Climate ambition stagnated in past year: UN

Market: Emissions
14/11/23

Countries' pledges to tackle climate change remain far short of what is needed to limit global warming to target levels, a UN report published today found.

A total of 20 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the Paris climate agreement have been updated since the cut off date for last year's report on 23 September 2022, according to today's UN NDC synthesis report.

The report estimates total global GHG emissions, excluding land use, land use change and forestry, would stand at 53.2bn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2025 if all current NDCs are implemented. That is 55.2pc higher than in 1990, 12.2pc higher than 2010, and 1pc higher than in 2019. And emissions are estimated to stand at 51.6bn t CO2e in 2030, which is 50.5pc above 1990 levels, 8.8pc above 2010 levels and 2pc lower than 2019 levels.

This represents a "slight increase" in ambition compared with last year's report, under which total GHG emissions were estimated to reach 53.4bn t CO2e in 2025 and 52.4bn t CO2e in 2030.

Under current NDCs, emissions would also be 3.1pc lower than the 2025 estimate in 2030, "indicating the possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030", the report says, implying "an even stronger possibility of global emissions peaking before 2030 than estimated in the previous version of this report".

But for peaking to occur, conditional elements of NDCs need to be implemented, the report stresses, referring to parts of the plans for which financial resources and support are provided.

Full implementation of current NDCs would cut GHG emissions by an estimated 5.3pc by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. But if conditional elements are excluded, emissions would stand 1.4pc above 1990 levels by the end of this decade.

The report warns there is a "sizeable" gap between the emissions levels predicted and those required under the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's pathways to meet the Paris deal's target to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C.

The report "provides yet more evidence that the world remains massively off track to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoiding the worst of climate catastrophe", UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said today.

"Inch-by-inch progress will not do. It is time for a climate ambition supernova in every country, city, and sector," he said, adding Cop 28 "must be the place to urgently close the climate ambition gap".

By Victoria Hatherick

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29/04/25

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29/04/25

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