Viewpoint: Asia fails to ramp up Paris pledges in 2020
Joe Biden took executive action to rejoin the global Paris climate agreement in one of his first moves as US president, signalling a term of renewed climate leadership from the world's second-largest greenhouse gas emitter.
A co-ordinated ramp-up in action is needed if the agreement's goal of limiting global temperatures' increase to between 1.5-2°C is to be met. Without additional policies, warming is set to surpass 3°C by the end of the century despite a 7pc emissions dip because of the Covid-19 pandemic this year, according to the UNEP's 2020 emissions gap report. But Asia-Pacific nations unanimously failed to strengthen emissions reduction targets by 2020, the agreement's first rolling five-year deadline.
Major emitters India and China neglected to update climate pledges by the end of 2020, while Japan, South Korea, Singapore, New Zealand, Vietnam and Australia did submit new targets on time but did not increase ambitions, according to climate policy analyst Carbon Brief.
Signatories to the 2015 Paris agreement approved a "ratchet mechanism" that requires they each update emissions targets and policies or nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years to steadily raise ambition over time, after governments formally acknowledged their collective commitments from 2015 would not meet the agreement's goal.
China
China, the world's largest emitter, has yet to formally register its new NDC with the UN despite accelerating climate commitments in recent months. Beijing pledged the country would reach peak emissions before 2030 and be carbon neutral by 2060 in September, shortly followed by a long-awaited nationwide emissions trading scheme that starts from February.
But China's unofficial revised 2030 target mentioned at December's UN climate action summit sets it up for overachievement, with ambiguous language contrasting with its bold, clear-cut decarbonisation pledge. At December's summit President Xi Jinping said China aims to cut GDP emissions intensity by "more than" 65pc by 2030 from 2005 levels, up from 60-65pc in its previous NDC. Ambition appears weak given the country has already slashed emissions intensity by over 50pc from the 2005 baseline and at a rate of 20-22pc during recent five-year periods. To achieve the new target, intensity will need to drop by 16pc for each five-year period over the next decade.
But the addition of "more than" is far from negligible and leaves room to scale up efforts. While a 65pc intensity reduction will still allow absolute emissions to rise by around 15pc over the next decade, a 69pc drop will halt emissions growth. China's ministry of ecology and environment is still engrossed in hashing out its climate change strategy and should clarify its plan to 2030 and beyond after the country's parliamentary 2021 two sessions in early March.
Japan, South Korea
Japan and South Korea were among 10 major emitters — contributing over 1pc of global greenhouse gases annually — that met the 2020 deadline, although both resubmitted NDCs unchanged from 2016.
Japan aims to lower emissions by 26pc below 2013 levels by 2030, while South Korea by the same year plans to bring emissions 37pc below business-as-usual (BAU) levels. Independent climate policy tracker Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rates these targets as "highly insufficient", meaning if all governments took a similar approach, warming will reach between 3-4°C by 2100. But both nations have said they will update NDCs in 2021. Ambition in these new targets will be seen as a litmus test of their commitment to decarbonise after they announced plans to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 late last year.
Australia
Australia also left its NDC flat from 2016 and deliberately downplayed rather than ramped up ambitions. Its new submission states the country is "on track to meet and beat [its] 2030 target" of reducing emissions by 26-28pc below a 2005 baseline.
But critics point out this target warranted revisiting in 2020 as it is not yet in line with the Paris agreement goals. The government has also faced criticism for making the target weaker in absolute emissions terms by adjusting historical emissions data between 2016 and 2020 submissions. It set the 2005 baseline at 598mn t of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2016 but later hiked this up to 611mn t CO2e on changed assumptions about land use emissions.
Unlike large northeast Asian economies, Australia has stressed that it will not revisit its target again before 2025.
Singapore
Singapore altered its 2030 NDC to an absolute emissions cap of 65mn t CO2e from its prior GDP intensity cut target of 36pc from 2005 levels. Absolute emissions targets guarantee reductions regardless of economic growth, but in this case ambitions remain similar despite the change in metric. Singapore is set to overachieve without any policy changes, with 2030 emissions already on course to peak up to 24pc below target at 48.3mn-49.7mn t CO2e in 2030.
New Zealand
New Zealand put forward an unchanged NDC rated as "insufficient" by CAT, though further edits are likely following advice from the country's independent climate change commission due in early 2021. The government has sought to position itself as a global leader in climate policy by enshrining its net-zero emissions by 2050 target into law in the 2019 Zero Carbon Act, although the exemption of methane that makes up 40pc of total emissions weakens this commitment.
Vietnam
Vietnam submitted a slightly improved NDC in 2020 but is still set to vastly outperform its new target, which uses an inaccurate emissions baseline inflated far above its real BAU trajectory. Annual emissions are heading for 448mn-496mn t CO2e by 2030, 40-50pc beneath its NDC target in absolute emissions terms but still consistent with 2-3°C warming.
But the country's revised environmental protection law passed in November 2020 may pave the way for stronger climate policy and deeper emissions cuts. Under the law, which takes effect from 1 January 2022, the government seeks to become the first developing nation to establish carbon pricing, although details have not yet been specified.
India
Though India has not indicated it will update its initial NDC, it is one of the few nations assessed by CAT with a 2030 target in line with 1.5-2°C warming as targeted by the Paris agreement. It is also on track to overperform, as emissions intensity should drop to 37-39pc below 2005 levels by 2030, largely spurred by strong investments in solar and wind power.
But India must plan for a full phase-out of coal by 2040 to remain Paris-compliant beyond the next decade. The agreement requires that signatories peak emissions in the first half of the century and reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
| Asia-Pacific emissions, NDCs | (mn t CO2e) | |||||||
| Latest historical GHG emissions excl forestry | Global emissions share % | Projected 2030 emissions current post-Covid policy | 2016 initial NDC to 2030 | 2020 updated NDC to 2030 | Latest NDC in absolute emissions by 2030 | Latest NDC warming equivalent | <2C compatible absolute emissions by 2030 | |
| Japan | 1,238 (2018) | 2.6 | 905-1,036 | 26% emissions cut below 2013 | Unchanged; updates expected 2021 | 1,079.0 | 3-4°C | <327 |
| South Korea | 714 (2017) | 1.3 | 665-743 | 37% emissions cut below BAU | Unchanged; updates expected 2021 | 539 | 3-4°C | <316 |
| Australia | 557 (2017) | 1.1 | 487-506 | 26-28% emissions cut below 2005 | Unchanged | 445-467 | 3-4°C | <386 |
| New Zealand | 79.6 (2017) | 0.1 | 65-72.1 | 30% emissions cut below 2005 | Unchanged | 67.5 | 2-3°C | <58 |
| Singapore | 49.3 (2014) | 0.1 | 48.3-49.7 | 36% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 | Peak emissions at 65mn t CO2e | 65 | 3-4°C | <5.9 |
| Vietnam | 325 (2014) | 0.6 | 448-496 | 8% emissions cut below BAU; 25% with international assistance | 9% emissions cut below BAU; 27% with international assistance | 903; 748 with assistance | >4°C | <375 |
| China | 13,442 (2018) | 24.3 | 12,922-14,666 | 60-65% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 | >65% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 * not official | 13,744-15,194 | 3-4°C | <10,715 |
| India | 2,993 (2018) | 6.9 | 3,837-4,066 | 33-35% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005 | No update expected | 5,350-5,682 | 1.5-2°C | <6,463 |
| Malaysia | 158 (2016) | 0.6 | Unassessed | 35% cut in emissions intensity of GDP from 2005; 45% with international assistance | No update expected | Unassessed | Unassessed | Unassessed |
| Indonesia | 856 (2016) | 4.7 | 1,073-1,326 | 29% emissions cut below BAU; 41% with international assistance | No update expected | 1,817 | 3-4°C | <1,127 |
| Source: CAT, World Resources Institute | ||||||||
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