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IEA: Renewable growth by 2030 to fall short of tripling

  • Market: Electricity, Hydrogen
  • 09/10/24

Paris-based energy watchdog the IEA expects renewable additions to grow by 2.7 times by 2030, according to its 2024 report. This would surpass most individual countries' targets, but fall short of the target set at last year's Cop 28 gathering of tripling growth.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) additions are forecast to drive this growth, making up 80pc of new power plants by 2030. China is expected to be responsible for 60pc of this growth, the IEA said. With 670GW of new renewable capacity added so far in 2024 — a 20pc increase on the year — the IEA expects half of global energy generation to come from renewables by 2030. The EU is expected to double the pace of renewable capacity growth between 2024 and 2030.

While the IEA sees renewable growth being driven increasingly by the market rather than government policies, executive director Fatih Birol deems slow grid connection the biggest hurdle facing expansion. The average wait for a connection permit is seven years for wind and five for solar.

And lead author of the report, Heymi Bahar, added that PV manufacturers have been limiting expansion investment in response to a supply glut, with forecast manufacturing capacity for 2030 revised down from last year's report because of the financial risk facing smaller producers and negative net margins. The report also highlights the need for more investment in wind turbine manufacturing.

Despite estimates that electricity generated from renewables will almost double by 2030, the IEA sees renewable fuels — bioenergy, biogas, hydrogen and e-fuels — expanding by just 28pc by 2030, and making up less than 6pc of the energy mix. Europe is also expected see a 6pc increase in renewable fuel demand between 2023 and 2030. Geothermal, tidal and concentrated solar power growth is expected to decline because of a lack of policy support, while hydro is expected to account for less than 1pc of global renewable additions by 2030.


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01/11/24

Mexican hydrogen regulatory efforts gain ground

Mexican hydrogen regulatory efforts gain ground

Mexico City, 1 November (Argus) — The Mexican hydrogen association (AMH2) has made significant strides in recent discussions with regulators and officials, unveiling a comprehensive roadmap for industrial hydrogen adoption. The group's report estimates there will be demand for about 392,189 tonnes (t) of hydrogen per year across seven major industries during Mexico's pilot hydrogen development phase. This includes sector-specific hydrogen demands of 148,350 t/yr from oil refining through 10 potential applications; 107,325 t/yr for mining; 55,877 t/yr for hydrogen blending in natural gas; 23,932 t/yr in the metals industry; 35,040 t/yr tied to ammonia production; 15,265 t/yr for public transport; and 6,400 t/yr for methanol production. AMH2's strategy urges the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum to designate a lead ministry for hydrogen development, prioritize green hydrogen production and introduce incentives for project financing, technology development and energy transition initiatives. Additionally, it calls for regulatory adaptations to facilitate hydrogen's integration into Mexico's natural gas infrastructure, including quality, transportation, distribution and safety standards, especially for industrial equipment. Legal reforms to support hydrogen development will also be needed, according to the report, targeting laws governing mining, water, hydrocarbons, nuclear energy, energy transition, environmental protection, electric power, bioenergy and geothermal power. For green hydrogen — generated with renewable energy — the focus would be on the latter five areas. These efforts align with Mexico's long-term energy plan (Prodesen 2023-2037), which envisions converting 12 combined cycle power plants, totaling 1.024GW, to operate on a 70pc natural gas and 30pc hydrogen blend between 2033 and 2036. AMH2 president Israel Hurtado said although Mexico's pipeline infrastructure could handle up to a 15pc green hydrogen blend, achieving a 30pc blend would require further technological advances expected over the next decade. Prodesen also identifies regions for hydrogen injection into pipeline networks, including Sonora, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Baja California and the Yucatan peninsula. Yet new regulations will be crucial to establish a robust framework for hydrogen blending in existing infrastructure. The Sheinbaum's administration has committed to reducing carbon emissions and promoting clean energy, Hurtado said, with a $13.5bn investment pledge in renewables over six years and a target for 45pc of national power from renewables by 2030. AMH2 has built early connections with Sheinbaum's team, including Jorge Islas, her energy and climate advisor during the campaign, who now heads the energy ministry's (Sener) energy transition unit and supports green hydrogen initiatives. AMH2 leaders also recently met with energy regulator (CRE) president Leopoldo Melchi and commissioner Walter Jimenez, who expressed strong interest in hydrogen regulation. The association and CRE agreed to form a technical workgroup to develop clean hydrogen regulations collaboratively. Looking ahead, AMH2 plans to meet with energy minister Luz Elena Gonzalez and Mexico's economy ministry to further discuss the hydrogen strategy. But CRE's workgroup is on hold pending potential legislative reforms that could reorganize Mexico's energy regulators under Sener's supervision. Projects in development AMH2 has identified 16 hydrogen projects in Mexico, with eight in various development stages and eight announced. Primarily focused on green hydrogen, these projects represent an estimated $19bn investment. The largest, Helax, is a $10bn green hydrogen production facility in Oaxaca, connected to the Interoceanic Trans-Isthmus Corridor. AMH2 anticipates production to start within two years following initial permitting. The roadmap suggests that, even if only six projects are operational by 2030, the sector could generate 3.351GW and attract $1.8bn in investments. These projects are projected to bring in $2.5bn in revenue over six years and yield $1.9bn in tax contributions. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Latin America mulls nuclear power revival


01/11/24
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01/11/24

Latin America mulls nuclear power revival

New York, 1 November (Argus) — Nuclear power is gaining traction in Latin America as countries see small modular reactors (SMRs) as options for remote regions that are not connected to power grids. "The advent of SMRs are behind Latin America's new interest in nuclear energy, because they do not need to be large and do not require large investments," said Modesto Montoya, a nuclear physicist and former president of the Peruvian Institute for Nuclear Energy. Nuclear power is not a prevalent source of electricity in Latin America, producing around 2pc of the region's power consumption. There are seven nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 5.07GW in operation in the region, located in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil. Argentina has a 32MW SMR plant under construction. But the role of nuclear could increase in the region. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are providing technical advice to countries that are considering including the technology in their power systems. Earlier this month, El Salvador approved a nuclear energy law and signed a memorandum with the Argentinian government for scientific and technology cooperation for nuclear power. Daniel Alvarez, director of the Agency for Implementation of the Nuclear Energy Program in El Salvador, told Argus that the country was "following the book to develop nuclear power. We want to convert El Salvador into a nuclear country." The country needs to replace fossil fuels as half of the country's power capacity is fueled by bunker fuel. It has 204MW of geothermal capacity installed and, while solar energy is possible, the country's size limits the amount of physical space to add large solar plants. The government's plan is to have a research reactor and 400 people trained to manage a nuclear plant within seven years. The next step would be the construction of SMR. "We have to include alternatives for power generation and SMRs are a very good option. We want to include them in our transition to 2050,"Alvarez said. SMRs are also seen as a solution to the energy problem in the northern jungle city of Iquitos, in Peru, energy and mines minister Romulo Mucho said. It is one of the world's largest cities that is not accessible by road and not connected to the national grid, relying primarily on fuel oil for power generation. Peru has had experience with nuclear technology since 1988, when it opened the nuclear research facility, RASCO. Neighboring Bolivia has been working on a small nuclear program since the previous decade with Russia's Rosatom. It has a center for nuclear medicine and is finishing a small research reactor. Ronald Veizaga, deputy minister of electricity and renewable energies, said Bolivia began the program to improve medical treatment for cancer, but has changed gears. "Critics claim SMRs are expensive, but it is more expensive to have blackouts affecting your population and industry," he said. Traditional nuclear Paraguay is considering a more ambitious path, looking at a traditional nuclear plant. "We need to make political decisions if we want to explore a SMR or a large-scale plant to generate 1GW or more," said Jorge Molina, executive secretary of Paraguay's Radiology and Nuclear Authority. Paraguay could work with Argentina and Brazil to create a regional platform. "Our idea is part of regional integration. Our neighbors are already helping us develop our regulations," he said. But the construction of nuclear plants comes with challenges including high costs, time, labor and materials. Brazil began work on the 1.4GW Angra 3 nuclear plant in 1984 but works have been halted and resumed several times since then. The plant is roughly 67pc complete and has been in limbo since 2015. The country's Bndes development bank recently concluded that abandoning the construction of the project would be less costly than completing it. By Lucien Chauvin Countries with installed nuclear capacity in Latin America GW Country Capacity Argentina 1.64 Brazil 1.88 Mexico 1.55 — Ons, Cammesa, Cenace Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Japan's Hibikinada biomass unit to trial runs in Jan


01/11/24
News
01/11/24

Japan's Hibikinada biomass unit to trial runs in Jan

Tokyo, 1 November (Argus) — Japan's 112MW Hibikinada biomass plant, which is being converted from coal and biomass co-firing to biomass-only combustion, will trial run in January 2025. The plant in southern Japan's Fukuoka prefecture, which is held by housing and energy company Daiwa House Industry, will conduct test runs to examine if exhaust gas coming from biomass-only operations can meet environmental regulations and verify that the modified boiler can be stably operated. The construction for conversion started in April and nitrogen injection systems for preventing fires have already been installed. Daiwa will resume conversion works in mid-2025 after evaluating results from the first test runs, and complete it by April 2026. It aims to start biomass-only combustion operations around April 2026 to generate 980 GWh/yr of electricity. Of this, 30pc will be sold under Japan's feed in tariff (FiT) scheme while the company is considering other ways to sell the remaining 70pc, including long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and electricity capacity auctions. The plant started operations as a coal and biomass co-firing power plant in February 2019, burning 70pc of coal and 30pc of imported wood pellets. Daiwa bought the operating company in January 2023 and announced it will convert the project to biomass-only combustion in April 2023, then halted operations in April 2024 for conversion. It will burn up to around 450,000 t/yr of wood pellets after converting to biomass-only combustion. Daiwa is aiming to develop more than 2,500MW of renewable energy capacity around 2030, including solar, wind, hydro, and biomass-fired power generation. By Takeshi Maeda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Q&A: EU-GCC eye alliance anchored in energy, security


31/10/24
News
31/10/24

Q&A: EU-GCC eye alliance anchored in energy, security

Dubai, 31 October (Argus) — Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the start of the war in Gaza last year hastened the strengthening of relations between the EU and the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) ꟷ something both blocs had long been striving for. Argus sat down with the EU's special representative for the Gulf region and former Italian foreign minister Luigi di Maio at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh this week to discuss his hopes for the future of the relationship. You spoke at the conference about a comprehensive EU-GCC trade agreement. Such a thing has been on the table for a while without really moving forward. Could the first ever EU-GCC summit two weeks ago in Brussels provide the push needed for it to happen? The final statement of the summit clearly emphasised the importance of finalising the negotiation in a positive way, and reaching the free trade agreement at a regional level as soon as possible. Then we can start tailor-made negotiations on trade and investments. This can work in complementarity with the free trade agreement, for instance, on investments and energy co-operation bilaterally. This doesn't mean we are going to kill the free trade agreement at the regional level, but there are some sectorial co-operations that we can implement. This is a very good starting point. I would say the summit was ‘the message' because although our co-operation agreement dates back to the late 1980s, it was the first ever summit. Of course, that also testifies to the gap that we have to fill. This is why the EU approved the new strategy and why there is a special representative to implement this strategy. And why we are working with the Gulf countries to negotiate and implement [it] as soon as possible. Riyadh is where we opened the first ever European Chamber of Commerce in the GCC. The EU and Saudi Arabia are going to sign an energy co-operation MoU by the end of the year. The text has been discussed, and now we will work for the signature. What are the elements of this energy agreement with Saudi Arabia? It is a new framework to co-operate, particularly, on renewables, hydrogen, and technologies linked to renewables. This is very important, and currently in the hands of the EU commissioner for energy, Kadri Simson, and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the energy minister of Saudi Arabia. Speaking of hydrogen, Prince Abdulaziz spoke here about Saudi Arabia being one of the lowest-cost producers of hydrogen. We also know that hydrogen is a major element of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor [IMEC] agreement signed at the G20 summit in New Delhi. Is the IMEC project still on the table? And is this growing hydrogen relationship between the EU and the GCC part of it? First, the lesson we, the EU, learned is diversification. So, it's very important to implement our diversification policy on any kind of energy source. It is not only linked to oil, gas or hydrogen, or in general, technologies, raw materials and production. Then there is the issue of how much we can count on the suppliers. The Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and others have always been reliable partners. This is why we see the energy co-operation as a pillar of our partnership. On hydrogen, there is a mutual interest to meet our ambitions. Our ambition, according to the European Commission's REPowerEU proposal, is for the EU to produce 10mn t of hydrogen on its soil by 2030, and import another 10 mn t. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman are working with our companies and member states to export hydrogen to Europe. And I think the development of technologies and new projects around that will be at the core of our future co-operation. If you look at Vision 2030, here in Saudi Arabia, but even in the UAE and in the other countries, many of the goals are in line with our REPowerEU, NextGenerationEU, or the European Green Deal proposals. So there is momentum, and we are taking it. We are trying to fill the gap of the past. And the very important thing, not only about hydrogen, but even about the climate co-operation that is in our final statement [of the EU-GCC summit], is that it's not an "Una tantum" [one-off] event. We are working to have the ministerial foreign ministers' meeting in Kuwait next year and the next EU-GCC summit in Saudi Arabia in 2026. We have a long road ahead to implement the deliverables of the last summit, but also to improve our co-operation on renewables. There was a significant breakthrough at Cop 28 with the mention of fossil fuels in the final declaration. Do you see the growing EU-GCC relationship as a leverage to push GCC countries on their climate agendas and goals? The approach should not be that we push them on their climate agendas. We are working together. And thanks to the multilateral relations, ambitions and policies that we have, we can, even in view of Cop 29, co-ordinate in the same way we did at Cop 28. This is very important, because thanks to their influential foreign policy, on Africa, on central Asia, even sometimes on Latin America, and our ambitions and partners around the world, we can merge our relations to take another step forward on climate policy. But as you said, Cop 28 was historic, as consensus was the most ambitious result of the UN climate Cops, and I think we have to continue on this path together. It is not a matter of pushing someone. It's a matter of co-operation. Our level of partnership with GCC has to switch at a strategic level. We want to create a strategic partnership on peace and prosperity. This is our agreed ambition on both sides. Speaking of peace and prosperity, Iran is involved indirectly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and its direct confrontation with Israel leaves the GCC sandwiched in the middle. How do you see the EU working with the GCC to attain peace and prosperity, given the increased insecurity in the region? We share with the GCC the interest of peace, prosperity and stability of the region. Because if you look at these countries, what are they doing on Ukraine, like returning children and prisoner exchanges… They are very active, and we appreciate their efforts. So my perception is that the more we work with the GCC on regional stability, the more we will achieve results, because we have a common agenda. They will be very important for the future of the two-state solution, but also for the stability of Lebanon. Even for conveying messages of de-escalation to Iran. The channels with Iran have to be open… to convey messages about nuclear, ballistic missiles, about weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine, and the ‘Axis of Resistance' policy in the region, about the Red Sea and the freedom of navigation. We have to use all the channels we have and the channels the GCC have are precious because of the normalisation processes in the region, just like the Iran-Saudi Arabia one. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Guatemala's power capacity tender opens tomorrow


30/10/24
News
30/10/24

Guatemala's power capacity tender opens tomorrow

New York, 30 October (Argus) — Guatemala will open a tender for 1.2GW of power capacity on Thursday. The power capacity tender will include supply contracts for 15 years. It will have two components, one to add capacity to existing plants and another for new technologies. It will be the first tender of this kind in eight years. The new capacity is critical as demand is expanding and Guatemala is looking at options to take advantage of opportunities for nearshoring. "This tender is very important, because demand is increasing while supply has been static," Gabriel Velasquez, director of energy planning in the energy ministry, said on the sidelines of the Latin American Energy Organization (Olade) annual meeting in Paraguay. "We want to prioritize renewables, but the technologies chosen will depend on the economic offers we receive." The ministry will also launcha tender for transmission lines in December, the first in 10 years. It will include 483km (300 miles) of 230kV, 138kV and 69kV lines. It will also include two substations. The ministry is simultaneously talking with investors and multilateral development banks to provide power to isolated communities. Velasquez said this could include microgrids and distributed generation using solar technology. Half of Guatemala's electricity currently comes from hydroelectric sources, with another 45pc coming from thermal generation and the rest from other technologies. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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