Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Run cuts loom as European refiners grapple with Omicron

  • Market: Oil products
  • 01/12/21

European refiners have been plunged back into a challenging economic environment following a downturn in refinery margins, with crude run cuts widely touted as markets assess the potential impacts of the new Omicron strain of the Covid-19 virus.

Transport fuel margins plummeted in the second half of November amid growing concerns of another winter marred by Covid-19 restrictions. European 321 crack spreads — which compare three parts crude with two parts gasoline and one part diesel, used as a proxy for overall refining margins in Europe — hit their lowest since March on 23 November at $6.12/bl, and closed the month at just $6.95/bl after starting November at $15.53/bl. Margins have nosedived even despite a crash in crude prices over the same period — North Sea Dated lost 16pc over the course of the month to end November at $70.98/bl, its lowest since August.

The recent collapse in refining margins is likely to lead to widespread crude run cuts at European refineries according to traders, with some estimating cuts as high as 10pc. Some traders also remarked on lower fuel supplies on offer in the region — a sign of reduced production. In addition to weaker crack spreads, refiners may also be mulling production cuts to adjust for weaker demand if lockdowns do return across the continent this winter. Austria became the first European country to reimpose a full national lockdown on 22 November, and since then the fuel demand outlook has suffered a fresh blow with the discovery of the Omicron strain, which sparked one of the sharpest price drops in the history of crude futures trading on 26 November.

Northwest European gasoline shed just over $200/t in outright terms — and $11/bl against Dated crude — during November, ending at $635/t. During that time the market structure in the paper market flattened rapidly from a $45/t premium of front-month Eurobob oxy swaps over second-month contracts — known as backwardation — a month ago to less than $5/t yesterday. The gasoline market has moved rapidly from a market characterised by tight prompt supply at the beginning of the month, to concerns that runs will be trimmed to compensate for falling demand.

Middle-distillates margins have also fallen, albeit less sharply than gasoline. Diesel margins to Dated retreated to around $10/bl by the end of November, from as high as $14/bl during the month. Backwardation on the gasoil forward curve has seen independent diesel storage volumes at ARA hit their lowest since before the pandemic, although backwardation is now flattening and free tank space could provide one outlet for traders if demand is curtailed by lockdown measures.

Jet fuel crack spreads ended the month at $9.19/bl over Dated — dipping as low as $6.72/bl on 26 November, a three-month low — from over a $12/bl average in October. The news of a new variant of the virus, and consequently the potential for wholesale travel bans, would turn October's recovery on its head as passenger confidence wanes and demand for air travel falls off again. That will probably push refiners to divert jet fuel into the diesel pool, as was commonplace earlier in the pandemic, which could help to curb supply and provide a floor to spot prices. Imports from east of Suez remain relatively high though — around 1mn t of jet fuel is expected to hit Europe in December, just below November levels.

But refiners could find some solace in other products. Prices of key gasoline blending component naphtha fell by less than those of gasoline, supported by the likelihood of continued firm demand for the product from the European petrochemical sector. Northwest European naphtha refining margins to Dated rose to four-week highs of $2.42/bl on 30 November.

And fuel oil margins to crude also diverged from other transport fuels, as the prospect of lower output because of refinery run cuts buoyed margins, in tandem with steady marine fuel demand. Very-low sulphur fuel oil premiums to front-month Ice Brent hit a five-week high of $6.27/bl yesterday, while high-sulphur fuel oil discounts to Ice Brent reached a five-week high of $13.69/bl.

Cutting crude unit runs was paired with higher throughputs of secondary feedstocks in cracking units earlier in the pandemic, as it gave refiners the flexibility to produce enough fuel to meet downstream contracts while reducing exposure to an overall weak margin landscape, as well as helping to minimise jet fuel production. Fresh run cuts could provide some support to vacuum gasoil (VGO) demand — used as a feedstock for cracking units — at a time of seasonal weakness. VGO demand typically dwindles as the end of the calendar year approaches because of an annual trend to run down inventories in the US in particular, but also in Europe.

But unlike earlier in the pandemic, operating costs for hydrocracking units in particular have ballooned since the natural gas price spike, which coupled with low gasoil margins could disincentivise refiners from raising runs in those units. Hydrogen was costing refiners around $5-6/bl of crude processed in October according to the IEA, up from just around 60¢/bl in 2019. It is unclear how refiners will navigate this issue, although it could provide a ceiling to high-sulphur VGO demand.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products


04/04/25
News
04/04/25

UK considers import tariffs on US oil products

London, 4 April (Argus) — The UK government has included refined oil products from the US in a list of goods that could be subject to retaliatory tariffs. The government said it was considering "potential tariff measures on US goods, should this be deemed necessary" in response to a 10pc US import tariff on UK goods and services — excluding energy — due to take effect on 5 April. The consultation will last until 1 May. Light oils, gasoils, jet fuel, fuel oils, lubricants and bitumen all feature in the list of products possibly subject to retaliatory tariffs. The UK could be particularly exposed to any tariff impact on US middle distillate imports in the event of retaliation. The UK sourced over a quarter of its 14.37mn t of 10ppm diesel and gasoil from the US last year, according to Vortexa, while 3pc of its 10.15mn t of jet and kerosine imports were sourced from the US. It is not clear what tariff rate the UK is targeting in its potential retaliation. For other oil products, any potential import tariff impact would become more muted as US refined product imports become less significant. The UK received just 6pc of its 1.92mn t total fuel oil imports from the US last year, while the UK was the fourth largest gasoline supplier to the US and received none of the product from its trade partner. European refined product values have collapsed as a result of the escalating trade war which saw China retaliate today against the US' latest tariff action. Eurobob non-oxy gasoline barge prices dropped by 4pc to $700.75/t on 3 April at a time when trading activity typically picks up ahead of the US summer driving season. Indicated non-oxy barge values were set to drop further in the trading session today. The EU is similarly preparing countermeasures against US import tariffs, which Washington set at 20pc from 9 April in addition to existing rates. Ice gasoil futures had dropped by 10pc since President Trump announced the new tariff regime on 2 April to $615.75/t by the close today. Ice gasoil futures are used as the pricing basis against which diesel, gasoil and jet fuel grades are assessed in the European middle distillates markets. European refined products market participants have pointed to a darker global economic outlook triggered by the US import tariffs as the driving force behind the drop-off in European product values. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

South Africa Natref to end bitumen production from Sep


04/04/25
News
04/04/25

South Africa Natref to end bitumen production from Sep

London, 4 April (Argus) — Bitumen production at Natref's 107,000 b/d Sasolburg refinery in South Africa will cease from September, ending all the country's output of the heavy oil product. Several South African bitumen market participants, including buyers from the refinery and suppliers of imported bitumen into the domestic and regional southern African markets, said officials from majority Natref shareholder Sasol had been informing customers of the planned move over the past week. Customers were told that final bitumen supply from stocks held at the refinery would be supplied to them into October, with all supplies ending thereafter. Market participants said the Natref plan is linked to a wider move of switching to sweeter crudes aimed at maximising output of light and middle distillates, which would also hit output of heavy products other than bitumen, notably high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO). Officials at Sasol, which owns 63.3pc of Natref alongside UK energy firm Prax with 36.4pc, have so far not responded to Argus' requests for comment. South African market participant said the move had been under consideration for some time, even before Prax agreed to buy TotalEnergies' Natref stake in December 2023. South Africa turned from a major net exporter of bitumen, mainly to its southern African neighbours, to becoming increasingly dependent on imports after several of the country's refineries were either shut down or ended their bitumen production since 2020. South African cargo imports in bitumen tankers surged to nearly 200,000t in 2024, according to Vortexa data, mostly into Durban and some into Cape Town. Mediterranean supplies, mainly from Greece and Turkey, made up just over half of these, with Rubis and Continental supplying most. Mideast Gulf storage points, along with Bahraini state-owned Bapco's refinery and export terminal at Sitra, supplied around a third, while emerging exporter Pakistan shipped 8pc. According to a South African bitumen supplier, the Natref refinery's bitumen production fell last year to 45,000-50,000t — from an Argus estimate of 140,000t in 2023 — because of numerous plant halts and interruptions. The market effect of Natref ending its bitumen output will therefore be limited, with another leading South African participant saying truck flows from the inland refinery had become increasingly unreliable. The halt will nevertheless trigger more South African import requirements that are anyway likely to rise sharply in the coming years because of much-enhanced government infrastructure budgets. The Natref refinery was forced to stop all production for about two months following a fire in early January this year. French construction and bitumen supply firm Colas recently became the latest company to take a South African import asset position, agreeing a long-term deal with local firm FFS Refiners to operate four of five new bitumen tanks at an existing Durban facility once an FFS expansion there is completed, likely in the second half of this year. By Keyvan Hedvat and Fenella Rhodes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more