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Delta pulls full-year forecast on tariff uncertainty

  • Market: Metals, Oil products
  • 09/04/25

Delta Air Lines pulled its full-year 2025 financial guidance today, citing US tariff-related uncertainty.

"Given the lack of economic clarity, it is premature at this time to provide an updated full-year outlook," the airline said Wednesday in an earnings call.

Delta said it hoped the growing tariff war woudl be resolved through trade negotiations, but that it also told its main aircraft manufacturer, Airbus, that it would not purchase any aircraft that includes a tariff fee.

In the meantime, Delta is protecting margins and cash flow by focusing on what it can control, including reducing planned capacity growth in the second half of the year to flat compared to last year, while also managing costs and capital expenses, chief executive Ed Bastion said.

The company reported a profit of $298mn in the first quarter of 2025, up slightly from $288mn in the first quarter of 2024.

The company's fuel expenses were down by 7pc in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year period. The average price Delta paid for jet fuel was $2.45/USG, down by 11pc to the prior year period.


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02/05/25

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

Shell’s 1Q profit falls but beats expectations

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell's Integrated Gas business segment delivered a solid performance in the first quarter, helping the UK major exceed analysts' earnings estimates despite ongoing struggles in its downstream Chemicals and Products business. Shell reported a first-quarter profit of $4.8bn, down from $7.4bn a year earlier. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, profit was $5.6bn, surpassing analysts' expectations of $5.3bn. Integrated Gas was Shell's top-performing segment, with a profit of $2.8bn, slightly higher than the first quarter of 2024. Production was down by 6.6pc year-on-year at 927,000 b/d oil equivalent (boe/d), but up 2pc from the previous quarter. Less maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids plant in Qatar had a positive impact on production, Shell said. But the company's LNG volumes were affected by unplanned maintenance and weather constraints in Australia, falling to 6.6mn t from 7.6mn t a year earlier. The Upstream segment posted a profit of $2.1bn, down by 8.5pc on a year earlier but double what it made in the fourth quarter of 2024. The segment was hit with a $509mn tax charge related to the UK's Energy Profits Levy in the first quarter, partially offset by gains from asset sales. Production for the segment was slightly down compared to a year earlier at 1.86mn boe/d, partly due to the divestment of Shell's SPDC business in Nigeria. Overall, Shell's first-quarter production was 2.84mn boe/d, down from 2.91mn boe/d a year earlier but up from 2.82mn boe/d in the previous quarter. Shell expects lower production in the current quarter, ranging from 2.45mn boe/d to 2.71mn boe/d due to maintenance across its Integrated Gas portfolio and the absence of volumes from the SPDC business. The Chemicals and Products segment reported a $77mn loss for the first quarter, compared to a $1.3bn profit a year earlier. Refinery runs were down by 4.8pc year-on-year, and chemicals sales volumes were marginally lower. Despite persistent low margins in the downstream, Shell noted that refining and chemicals margins improved compared to the fourth quarter. Shell expects capital spending for 2025 to be within a $20bn-$22bn range, in line with last year's spending. The company is maintaining its dividend at 35.8¢/share and its share buyback programme at $3.5bn a quarter. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US bill would extend expired biofuel credits


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US bill would extend expired biofuel credits

New York, 1 May (Argus) — Legislation soon to be introduced in the US House would extend expired biofuel incentives through 2026, potentially providing a reprieve to refiners that have curbed production this year because of policy uncertainty. The bill, which will be sponsored by US representative Mike Carey (R-Ohio) and some other Republicans on the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, according to a person familiar, could be introduced as soon as today. It would prolong both the long-running $1/USG for blenders of biomass-based diesel and a separate incentive that offers up to $1.01/USG for producers of cellulosic ethanol. The credits expired at the end of last year but under the proposal would be extended through both 2025 and 2026. The incentives would run alongside the Inflation Reduction Act's new "45Z" credit for clean fuel producers, which offers a sliding scale of benefits based on carbon intensity, though the bill would prevent double claiming of credits, according to bill text shared with Argus . The 45Z credit is less generous across the board to road fuels — offering $1/USG only for carbon-neutral fuels and much less for crop-based diesels — and is still in need of final rules after President Joe Biden's administration issued only preliminary guidance around qualifying. The proposal then would effectively offer a more generous alternative through 2026 for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and cellulosic ethanol but not for other fuels that can claim the technology-neutral 45Z incentive. That could upend the economics of renewable fuel production. Vegetable oil-based diesels for instance could claim the blenders credit and earn more than aviation fuels that draw from the same feedstocks. According to Argus Consulting estimates, aviation fuels derived from wastes like distillers corn oil and domestic used cooking should still earn more than $1/USG this year, conversely, since 45Z is more generous to aviation fuels. Extending the biodiesel blenders credit would also allow foreign fuel imports to again claim federal subsidies, a boost for Finnish refiner Neste and the ailing Canadian biofuel startup Braya Renewable Fuels but a controversial provision for US refiners and feedstock suppliers. The 45Z incentive can only be claimed by US producers. The blenders incentive is also popular among fuel marketer groups, which have warned that shifting subsidies to producers could up fuel costs. The proposal adds to a contentious debate taking place across the biofuel value chain about what the future of clean fuel incentives should look like. Some industry groups see a wholesale reversion to preexisting biofuel credits — or even a temporary period where various partly overlapping incentives coexist — as a tough sell to cost-concerned lawmakers and have instead pushed for revamping 45Z. A proposal last month backed by some farm groups would keep the 45Z incentive but ban foreign feedstocks and adjust carbon intensity modeling to benefit crops. Republicans could keep, modify, extend, or repeal the 45Z incentive as part of negotiations around a larger tax bill this year. But the caucus is still negotiating how much to reduce the federal budget deficit and what to do with Inflation Reduction Act incentives that have spurred clean energy projects in conservative districts. Uncertainty about the future of biofuel policy and sharply lower margins to start 2025 have led to a recently pronounced drop in biodiesel and renewable diesel production . President Donald Trump's administration is working on new biofuel blend mandates, which could be proposed in the coming weeks, but has said little about its plans for biofuel tax policy. By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

GM cuts guidance on up to $5bn tariff exposure

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Automaker General Motors (GM) revised its 2025 guidance lower today to reflect $4bn-5bn of exposure to auto tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Full-year 2025 profit guidance was lowered to a $8.2bn-10.1bn range, from the $11.2bn-12.5bn guidance given in the company's fourth quarter earnings call earlier this year. The new guidance takes into account clarifications to tariffs already imposed on automakers earlier this week. GM's tariff exposure includes $2bn of vehicles imported from South Korea and tariffs on autos imported from Mexico and Canada, as well as "indirect material imports." GM said it expects to offset 30pc of the exposure by producing an additional 50,000 full-size trucks/yr at its Fort Wayne, Indiana, plant and expanding battery module assembly in the US. GM will also work to ensure its supply chain is US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) compliant and nearshore its production, executives said. More than 80pc of GM's supply chain is USMCA compliant, most of which is based in the US. US president Donald Trump on 29 April offered to offset a 25pc tariff on imported auto parts scheduled to be imposed on 3 May and to exempt auto parts from accumulating these and and other import tariffs. Trump imposed a 25pc tariff on imported cars on 3 April. GM on 29 April rescheduled its earnings call but released its first quarter earnings on schedule that day. The company reported sales of 693,000 vehicles in the US in the first quarter, up by 17pc from the prior-year quarter. Electric vehicle (EV) sales rose by 94pc to 32,000 units in the same period. Global sales rose by 7pc to 1.44mn vehicles in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024. GM posted a $2.8bn profit in the first quarter, down by 7pc from a year earlier, which was partially attributed to higher costs. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria’s Warri refinery restart threatened by strike


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

Nigeria’s Warri refinery restart threatened by strike

Lagos, 1 May (Argus) — Plans to restart a section of Nigeria's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery are at risk due to an indefinite strike planned by plant support staff starting on 5 May. The strike is in protest against casualisation, low pay and lack of benefits. A source at the refinery told Argus last week that state-owned NNPC intends to restart the crude and vacuum distillation units (CDU and VDU) and a gas plant in the first week of May. But the support staff have timed their strike to disrupt these plans. Support staff representative Dafe Ighomitedo said the striking workers make up two-thirds of Warri's staff and have been protesting their employment terms since 2015. The refinery has been undergoing a $492mn quick-fix repair contract with South Korean engineering firm Daewoo since June 2022 to restore 60pc of its nameplate capacity. A previous strike called in April 2022 would have delayed the start of the quick-fix programme, but it was called off following appeals from community leaders and a promise from refinery management to address the workers' demands if they supported the programme, Ighomitedo said. Workers were promised an improved salary structure upon the refinery's restart but that promise has not been fulfilled, he added. NNPC did not respond to Argus' requests for comment. NNPC restarted Warri in December last year and crude runs had ramped up to about 78,000 b/d before the refinery was shut again in January "to carry out necessary intervention works on select equipment, including field instruments that were impacting sustainable and steady operations", the company said. NNPC cancelled crude oil allocations to Warri in February and March, reoffering the volumes for export, but said last month that all units at the refinery would be online within a year. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April


01/05/25
News
01/05/25

US factory activity contracts for 2nd month in April

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — US manufacturing activity contracted in April for a second month, as output and new orders slowed on tariff policy uncertainty, while price gains accelerated. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April, down from 49 in March and the lowest since last November. The threshold between contraction and expansion is 50. The two-month contraction in manufacturing activity follows a two-month expansion preceded by 26 consecutive months of contraction. ISM's services PMI, a separate report that tracks the biggest part of the economy, showed nine months of expansion through March. "Demand and production retreated and de-staffing continued, as panelists' companies responded to an unknown economic environment," ISM said Thursday. "Prices growth accelerated slightly due to tariffs, causing new-order placement backlogs, supplier delivery slowdowns and manufacturing inventory growth." The manufacturing data follows a report Wednesday that showed the US economy contracted at an annualized 0.3pc pace in the first quarter as businesses boosted imports and stocked up on goods ahead of US import tariffs. The ISM's new-orders index came in at 47.2, higher than 45.2 in March but showing contraction for a third month. The production index fell to 44, showing a deepening contraction from 48.3 in the prior month. Employment rose by 1.8 points to 46.5, showing a slowing contraction. New export orders contracted faster at 43.1 in April, while imports entered contraction at 47.1 after barely growing, at 50.1, the prior month. The prices index rose to 69.8, up from 69.4 the prior month and signaling quickening expansion. The inventories index fell by 2.6 points to 50.8, marking a second month of expansion after six months of contraction. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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