Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

Opec upgrades 2023 oil demand growth forecast

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 13/11/23

Opec upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 and said "exaggerated negative sentiments" explain the recent slide in oil prices.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised up its 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 20,000 b/d from last month to 2.46mn b/d. This was mainly driven by third and fourth quarter upgrades to China's oil demand growth, which Opec now sees at 1.14mn b/d in 2023, up by 70,000 b/d.

"Recent data confirm robust major global growth trends and healthy oil market fundamentals," it said.

Opec said China's crude imports increasing to 11.4mn b/d in October and remained on track to reach a record this year, "despite the overblown negative sentiment" regarding the country's oil demand. It said India's crude imports will pick up in the fourth quarter to reach a record high this year.

Opec revised up its fourth quarter global oil demand forecast by 150,000 b/d compared with last month, to 103.28mn b/d. It kept its 2024 oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25mn b/d.

The group said the recent fall in oil prices was "mainly driven by financial market speculators" that "sharply reduced their net long positions over the month of October, compared to the late September."

Front month Ice Brent has been on a downward spiral in the past few weeks, falling from around $93/bl in mid-October to around $82/bl as of midday London time today.

The group increased its non-Opec liquids supply growth forecast for this year by 100,000 b/d and once again upgraded its supply forecast for Russia. It now sees non-Opec liquids supply rising by 1.78mn b/d this year, compared with a 1.68mn b/d increase in last month's forecast.

The revision was mainly driven by upgrades to Russian, US and Brazilian supply, partly offset by downward revisions from Canada and Norway.

Opec expects sanctions-hit Russia to produce 10.61mn b/d of liquids in 2023, 80,000 b/d more than in last month's projection. It forecasts Russian supply will remain at 10.61mn b/d next year.

Opec's call on its members' crude was revised down by 50,000 b/d in 2023 and 2024 to 29.08mn b/d and 29.88mn b/d, respectively. The group produced 27.9mn b/d of crude last month, up by 80,000 b/d from September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
12/02/25

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

US trade policy adds uncertainty to oil market: Opec

London, 12 February (Argus) — Opec said today that the US' new trade policies have added "more uncertainty" into global oil markets. This uncertainty "has the potential to create supply-demand imbalances that are not reflective of market fundamentals, and therefore generate more volatility", Opec said in its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The producer group said the uncertainty has also "increased inflation expectations" and "made it more challenging to cut interest rates in 2025". US president Donald Trump started his new term in January with threats to impose a wide array of import tariffs on several big trading partners. Washington has so far announced new tariffs on imports from China, as well as on all US imports of steel and aluminium. And Trump says more tariffs are on the way. For now, Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 unchanged. For this year, the group sees oil demand growing by 1.45mn b/d to 105.2mn b/d, while in 2026 it sees consumption increasing by 1.43mn b/d to 106.63mn b/d. In terms of supply, the group has downgraded its growth forecast for non-Opec+ liquids for 2025 and 2026 by 100,000 b/d each to 1mn b/d for both years. The downgrade is driven by the US and Latin America. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 118,000 b/d to 40.625mn b/d, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . Opec puts the call on Opec+ crude at 42.6mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024


12/02/25
News
12/02/25

Americas dominate Spain's crude imports in 2024

Madrid, 12 February (Argus) — Spain's crude imports from the Americas climbed sharply in 2024 to account for more than half of total receipts for the first time on record. Spanish crude imports increased by 5pc on the year to more than 1.29mn b/d, according to petroleum reserves regulator Cores, driven by double-digit growth in receipts from the three largest suppliers the US, Mexico and Brazil. This combined with a respective doubling and tripling of imports from smaller suppliers Venezuela and Guyana to give the Americas a 53pc share of Spanish receipts in 2024, up from 47pc in 2023. Imports were 200,000 b/d below the Spanish refining system's 1.49mn b/d of crude distillation capacity, which like other European countries refineries continued to struggle with competition from cheap imported finished products. North America accounted for 31pc of imports. The US led suppliers for a second consecutive year, with receipts rising by 18pc to 214,000 b/d. Imports from Mexico climbed by 20pc to 161,000 b/d as higher supplies of lighter Olmeca and Isthmus grades more than offset lower amounts of heavy Maya crude at integrated Repsol's refineries. Receipts from Spain's second largest supplier Brazil climbed by 38pc to 181,000 b/d. Those from Venezuela more than doubled to 58,000 b/d after Repsol increased imports under its crude-for-debt deal with state-owned PdV. The Mideast Gulf accounted for just 8pc of Spanish crude imports in 2024, down from 12pc in 2023 as unrest in the region reshaped shipping routes. Receipts from Iraq dropped by 38pc to 38,000 b/d, from Saudi Arabia they fell by 15pc to 70,000 b/d and there were none from the UAE. Africa's share of Spain's crude slate narrowed in 2024. Receipts from Nigeria fell by 21pc to 129,000 b/d, and from Libya they fell by 13pc to 88,000 b/d. Opec's share of Spanish crude imports fell to a record low of 37pc in 2024 from 44pc in 2023 and around 50pc over the past decade. Its share was 35pc of 1.24mn b/d in December. Spain's year-on-year import growth slowed to 3pc in December from 14pc in November. Deliveries were lower at Repsol's 220,000 b/d Bilbao refinery ahead of maintenance in January, rose at Moeve's 244,000 b/d Algeciras facility after conclusion of work there and rose back to capacity at Repsol's 135,000 b/d Coruna after maintenance finished at the start of December. Spain imported crude from 15 countries in December, down from 17 in November as slates narrowed and receipts rose from Nigeria and Mexico. By Jonathan Gleave Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Petrobras considers India for crude: CEO

Sao Paulo, 11 February (Argus) — Brazilian state-controlled Petrobras is considering opportunities in deepwater and ultra-deepwater crude blocks in India, chief executive Magda Chambriard said today. The Indian government announced on Tuesday, during the India Energy Week conference held in New Delhi, that it will offer 25 deepwater and ultra-deepwater oil blocks, Chambriard said. "We will carefully evaluate these opportunities, always looking for new production frontiers, which will guarantee us security and financing for the energy transition," she added. Petrobras has been looking for alternatives to replenish its crude reserves, as those in its main source of oil — Brazil's pre-salt — are dwindling. But reserves are not in immediate danger, as the firm's proven oil and natural gas reserves rose by 4.6pc to 11.4bn bl of oil equivalent (boe) at the end of 2024. The company's 2025-29 strategic plan envisions investments in Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia and Africa, but this is the first time Petrobras mentioned India as a potential source of crude. Still, the company's main bets to replenish reserves are the southern Pelotas basin and the Foz do Amazonas basin in the northern equatorial margin. The latter could contain 10bn of recoverable bl of oil equivalent, according to energy research bureau EPE. Petrobras is awaiting permission to start exploratory drilling there , after it appealed environmental agency Ibama's May 2023 decision to deny the license on environmental grounds. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Feyzin bitumen output halted as part of wider stoppage

London, 11 February (Argus) — Bitumen production at TotalEnergies' 109,300 b/d Feyzin refinery near Lyon, central France, is halted from 10-20 February as part of a wider shutdown affecting the refinery's crude distillation unit (CDU) and reformer. Workers at the plant said last week there had been unexpectedly extended CDU works caused by a blockage by unspecified debris . TotalEnergies said at the time it would not comment on operations. Officials at the company confirmed today the CDU and reformer were among units shut at Feyzin, but said the halt was planned. They said the CDU had suffered no unexpected blockage or damage. Workers reiterated today that debris had been detected in the CDU and that this could result in a shutdown lasting weeks. Sources familiar with the refinery's operations said today that the bitumen halt would cause no supply disruptions in terms of the usual truck movements, with sufficient stocks held at the plant to meet current low-level requirements during the winter slow activity period in the road paving and other construction sectors. By Fenella Rhodes and Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Power outage shuts Norway's Sverdrup oil field: Update


11/02/25
News
11/02/25

Power outage shuts Norway's Sverdrup oil field: Update

Updates throughout London, 11 February (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor has confirmed that a power outage has forced it to shut down production from Johan Sverdrup, the North Sea's largest oil field, as well as other oil and gas fields in the area. "We have experienced an incident involving smoke development in a control room connected to one of the converter stations at Haugsneset near Karsto," the company said. "This station supplies power to Johan Sverdrup and other fields on the Utsira High. The incident has resulted in a temporary shutdown of production." Equinor said it is working to restore power supply to the fields. According to its website, the affected power line also supplies the Gina Krog, Ivar Aasen, Edvard Grieg and Gudrun fields. Edvard Grieg and Ivar Aasen feed into the medium sour Grane crude blend. It is the second time in a week that Johan Sverdrup has been disrupted by a power outage. The field was shut down briefly on 4 February because of power supply issues onshore. Power was restored the same day, and the field had been ramping back up up to full operations on 5 February. At the time, Equinor did not expect any delays to loadings. Johan Sverdrup produces the largest stream of middle distillate-rich crude in Europe, with a plateau capacity of 755,000 b/d. The field averaged around 712,000 b/d in 2024. Its output was around plateau levels in March, April and July last year, but Equinor expects capacity to drop early this year. The grade was valued at a $1.65/bl premium to benchmark North Sea Dated on 10 February, a seven-month high, supported by a perceived global tightness in the supply of medium grades. The US tightened sanctions on the Russian fleet last month, which pushed refiners in Asia-Pacific to look for alternative, unsanctioned grades. Grane is the second-largest medium sour stream in the region, with around 180,000 b/d exported last year, according to loading programmes. Official production data show Ivar Aasen contributed around 18,000 b/d to the Grane stream last year and Edvard Grieg accounted for 38,000 b/d. Grane prices surged to a $2.50/bl premium to Dated in recent assessments, up from a $1/bl discount in early January. By Lina Bulyk Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more