IRA spurs Japanese, South Korean battery investment

Market: Battery materials
10/05/23

The US' Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has stirred up the insecurities that economies have about their critical minerals industries, spurring greater electric vehicle (EV) battery investments in northeast Asia this year.

The battery race began in 2022 but intensified this year, with the IRA producing a greater response from governments and the global lithium, battery and EV industries. They now risk being left in the lurch as the US tries everything in its power to create a more independent and secure supply chain.

The past two months has seen UK's lithium industry respond, Europe's battery industry expressing concern, South Korea acting swiftly to support its EV and battery industry and Japanese politically-influential auto manufacturer Toyota taking the lead to advance the country's EV and battery industry.

Expanded tax credits under the IRA, designed to grow domestic production of clean energy vehicles and the lithium-ion battery supply chain, have, to a certain extent, resulted in expanded South Korean and Japanese investments.

There is now seeing increased developments across the entire critical minerals supply chain, partly because of the impact of the IRA and its ripple effects.

South Korean battery manufacturer LG Energy Solutions is aligning its supply chains to try making batteries that qualify for the IRA's subsidies. It has partnered up with Chinese lithium producer Yahua to produce lithium hydroxide in Morocco, which is a signatory to free trade agreements with the US and EU. It is also raising its investment in its Arizona's manufacturing complex to $5.5bn, planning a $4.1bn joint venture lithium-ion battery factory in Canada's Ontario with European auto producer Stellantis. It is also working with US auto manufacturer General Motors (GM) to operate three joint-venture manufacturing plants in Ohio, Tennessee and Michigan for GM's Ultium battery.

South Korean battery material firms SK On and Ecopro Materials' joint venture with Chinese battery firm Green Eco-Manufacture is also building a 50,000 t/yr battery precursor plant in South Korea to meet the IRA's market entrance requirements.

South Korea's government in general reacted positively to the revised IRA rules published on 31 March, according to a Congressional Research Service report published in April.

But Japan is standing firm on building out domestic capacity and seeking to regain market power. This is despite the critical minerals agreement signed between Japan and the US in March, essentially addressing Japan's concerns on the critical mineral content requirements of the IRA.

The unveiling of Toyota's new EV plan on 7 April denotes that the government will have no choice but to gear up domestic battery production to facilitate the private sector.

"Toyota means politics in this country," a battery material trader told Argus.

Uncertainty, tensions linger

But sluggish GDP growth in South Korea and Japan, coupled with high borrowing costs with expectations of persistently high interest rates, may limit firms' appetite to further invest.

GDP growth in Asia is to be dominated by China and India in 2023, according to the IMF's regional economic outlook for Asia and Pacific, which expects the two countries to contribute around half of global growth this year.

The relatively unstable global investment climate because of rising trade fragmentation risks may also be an obstacle to Japanese and South Korean firms' long-term domestic and foreign investment commitments. The two countries, which share production links with the US and China, may suffer negative spillover in their exports to the US and China if US-China trade barriers in the form of tariffs intensify, according to an economic update by the World Bank in April.

The intensifying side effects of friendshoring, or manufacturing and sourcing from countries that are geopolitical allies, and a greater divergence from globalisation of supply chains have become much more noticeable. This is creating tensions between economies given the looming insecurities.

Outside of Asia the policy has created political-economic challenges between the US and EU. It may even "create a wedge between EU member states that can subsidise and those that lack fiscal resources and cannot", according to a working paper by Washington-based think tank the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

By Joseph Ho

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15/05/25

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV) and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over 950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies , with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report. South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise. Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers' market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from 20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing 50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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14/05/25

IDB to finance R1.4bn for Sao Paulo's EV fleet

Sao Paulo, 14 May (Argus) — The Interamerican Development Bank (IDB) will provide R1.4bn ($250mn) in financing for Brazil's Sao Paulo city to further expand its electric vehicle (EV) bus fleet. Sao Paulo has 527 electric buses and forecasts more 2,200 clean fuel buses by 2028, the government said. The city has a total fleet of 12,000 buses. In April, the Bank of China approved $100mn for Sao Paulo to buy more electric buses. But the city did not disclose how many buses it would buy. Sao Paulo also received R2.55bn from Brazil's development bank Bndes to buy 1,387 electric buses in December. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nissan cancels LFP battery plant, cuts 15pc of jobs

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Nissan cancels LFP battery plant, cuts 15pc of jobs

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Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

London, 14 May (Argus) — The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) under a quota system appears almost inevitable, market participants said ahead of the Cobalt Institute's annual conference in Singapore this week. With cobalt prices rising and stocks tightening globally, market participants increasingly expect that the DRC's blanket cobalt export ban — implemented in late February — will transition into a more sustainable quota system. The current freeze has pushed up global cobalt prices, but also blocked the flow of royalties to the Congolese treasury, creating what several traders described as a politically deliberate but ultimately transitional phase. "This is not [Congolese trading and mining firm] Gecamines — it's Kinshasa, it's the ministry of mines, and ultimately it's the presidency," one trader said, emphasising the centralised nature of the decision-making this time around. The government's key grievance is financial, multiple sources agreed. Cobalt royalty revenues have collapsed in recent years, according to several market participants. "They've lost billions," said one source with direct links to the ministry of mines. "This only makes sense if they replace the ban with something dynamic that keeps prices up and restarts the royalty flow." Prices up, revenues frozen Prices for cobalt hydroxide have nearly doubled since February, from $6/lb cif China to close to $12/lb — a sharper jump than during than any previous bans on DRC exports, including the ban on Chinese producer CMOC's Tenke Fungerume mine in 2022, now the largest cobalt mine in the world ( see graph ). But with exports halted, the Congolese government has reaped none of the upside. "They got the prices up, sure — but right now, there's nothing coming in. No exports mean no royalties," one trader noted, "A quota is the only real way forward." Market participants expect any such quota regime to be modelled loosely on Opec, with the DRC restricting supplies in a co-ordinated way to support pricing. "The officials running this are oil and gas guys," one source who has met with the DRC delegation said. "They want Opec on steroids. They've said that outright." Others draw comparisons with Indonesia, which already operates a quota system for its nickel ore mining permits and mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP), which contains cobalt. "Indonesian quotas are real, but they're built into nickel flows. It's not exactly apples to apples," a trader said. "So for Indonesia to reduce cobalt output, they'd have to reduce nickel output, which they don't want to do." Stockpiles thinning, squeeze ahead Record-high first-quarter cobalt hydroxide production by CMOC and global trafing and mining firm Glencore — at 30,000t and 9,500t, respectively — suggests a healthier supply picture than is really the case. "Production hasn't stopped, but that's the point — if exports don't resume, stocks will just build up inside the DRC or dry up abroad," a trader said. Some estimates place global cobalt hydroxide inventories at 50,000–70,000t, but availability depends heavily on who holds what. "20,000t with a larger producer is not the same as 20,000t with a small recycler," one trader said. "Some are more inclined to sit on it and wait for prices to jump." Multiple participants expect a squeeze to emerge in the international market by August, as final pre-ban shipments are consumed and no new material enters the pipeline. "One producer told people there'd be no more shipments after May/June," one source with direct knowledge of trading flows said. "That means by July, China is chewing through remaining stocks — and by August, you're in crunch territory." Some traders are already stockpiling, with exporters deliberately delaying cargoes to benefit from rising prices, market participants said. Strong enforcement The DRC's export restrictions are being heavily enforced. A customs brigade with military backing was deployed recently to Kasumbalesa on the DRC-Zambia border — the country's only significant cobalt export route — to prevent smuggling and enforce the ban. "People writing about illegal smuggling clearly haven't been to Katanga. There's one road. One crossing. It's tightly controlled," a trader told Argus . The new level of sophistication, some argue, is why a transition to quotas feels inevitable. "Extending the ban helps no one in the long term — not the DRC, not Chinese refiners, not the market," an industry consultant said. "A quota system is the only option that gives them both price and payment." Market sentiment remained mixed ahead of next week's conference, with cobalt spot trading thin, ranging from $15-16/lb in-warehouse Rotterdam for Chinese material, $17-18/lb for western standard grade and $19-20/lb for alloy grade. Whether the announcement comes in Singapore or in the weeks that follow, few now doubt the final outcome. "This [export ban] isn't a one-off," one participant said. "It's the start of a new model. The days of Congo flooding the market and watching others profit are over." By Chris Welch Cobalt prices post-DRC supply shocks pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

14/05/25

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14/05/25

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — Indonesian cobalt production capacity from its high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations will more than double to 114,000t in 2027 from 55,000t in 2024, National Economic Council member and executive secretary Septian Hario Seto has said. But there will probably not be significant capacity expansion beyond 2027, Seto told the Cobalt Congress 2025 conference on 14 May in Singapore. Xu Aidong, cobalt branch chief expert and adviser at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, agreed that capacity will probably stick given slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth and rising costs for HPAL projects that include increasing sulphur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines. Seto expects cobalt prices to trend up further if the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban continues but warned that the measure could backfire as it could prompt technology adaptation to lower the cobalt content in batteries. "I think we [saw] in 2017 and 2018 [that the battery sector] responded with massive adoption of the [nickel-cobalt-manganese] NCM 811, so you are compromising long-term demand of cobalt with this one," Seto said. Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production in Indonesia is still able to generate 30-40pc profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000/t, Seto added, attributing that partly to the cobalt content. The country exported almost 1.56mn t of MHP last year, with cobalt exports up to around 44,350t. Indonesia previously separated the MHP before further processing into nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate. "But nowadays, we directly ship the MHP and there is one factory in Indonesia that can process further the MHP going into the precursor without doing the crystallisation of the nickel sulphate," Seto said. "As long as we are increasing the MHP production in Indonesia, it's not possible to [be asked] to control this cobalt," Seto said, adding that the country does not see cobalt as an "independent mineral" but one closely intertwined with nickel. Indonesia's position on nickel is very similar to the DRC's position on cobalt, said Seto, where the biggest producer has to be "careful" and "responsible" in ensuring sufficient supply in the market or risk being treated as "not reliable". A DRC decision on whether to extend the export ban or impose a strict limitation of exports "in part" has yet to be made . The country's mineral markets regulator Arecoms said during the conference that it will communicate its decision as planned at the end of the cobalt export suspension period, at odds with Chinese market participants' expectations for the conference. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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