This will give a per tonne subsidy rate for DAP of Rs27,799, a rise of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for rabi, slightly lower than the expected rise of around Rs6,000/t. The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t. At current market prices, DAP importers' margins will remain negative. The government will probably continue to compensate importers for losses on DAP, but there is no indication that Indian DAP producers will also receive compensation for losses. The rates for NPK grades have moved up according to the hike in the rate for P2O5. The new subsidies are as follows for the following key import grades when compared with the rates for rabi: 10-26-26 - Rs16,257/t, up by 26pc 20-20-0+13 – Rs17,663/t, up by 18pc 12-32-16 – Rs19,495/t, up by 27pc 15-15-15+9S – Rs13,585/t, up by 19pc A total of 28 fertilizer grades are included in the scheme. By Julia Campbell and Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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