US oil, gas demand to climb through 2050: EIA

Market: Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
03/03/22

Oil and natural gas will remain the dominant sources of energy in the US through 2050, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said today in its latest long-term outlook.

US petroleum consumption will grow by 0.5pc/yr to 22.3mn b/d by 2050, according to the baseline scenario in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook. Domestic gas consumption is set to increase by 0.4pc/yr over that same period to 93 Bcf/d (2.6bn m3/d), during which US net exports of natural gas through LNG and pipeline will grow by 2.5pc/yr to 23 Bcf/d by 2050.

Oil and gas are set to retain their positions as the largest two energy sources in the US over the next three decades, even with renewable power increasing by nearly 150pc by 2050, the outlook said.

"We do not see liquid fuels and natural gas losing their place as the top two sources of energy in the US to 2050," EIA deputy administrator Stephen Nalley said. "That appears to be true under a pretty wide variety of assumptions about economic growth, technology and energy development costs and prices."

US gasoline demand is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels of 9.3mn b/d reached in 2019, and instead will range from 8.7-9.1mn b/d through 2050 as rising fuel-economy and electric vehicle growth offsets a 0.9pc/yr increase in driving by cars and trucks, the outlook said. The electric vehicle stock will reach 13pc of light-duty vehicles by 2050, up from 3pc last year, EIA said.

EIA prepared the long-term outlook before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, meaning it does not factor in the potential effects from long-term changes in oil and gas prices stemming from the invasion and resulting sanctions. The outlook expects global crude benchmark Brent will climb from $70/bl this year to $90/bl by 2050, well below today's $110.46/bl settlement price for the May contract.

In the electricity sector, the US is expected to derive nearly 40pc of its power from wind, solar and hydroelectric by 2050, up from 23pc today. Coal's power generating market share will decline to 11pc by 2050, down from 23pc today, according to the baseline scenario.

By Chris Knight

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

31/03/25

EU commission's CO2 tweak for cars imminent: Update

Updates with likely date for approval Brussels, 31 March (Argus) — The European commission could approve a legal proposal for a limited revision of the bloc's 2019 regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs) on 1 April, an official said. A draft proposal circulating does not change the substance of the 2019 rules but specifies a three-year compliance period (2025-2027) used to calculate potential excess emissions premiums. And the 29-page legal proposal does not alter the bloc's 2030 emissions reduction target to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions by 55pc, compared to 1990. Nor does it lower the overall CO2 emission standards, the commission said. If agreed by the European Parliament and EU member states, the "one-off" three-year compliance period over 2025-2027, instead of an annual assessment, would provide additional flexibility for vehicles manufacturers, while maintaining investor certainty and predictability, the commission added. The 2019 regulation requires annual EU fleet-wide average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans to be reduced in five-year intervals. For each year in 2025–2029, a target reduction of 15pc, compared with 2021 values, would normally be applied. Without any legal change approved by parliament and EU states, manufacturers exceeding their specific emissions targets, would have to pay excess emission premiums of €95 per g/km for each new vehicle registered. The commission is also "accelerating" work on a review that will commence "in good time this year", said the commission's energy and climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But she had "nothing new" on whether compliant fuels could be expanded beyond e-fuels to include other low-carbon and zero-carbon, such as biofuels. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon

31/03/25

News

31/03/25

EU commission expects CO2 tweak for cars soon

Brussels, 31 March (Argus) — The European commission expects to "very soon" release a legal proposal for a limited revision of the bloc's 2019 regulation setting CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). A draft proposal circulating does not change the substance of the 2019 rules but specifies a three-year compliance period (2025-2027) used to calculate potential excess emissions premiums. And the 29-page legal proposal does not alter the bloc's 2030 emissions reduction target to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions by 55pc, compared to 1990. Nor does it lower the overall CO2 emission standards, the commission said. If agreed by the European Parliament and EU member states, the "one-off" three-year compliance period over 2025-2027, instead of an annual assessment, would provide additional flexibility for vehicles manufacturers, while maintaining investor certainty and predictability, the commission added. The 2019 regulation requires annual EU fleet-wide average CO2 emissions from new cars and new vans to be reduced in five-year intervals. For each year in 2025–2029, a target reduction of 15pc, compared with 2021 values, would normally be applied. Without any legal change approved by parliament and EU states, manufacturers exceeding their specific emissions targets, would have to pay excess emission premiums of €95 per g/km for each new vehicle registered. The commission is also "accelerating" work on a review that will commence "in good time this year", said the commission's energy and climate spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen. But she had "nothing new" on whether compliant fuels could be expanded beyond e-fuels to include other low-carbon and zero-carbon, such as biofuels. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

World Bank loans Peru $500mn for climate adaptation

31/03/25

News

31/03/25

World Bank loans Peru $500mn for climate adaptation

Lima, 31 March (Argus) — The World Bank loaned Peru $500mn to fund public climate adaptation programs, including investments for developing its burgeoning renewable energy sector, distributed generation and electric mobility. This new funding, requested by Peru's government and approved by the World Bank, aims to build on reforms to strengthen Peru's climate resilience and adaptation. Peru is considered among the countries most vulnerable to disasters driven by climate change, including earthquakes, flash floods, landslides and glacier melting. The loan will go toward funding energy transitions in key sectors like electricity and transportation, as well as developing sustainable cities and clean technologies, the World Bank said. It is also expected to strengthen disaster risk management through a national coalition of government agencies tasked with prevention and mitigation of disasters, including climate-related ones. These initiatives could include implementing a geo-referenced information system that helps in early mitigation and decision-making. Peru has had a sluggish transition in its renewables sector, but last year wind power production grew by 66pc and solar by 32pc over the year prior. In January, overall renewable power production grew by 16pc over the same month last year, with hydroelectricity leading most of that growth. Peru's electricity grid is mostly powered by natural gas — about 51pc thermoelectricity, 38pc hydropower, 7pc wind and 3pc solar electricity. Peru's congress passed a new electricity law in January, easing the path for renewable energy companies to compete for public electricity contracts and potentially reduce costs. Though the law has not yet been implemented, it faced stiff opposition from Peru's oil and gas industry which argued it gave unfair favoritism to renewable companies. By Bianca Padró Ocasio Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

28/03/25

News

28/03/25

Global energy mix evolves as electricity demand surges

Climate change is becoming a bigger factor behind electrification, but cleaner energy use is slowing the growth in global emissions, writes Georgia Gratton London, 28 March (Argus) — A substantial increase in electricity demand — boosted by extreme weather — drove an overall rise in global energy demand in 2024, lifting it well above the average pace of increase in recent years, OECD energy watchdog the IEA announced this week. This led to a rise in natural gas consumption, although renewables and nuclear shouldered the majority of the increase in demand, leaving oil's share of total energy demand below 30pc for the first time. Global energy demand rose by 2.2pc in 2024 compared with 2023 — higher than the average demand increase of 1.3pc/yr between 2013 and 2023 — according to the Paris-based agency's Global Energy Review . Global electricity consumption increased faster, by 4.3pc, driven by record-high temperatures — that led to increased cooling needs — as well as growing industrial consumption, the electrification of transport and the rapid growth of power-hungry data centres needed to support the boom in artificial intelligence, the IEA says. Renewables and nuclear covered the majority of growth in electricity demand, at 80pc, while supply of gas-fired power generation "also increased steadily", the IEA says. New renewable power installations reached about 700GW in 2024 — a new high. Solar power led the pack, rising by about 550GW last year. The power generation and overall energy mix is changing, as economies shift towards electrification. The rate of increase in coal demand slowed to 1.1pc in 2024, around half the pace seen in 2023. Coal remained the single biggest source of power generation in 2024, at 35pc, but renewable power sources and nuclear together made up 41pc of total generation last year, IEA data show. Nuclear power use is expected to hit its highest ever this year, the agency says. And "growth in global oil demand slowed markedly in 2024", the IEA says, rising by 0.8pc compared with 1.9pc in 2023. A rise in electric vehicle (EV) purchases was a key contributor to the drop in oil demand for road transport, and this offset "a significant proportion" of the rise in oil consumption for aviation and petrochemicals, the IEA says. Blowing hot and coal Much of the growth in coal consumption last year was down to "intense heatwaves" — particularly in China and India, the IEA found. These "contributed more than 90pc of the total annual increase in coal consumption globally", for cooling needs. The IEA repeatedly noted the significant effect that extreme weather in 2024 had on energy systems and demand patterns. Last year was the hottest ever recorded, beating the previous record set in 2023, and for CO2 emissions, "weather effects" made up about half of the 2024 increase, the watchdog found. "Weather effects contributed about 15pc of the overall increase in global energy demand," according to the IEA. Global cooling degree days were 6pc higher on the year in 2024, and 20pc higher than the 2000-20 average. But the "continued rapid adoption of clean energy technologies" restricted the rise in energy-related CO2 emissions, which fell to 0.8pc in 2024 from 1.2pc in 2023, the IEA says. Energy-related CO2 emissions — including flaring — still hit a record high of 37.8bn t in 2024, but the rise in emissions was lower than global GDP growth. Key "clean energy technologies" — solar, wind and nuclear power, EVs and heat pumps — collectively now prevent about 2.6bn t/yr CO2 of emissions, the IEA says. But there remains an emissions divide between advanced and developing economies. "The majority of emissions growth in 2024 came from emerging and developing economies other than China," the agency says, while advanced economies such as the UK and EU cut emissions last year and continue to push ahead with decarbonisation. Global energy suppy by fuel EJ Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 648 634 622 2.2 1.8 Renewables 97 92 89 5.8 3.1 Nuclear 31 30 29 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 149 145 144 2.7 0.7 Oil 193 192 188 0.8 1.9 Coal 177 175 172 1.2 2.0 Global power generation by fuel TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 Total 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 Renewables 9,992 9,074 8,643 10.0 5.0 Nuclear 2,844 2,743 2,684 3.7 2.2 Natural gas 6,793 6,622 6,526 2.6 1.5 Oil 738 762 801 -3.2 -4.8 Coal 10,736 10,645 10,452 0.9 1.8 Global power generation by country TWh Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 31,153 29,897 29,153 4.2 2.6 US 4,556 4,419 4,473 3.1 -1.2 EU 2,769 2,718 2,792 1.9 -2.6 China 10,205 9,564 8,947 6.7 6.9 India 2,059 1,958 1,814 5.2 7.9 Global CO2 emissions by country mn t Growth ±% 2024 2023 2022 24/23 23/22 World 37,566 37,270 36,819 0.8 1.2 US 4,546 4,567 4,717 -0.5 -3.2 EU 2,401 2,455 2,683 -2.2 -8.5 China 12,603 12,552 12,013 0.4 4.5 India 2,987 2,836 2,691 5.3 5.4 *includes industrial process emissions — IEA Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

28/03/25

News

28/03/25

US consumer confidence down on policy angst

Houston, 28 March (Argus) — The University of Michigan's gauge of consumer sentiment fell in March to the lowest level since November 2022, led by a slump in expectations over the "potential for pain" from US economic policies introduced by the new administration. Sentiment fell to 57, down from 64.7 in February and 79.4 in March 2024, according to the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey released Friday. The final reading for March was lower than the preliminary reading. The sentiment index fell to a record low of 50 in June 2022 on inflation concerns. The index of consumer expectations fell to 52.6, the lowest since July 2022, from 64 in February and 77.4 in March last year. The expectations index has lost more than 30pc since November last year. "Consumers continue to worry about the potential for pain amid ongoing economic policy developments," the survey director Joanne Hsu said. The decline "reflects a clear consensus across all demographic and political affiliations: Republicans joined independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations … for their personal finances, business conditions, unemployment and inflation," Hsu said. Current economic conditions slipped to 63.8 in March from 65.7 in February and 82.5 last March. Two thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 5pc this month, the highest reading since November 2022, from 4.3pc last month. The University of Michigan survey comes three days after The Conference Board's preliminary Consumer Expectations Index fell in March to its lowest in 12 years, to below a threshold that "usually signals" a recession. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more