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Red Sea war risk premiums soar

  • Market: Agriculture, Coal, Coking coal, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 20/12/23

War risk insurance premiums for vessels travelling via the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden have jumped this week after a spate of attacks on commercial vessels from Houthi controlled territories in Yemen.

Houthi rebels have attacked vessels suspected of being linked to Israel as they transit through the Red Sea. These attacks prompted the London market's Joint War Committee to extend the territory constituting the Red Sea war risk on 18 December to account for missile range. The revised territory allowed underwriters to adjust insurance terms, driving up premiums to around 0.5-0.7pc of hull value from around 0.1pc in early December, according to market participants.

Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and Gulf of Aden are ongoing. The US Central Command said a one-way attack drone and an anti-ship ballistic missile were launched against the Swan Atlantic from Yemen on 18 December. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported multiple suspicious incidents on 19 December.

Several vessels have rerouted from travelling via the Suez Canal which leads into the Red Sea, with some very large gas carriers choosing to voyage around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the threat. Some firms and owners have placed a blanket ban on vessels voyaging through the area. This has pushed up freight costs either on war premiums or longer voyages.

Targeted vessels are supposedly Israeli-linked or involved in the Saudi-led alliance with the Yemeni government, but vessels targeted in recent attacks had no clear affiliation with them, according to a coalition of maritime organisations including the International Chamber of Shipping and Bimco.

The first attack took place on 19 November when Houthi rebels seized the Galaxy Leader with its last known location near the Port of Salif, Yemen, according to vessel tracking data. The UKMTO has since reported around 40 threatening or suspicious events in the region.

In response, international maritime coalition Operation Prosperity Guardian has been launched by the US, the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, the Seychelles and Spain to ensure security in the region and a return to stable trade. The UK Royal Navy recently assigned the HMS Diamond, equipped with the Sea Viper anti-air missile system, to the international naval force to assist with air defence.


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12/03/25

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US: Update

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US: Update

Adds aluminum, steel trade data. Calgary, 12 March (Argus) — Canada is levying new counter-tariffs worth nearly C$30bn ($20.9bn) on the US in response to Washington's 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. As of 12:01am on 13 March, 25pc reciprocal tariffs on an additional C$29.8bn of imports from the US will be put into place, Canada's finance minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday. This includes C$12.6bn on steel products, C$3bn on aluminum products, and C$14.2bn on additional imported US goods. The list of additional goods includes computers, sports equipment, cast iron products, among others. US president Donald Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Canada, Mexico and all foreign countries, effective Wednesday. LeBlanc said the government learned the US' tariffs would also be imposed on steel and aluminum content in "certain derivative products", which Canada is assessing and may impose further counter tariffs. Resource-rich Canada supplies the US with about 70pc of its aluminum imports and about 23pc of its steel imports. The US imported 3.9mn metric tonnes (t) of unwrought alloyed and primary aluminum in 2024, with 2.7mn t of that coming from Canada, according to Global Trade Tracker. For comparison, the US produced 670,000t domestically in 2024, data from the US Geological Survey shows. The US imported about 25mn t of steel — including flat, long, pipe and tube — in 2024, with Canada supplying the most of any country at 6mn t, according to the US Department of Commerce. Brazil was the US' next largest foreign source at 4.1mn t while the EU and Mexico came in at 3.5mn t and 3.1mn t, respectively. Canada's minister of innovation, science and industry, François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, and Ontario premier Doug Ford will meet with US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on 13 March to discuss an update to the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. "The conversation tomorrow will be around lowering the temperature and focusing on the process that President Trump setup," said LeBlanc. Canada's position is that Trump should respect the USMCA agreement that he signed, LeBlanc said. The European Union is meanwhile preparing to retaliate against Trump's tariffs. The region will impose countermeasures of €26bn ($28bn), introduced in two stages starting on 1 April and then be fully in place on 13 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on X today. "I've been telling my European colleagues that Canada is the canary in the coalmine," Canadian foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly said on Wednesday. "If the US can do this to us, their closest friend and ally, then nobody is safe." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Brazil's Marquise Ambiental invests in 6 RNG plants


12/03/25
News
12/03/25

Brazil's Marquise Ambiental invests in 6 RNG plants

Sao Paulo, 12 March (Argus) — Brazilian landfill company Marquise Ambiental will invest R400mn ($68mn) in six biogas plants with an estimated total output of around 40.8mn m³/yr. The six plants will be in southeastern Sao Paulo state, northeastern Ceara and Rio Grande do Norte states, and northern Rondonia and Amazonas states, the company said. The Amazonas state plant, in the capital Manaus, is set to produce up to 18mn m³/yr of biogas and should prevent 300,000 metric tonnes (t) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from being released into the atmosphere. The Sao Paulo plant is forecast to produce 4.6mn m³/yr, while the Ceara plant is set to produce 2.8mn m³/yr. Meanwhile, the Rio Grande do Norte state plants, Braseco and Potiguar, are forecast to have output of 9mn m³/yr and 4mn m³/yr, respectively. The Rondonia plant is set to have an output of 2.1mn m³/yr, according to the company. The investment will happen in the next three years, but the company did not disclose when operations at each plant will begin. Marquise Ambiental has one 36.5mn m³/yr plant operating in Ceara , dubbed GNR Fortaleza. It is a joint venture between the firm and gas company Ecometano. By Maria Frazatto Planned Marquise biogas plants m³/yr Name State Capacity Osasco Sao Paulo 4,687,000 Braseco Rio Grande do Norte 9,007,000 Potiguar Rio Grande do Norte 4,097,000 Aquiraz Ceara 2,853,000 Manaus Amazonas 18,092,000 Porto Velho Rondonia 2,160,000 Total 40,896,000 Marquise Ambiental Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US


12/03/25
News
12/03/25

Canada levies new C$30bn counter-tariffs on US

Calgary, 12 March (Argus) — Canada is levying new counter-tariffs worth nearly C$30bn ($20.9bn) on the US in response to Washington's 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports. As of 12:01am on 13 March, 25pc reciprocal tariffs on an additional C$29.8bn of imports from the US will be put into place, Canada's finance minister Dominic LeBlanc said Wednesday. This includes C$12.6bn on steel products, C$3bn on aluminum products, and C$14.2bn on additional imported US goods. The list of additional goods includes computers, sports equipment, cast iron products, among others. US president Donald Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on steel and aluminum imports on Canada, Mexico and all foreign countries, effective Wednesday. LeBlanc said the government learned the US' tariffs would also be imposed on steel and aluminum content in "certain derivative products", which Canada is assessing and may impose further counter tariffs. Canada's minister of innovation, science and industry, François-Philippe Champagne, LeBlanc, and Ontario premier Doug Ford will meet with US secretary of commerce Howard Lutnick in Washington on 13 March to discuss an update to the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. "The conversation tomorrow will be around lowering the temperature and focusing on the process that President Trump setup," said LeBlanc. Canada's position is that Trump should respect the USMCA agreement that he signed, LeBlanc said. The European Union is meanwhile preparing to retaliate against Trump's tariffs. The region will impose countermeasures of €26bn ($28bn), introduced in two stages starting on 1 April and then be fully in place on 13 April, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on X today. "I've been telling my European colleagues that Canada is the canary in the coalmine," Canadian foreign affairs minister Melanie Joly said on Wednesday. "If the US can do this to us, their closest friend and ally, then nobody is safe." By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Low gas storage bookings may drive German stockdraw


12/03/25
News
12/03/25

Low gas storage bookings may drive German stockdraw

London, 12 March (Argus) — Low gas storage bookings for gas year 2025-26 may already be driving withdrawals and may continue to do so in the coming months. German stocks were at about 79.8TWh on Tuesday morning, filling 31.8pc of capacity. That was well below the 131TWh three-year average for this date and the 171TWh in storage a year earlier. Stronger withdrawals this winter were at least partly driven by higher heating demand as well as slower European imports of LNG and Russian pipeline gas compared with a year earlier. But market dynamics for upcoming storage years may also be encouraging withdrawals. A backwardated forward curve, with prompt prices holding substantially higher than contracts in winter 2025-26 and further along the curve, has incentivised the stockdraw over maintaining stocks. That said, prices for the summer quarters have risen above the prompt recently, so some firms could have a slight incentive to keep gas in storage past the end of this storage year. But the inverted THE summer-winter spread has disincentivised capacity bookings for the upcoming storage year. Summer prices holding above winter prices removes the commercial incentive to inject or book storage space profitably. And storage operators have struggled to sell space in recent months, with many auctions closing unsuccessfully as bidders cannot profitably hedge injections for the contract period. In the prevailing environment, only about 55pc of all German storage space has been booked for the 2025-26 storage year, leaving at least 103.5TWh of capacity unallocated, data show ( see data and download ). By contrast, firms had booked 99.7pc of German capacity for the 2024-25 storage year. Storage sites with low or no bookings might be driving withdrawals, as firms near the end of some storage contracts. At sites where some capacity is booked for the next storage year, firms could sell their stocks to other capacity holders if there is no financial incentive for withdrawing it. But at the six sites with no 2025-26 bookings yet — Rehden, Wolfersberg, Harsefeld, Frankenthal, the VNG-operated Jemgum caverns and SEFE's Speicherzone Nord — firms cannot sell gas in-store as there are no available buyers to transfer gas-in-store to, incentivising firms to empty stocks ahead of the summer 2025 filling season. Consequently, sites with no booked capacity for the upcoming storage year currently are filled less than most other German sites ( see graph ). The remaining sites suggests a correlation between 2025-26 bookings and stocks, as sites with a lower proportion of capacity booked for the next storage year tend to be less full, following stronger withdrawals this winter ( see withdrawals trajectory graph ). Stock dilemma Before the 2024-25 storage year ends on 31 March, any capacity holder left with stocks must decide either to withdraw that gas or sell it to a company holding 2025-26 capacity, if there is sufficient storage space booked at the individual site. Barring additional capacity sales, that suggests that about 7TWh may need to be withdrawn on contractual grounds alone, not accounting for weather or withdrawals from fully-booked sites. About 5.6TWh of that is stored at Rehden, Germany's largest storage site, whose operator SEFE Storage allows capacity holders to withdraw 10pc of their stocks up to two months after the storage year ends . Rehden was filled to 12.1pc of capacity on Tuesday morning, leaving about 1TWh to be withdrawn even if all capacity holders utilise that 10pc allowance. Four of the six sites with no 2025-26 bookings are depleted fields or aquifers, which have lower withdrawal and injection rates than salt caverns and offer capacity holders less flexibility to react to unusual price spreads. Caverns often offer faster injection and withdrawal speeds, so could still be used economically in summer by, for example, reacting to price volatility rather than seasonal spreads. Faster cycling also allows cavern capacity holders to wait longer before starting pre-winter injections, potentially allowing them to wait until the summer-winter spread normalises before injecting. Slower-cycling sites such as aquifers and depleted fields are usually drawn down more consistently in winter as their slower injections and withdrawals reduce their flexibility. That said, some operators might need to inject into caverns to maintain their structural integrity. This might stop withdrawals or possibly support a minimum of injections ahead of or early in the filling season. German storage operator Uniper Energy Storage bought some gas to store as de-facto cushion gas at its Etzel EGL and Etzel ESE sites last week to comply with German law. Restrictions on minimum pressure are enforced by mining authorities and can differ by site, storage operators have told Argus . By Lucas Waelbroeck Boix and Till Stehr Storage bookings next year vs current fill level % Fill level trajectories grouped by site type % Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US headline inflation eases in February


12/03/25
News
12/03/25

US headline inflation eases in February

Houston, 12 March (Argus) — US inflation fell in February for the first time in four months, an unexpected improvement amid mounting uncertainty over the new US administration's tariff, immigration and spending policies. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual rate of 2.8pc in February, down from 3pc in January, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by Trading Economics had forecast a 2.9pc rate. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose at a 3.1pc annual rate, down from 3.3pc the prior month and the lowest since April 2021. The deceleration in inflation comes as the Federal Reserve has signaled it is in no hurry to change its policy stance as it weighs the impacts of President Donald Trump's tariffs and other policies, which most economists warn will spur inflation. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates unchanged at its policy meeting next week after pausing in January following three rate cuts in the final months of 2024. The energy index fell by an annual 0.2pc in February from 1pc growth in January. Gasoline fell by 3.1pc. Piped gas rose by 6pc. Food rose by an annual 2.6pc, accelerating from 2.5pc. Eggs surged by an annual 59pc, as avian flu has slashed supply. Shelter rose by 4.2pc, accounting for nearly half of the overall monthly gain in CPI, slowing from 4.4pc in January. Services less energy services rose by 4.1pc, slowing from 4.3pc in January. New vehicles fell by 0.3pc for a second month. Transportation services rose by an annual 6pc, slowing from 8pc in January. Car insurance was up by an annual 11.1pc and airline fares fell by 0.7pc. CPI slowed to a monthly 0.2pc gain in February from 0.5pc in January, which was the most since August 202 3. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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