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EU mulls tougher stance on foreign investments

  • Market: Crude oil, Electricity, Metals, Natural gas
  • 17/06/20

The European Parliament's largest political group today called for a "temporary ban" on Chinese takeovers of European companies. The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) group made the call as the European Commission unveiled plans to regulate acquisitions of EU companies by third-country firms if the latter have received subsidies.

The commission wants to ensure that foreign subsidies do not confer an "unfair" benefit on firms from third-country countries when acquiring EU companies, whether by directly linking a subsidy to a given acquisition or by indirectly increasing the financial strength of the acquirer.

It is seeking powers as a competent supervisory authority over foreign direct investment (FDI) so that it could propose legally binding commitments to a foreign acquirer to remedy competition distortion or prohibit a takeover. Transactions could not be finalised when under a commission review.

"As a last resort, if we could not agree on suitable commitments, we'd have the power to block a harmful merger altogether," EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said. She indicated that the measures should not look at subsidies for previous acquisitions, but at current third-country support for EU-based firms.

The commission did not today present legislative proposals, but indicated that it could do so in 2021. The proposals would require approval from EU member states and the European Parliament, following public consultation until 23 September 2020.

The commission's paper does not specifically mention China. But the EPP, criticising the commission's white paper on foreign takeovers as "not enough", today called for the EU to impose a "temporary ban" on Chinese takeovers of European companies made vulnerable by the Covid-19 pandemic.

"China will not be impressed by a discussion paper," EPP chair Manfred Weber said. "What we urgently need is legislative proposals to prevent outsiders from buying our strategic companies and know-how at a bargain price."

Other countries have recently moved to impose restrictions on foreign investment, with [Japan tightening control of its oil sector](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2087145) while Australia plans to tighten its foreign investment laws amid increased tensions with China. And the US is working on greater scrutiny of more than 150 Chinese publicly traded companies on US stock exchanges, including state-controlled Sinopec and PetroChina. The UK is also considering increased scrutiny of foreign investment.

The EU adopted a regulation in March 2019 establishing the first EU-level mechanism to co-ordinate existing foreign investment screening by member states, although it does not mandate that all EU countries have screening schemes.

Supply of critical inputs, such as energy or raw materials, is one of the criteria that the commission and member states will consider when determining whether an investment might affect security or public order.


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26/12/24

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

Japan’s crude steel output to recover in FY2025: IEEJ

Tokyo, 26 December (Argus) — Japan's crude steel output is expected to recover during April 2025-March 2026, given higher output in wider domestic industries, according to government affiliated think-tank the Institution of Energy Economy Japan (IEEJ). The country's crude steel output will increase by 4.1pc on the year to 86.5mn t in 2024-25, according to the IEEJ's projection on 24 December. This will mark the first year-on-year growth in four years. A recovery is mostly attributed to an uptrend in wider domestic industrial sectors including automobile, electric and industrial machinery, IEEJ said. It sees domestic car output increasing by 1.8pc to 8.9mn units from a year earlier. IEEJ did not provide further details, but it suggested that expanding investment for digital and green transformation will underpin the steel demand throughout the period. The think-tank also predicts that the country's steel product exports will increase by 1.2pc on the year following an upward trend in the global manufacturing sectors. Japan delivered around 32mn t of steel products overseas during 2023-24, according to the industry group the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF). The country's crude steel output has been sluggish throughout 2024, partly owing to weak demand from the construction and automobile sectors. Rising material costs and labour shortages have led to fewer construction projects in the country, weighing on steel demand. Operational suspensions at major auto manufacturers including Toyota and Daihatsu, following alleged false reporting on safety test results, also pressured steel demand. This partially led to the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in booked orders of ordinary steel for car use in October, according to JISF. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US tariffs may push more Canadian crude east


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs may push more Canadian crude east

Singapore, 26 December (Argus) — Canada may divert crude supplies from the US to Asia-Pacific via the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline in 2025, should president-elect Donald Trump impose tariffs on Canadian imports. Trump has declared that he will implement a 25pc tax on all imports originating from Canada after he is sworn into office on 20 January. This will effectively add around $16/bl to the cost of sending Canadian crude to the US, based on current prices, and impel US refiners to cut their purchases. The US imported 4.57mn b/d of Canadian crude in September, according to data from the EIA. Canadian crude producers are expected to turn to Asian refiners in their search for new export outlets. This is especially after Asian refiners gained easier access to such cargoes following the start-up of the 590,000 b/d TMX pipeline in May. The new route significantly shortens the journey to ship crude from Canada to Asia. It takes about 17 days for a voyage from Vancouver to China, compared with 54 days from the US Gulf coast to the same destination. China has become the main outlet for Asia-bound shipments from Vancouver, accounting for about 87pc of the 200,000 b/d exported over June-November, according to data from oil analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler (see chart). But even if the full capacity of the TMX pipeline is utilised to export crude to Asia from Vancouver, it will still only represent a fraction of current Canadian crude exports to the US. Vancouver sent just 154,000 b/d via the TMX pipeline to US west coast refiners over June-November, Vortexa and Kpler data show. Meanwhile, latest EIA figures show more than 2.63mn b/d of Canadian crude was piped into the US midcontinent in September, while US Gulf coast refiners imported 469,000 b/d. This means Canadian crude prices will likely come under downward pressure from higher costs for its key US market, should Trump's proposed tariffs come to pass. This will further incentivise additional buying from Chinese customers, as well as other refiners based elsewhere in Asia-Pacific. India, South Korea, Japan, and Brunei have already imported small volumes of Canadian TMX crude in 2024. A question of acidity But other Asian refiners have so far been reluctant to step up their heavy sour TMX crude imports because of concerns over the high acidity content. China has been mainly taking Access Western Blend (AWB), which has a total acid number (TAN) as high as 1.6mg KOH/g. Acid from high-TAN crude collects in the residue at the bottom of refinery distillation columns where it can corrode units, which deters many refineries from processing such grades. But Chinese refiners have been able to dilute the acidity level by blending their AWB cargoes with light sweet Russian ESPO Blend, allowing them to save costs compared to buying medium sour crude from the Mideast Gulf. Cold Lake, the other grade coming out of the TMX pipeline, has a lower TAN and is currently popular with refiners on the US west coast. But higher costs from potential tariffs could prompt Cold Lake exports to be redirected from the US to buyers in South Korea, Japan, and Brunei — which had all bought the grade previously. Canadian crude appears to have so far displaced medium sour grades in Asia-Pacific, and this trend is expected to continue should TMX crude flows to the region climb higher in 2025. More Canadian crude heading to Asia may displace and free up more Mideast Gulf medium sour supplies to buyers in other regions, including US refiners looking for replacements to their Canadian crude imports. This will also limit the flows of other arbitrage grades like US medium sour Mars crude to Asia-Pacific, which has already seen exports to Asia dwindle in 2024. Opec+ is also due to begin unwinding voluntary production cuts in April 2025, which means Canadian producers will likely have to lower prices sufficiently to attract buyers from further afield. By Fabian Ng TMX exports from Vancouver (b/d) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: California dairy fight spills into 2025

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — California must begin crafting dairy methane limits next year as pressure grows for regulators to change course. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) has committed to begin crafting regulations that could mandate the reduction of dairy methane as it locked in incentives for harvesting gas to fuel vehicles in the state. The combination has frustrated environmental groups and other opponents of a methane capture strategy they accuse of collateral damage. Now, tough new targets pitched to help balance the program's incentives could become the fall-out in a new lawsuit. State regulators have repeatedly said that the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is ill-suited to consider mostly off-road emissions from a sector that could pack up and move to another state to escape regulation. California's LCFS requires yearly reductions of transportation fuel carbon intensity. Higher-carbon fuels that exceed the annual limits incur deficits that suppliers must offset with credits generated from the distribution to the state of approved, lower-carbon alternatives. Regulators extended participation in the program to dairy methane in 2017. Dairies may register to use manure digesters to capture methane that suppliers may process into pipeline-quality natural gas. This gas may then be attributed to compressed natural gas vehicles in California, so long as participants can show a path for approved supplies between the dairy and the customer. California only issues credits for methane cuts beyond other existing requirements. Regulators began mandating methane reductions from landfills more than a decade ago and in 2016 set similar requirements for wastewater treatment plants. But while lawmakers set a goal for in-state dairies to reduce methane emissions by 40pc from 2030 levels, regulators could not even consider rulemakings mandating such reductions until 2024. CARB made no move to directly regulate those emissions at their first opportunity, as staff grappled with amendments to the agency's LCFS and cap-and-trade programs. That has meant that dairies continue to receive credit for all of the methane they capture, generating deep, carbon-reducing scores under the LCFS and outsized credit production relative to the fuel they replace. Dairy methane harvesting generated 16pc of all new credits generated in 2023, compared with biodiesel's 6pc. Dairy methane replaced just 38pc of the diesel equivalent gallons that biodiesel did over the same period. The incentive has exasperated environmental and community groups, who see LCFS credits as encouraging larger operations with more consequences for local air and water quality. Dairies warn that costly methane capture systems could not be affordable otherwise. Adding to the expense of operating in California would cause more operations to leave the state. California dairies make up about two thirds of suppliers registered under the program. Dairy supporters successfully delayed proposed legislative requirements in 2023. CARB staff in May 2024 declined a petition seeking a faster approach to dairy regulation . Staff committed to take up a rulemaking considering the best way to address dairy methane reduction in 2025. Before that, final revisions to the LCFS approved in November included guarantees for dairy methane crediting. Projects that break ground by the end of this decade would remain eligible for up to 30 years of LCFS credit generation, compared with just 10 years for projects after 2029. Limits on the scope of book-and-claim participation for out-of-state projects would wait until well into the next decade. Staff said it was necessary to ensure continued investment in methane reduction. The inclusion immediately frustrated critics of the renewable natural gas policy, including board member Diane Tarkvarian, who sought to have the changes struck and was one of two votes ultimately against the LCFS revisions. Environmental groups have now sued , invoking violations that effectively froze the LCFS for years of court review. Regulators and lawmakers working to transition the state to cleaner air and lower-emissions vehicles will have to tread carefully in 2025. By Elliott Blackburn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: US tariffs, new EAFs may alter scrap flows

Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — A wave of new electric arc furnace steel mills coming on line next year could transform scrap flows in North America, while looming US import tariffs could stunt cross-border trade. Six steel mills in the US and Canada, accounting for about 9.9mn short tons (st)/yr of electric arc furnace (EAF) production, are ramping up from late this year or scheduled to start up in 2025. The new EAFs, mostly along the Mississippi River and in Ontario, could be magnets for scrap and reshape flows across the southeast, Midwest and Canada, as scrap-fed EAF steelmakers continue to expand their role in North America, which was historically dominated by coal and iron ore-fed blast furnaces. Although some scrap dealers are optimistic about markets in the new year, market participants are carefully monitoring the effect president-elect Donald Trump's hawkish trade policies could have on scrap trading. Trump has pledged to impose 25pc tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico that could further shift North American scrap flows. Canada is the largest shipper of ferrous scrap into the US at an average of 3mn metric tonnes (t)/yr since 2021. Prime scrap imports between January and October this year averaged 47,000t/month, while shred imports averaged 70,000t/month, US customs data shows. The import tax would drive up the cost of Canadian scrap for US buyers and potentially reduce supply available to steel mills in the Midwest. Scrap traders noted that Trump can be unpredictable and may be using the threat of tariffs as leverage. "I'm pretty tepid on the first quarter," one Midwest dealer said. "People are trying to figure out how serious Trump is on tariffs." New EAFs to drive scrap demand The new scrap-fed EAFs in North America include Algoma Steel in Ontario, Hybar in Arkansas, and Nippon Steel's and ArcelorMittal's joint venture in Alabama. US Steel's Big River Steel began melting scrap at its second Arkansas EAF in October. EAF steelmaker Hybar plans to open its 630,000 st/yr reinforcing bar mill in northeast Arkansas in the summer of 2025. Hybar, along with Big River Steel and three Nucor mills already in the region, could further bolster the lower Mississippi River basin as a major scrap market. "I'm looking forward to next year because of the increased competition," a Midwestern scrap dealer said. "It's always good to have options." The new consumption could position northeast Arkansas and Tennessee as perhaps the top scrap consuming region, making it an industry barometer in 2025. Chicago has historically held that position and has been the benchmark region in contracts. Shifting flows in Canada Algoma Steel plans to begin ramping up two new EAFs in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, in March next year to continue making hot-rolled coil and steel plate. The EAFs could eventually bring that facility's maximum steel production levels to 3.7mn st/yr once they fully replace Algoma's blast furnaces. The steelmaker will likely focus on low-copper shred and prime scrap grades to keep up the iron content in its melt mix as it transitions to EAF steelmaking, one Canadian scrap consumer said. Algoma may also continue to rely on raw inputs like direct reduced iron and hot briquetted iron as it ramps up its scrap buying to feed the EAFs. Market participants in Canada expect the mill to buy scrap from the prairies west of Sault Ste Marie, as well as from the greater Toronto area to the mill's east, though Algoma will face competition to pull scrap from the latter region. Scrap dealers in the upper Midwest are also keen to supply Algoma Steel because buyers in that region are scarce. A Midwest dealer noted that Algoma may ship in scrap from US ports on the Great Lakes. Algoma did not respond to requests for comment on its raw material plans. In 2021, the company set up a joint venture with Triple M Metal, a Canadian scrap dealer with 45 yards, that will likely supply scrap for Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie. By James Marshall and Brad MacAulay US steel mill capacity additions Million short tons/yr Company Location Product type Capacity added Start date US Steel/Big River Steel Osceola, AR Sheet 3.00 RAMPING ArcelorMittal/Nippon Steel Calvert, AL Sheet 1.65 2H 2024 Algoma Steel Sault Ste. Marie, ON Sheet 3.70 1Q 2025 Nucor Lexington, NC Bar 0.43 1Q 2025 Hybar Osceola, AR Bar 0.63 2Q 2025 CMC Berkeley, WV Bar 0.50 4Q 2025 Total 9.91 Argus reporting & public statements Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year


24/12/24
News
24/12/24

Viewpoint: FeV demand may grow next year

London, 24 December (Argus) — Ferro-vanadium (FeV) demand, which is closely tied to the carbon steel sector, has the potential to grow next year after a sluggish 2024, but economic and geopolitical uncertainties make conditions difficult to forecast. The outlook suggests FeV consumption will increase, driven by global steel production growth, particularly in countries such as India, as well as a potential rebound in key markets such as the US and Europe. The World Steel Association (Worldsteel) sees 2025 demand rising by 1.2pc to 1.772bn t, after a slight contraction this year. Most of the major economies, including China, are likely to record lower steel demand this year, although India bucks the trend, with robust demand growth expected throughout 2025. In developed economies, steel demand could grow by 1.9pc next year, driven by a recovery in the EU and, to a lesser extent, in the US and Japan. Buyers in Europe have been wary about purchasing large volumes of FeV in recent weeks, with fewer volumes expected in next year's long-term contracts as steel plants are looking for more flexibility and are "afraid of buying material that in the end they might not need", a trading firm said. Construction The construction sector remains a crucial driver of FeV consumption, primarily because of its dependence on steel for infrastructure projects. But the construction industry's challenges, particularly residential construction in developed economies, have dampened overall steel demand. High borrowing costs have stifled housing activity, with interest rate hikes slowing building projects. "A meaningful recovery in residential construction (in the EU, US and South Korea) is expected to begin from 2025 onwards with the expected easing of financing conditions," Worldsteel said. Rebar production also has faced challenges, with Chinese steel mills reducing output on lower demand from the real-estate sector up to September, when new rebar standards were introduced by China's government. The new standards were intended to encourage higher vanadium content in steel, but the anticipated FeV demand boost has not yet materialised because overall appetite for the alloy remains suppressed by ongoing struggles in China's real-estate sector. China's rebar output fell by 1.9pc on the year to 17.7mn t in October , with January-October output showing a 14pc drop from the same period a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Without any lift from China, European FeV prices remain driven primarily by weakness in the continent's own construction sector, which continues to limit steel rebar trading volumes. Argus' weekly Italian domestic rebar assessment was at €550/t ex-works on 11 December, marking an 11pc drop from the start of this year. Automotive The automotive sector, particularly the electric vehicles (EV) market, will be a key driver of FeV demand next year. High-strength low-alloy (HSLA) steel — a type of carbon steel known for its superior strength-to-weight ratio — is crucial for light vehicles and EVs. While light vehicles and EV manufacturing has slowed this year, with factory closures and inventory reductions by major carmakers such as Volkswagen and Stellantis , the industry is expected to recover next year as the push towards sustainability continues. The green transition, which includes renewable energy projects and electric grid expansions, will further contribute to the demand for HSLA steel and, by extension, FeV. But EV growth is likely to slow in the short term under the administration of US president-elect Donald Trump, who could prioritise traditional energy sectors, potentially limiting support for renewables, industry participants said. By Roxana Lazar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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