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Opec upgrades 2023 oil demand growth forecast

  • Market: Crude oil
  • 13/11/23

Opec upgraded its oil demand growth forecast for 2023 and said "exaggerated negative sentiments" explain the recent slide in oil prices.

In its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), published today, Opec revised up its 2023 oil demand growth forecast by 20,000 b/d from last month to 2.46mn b/d. This was mainly driven by third and fourth quarter upgrades to China's oil demand growth, which Opec now sees at 1.14mn b/d in 2023, up by 70,000 b/d.

"Recent data confirm robust major global growth trends and healthy oil market fundamentals," it said.

Opec said China's crude imports increasing to 11.4mn b/d in October and remained on track to reach a record this year, "despite the overblown negative sentiment" regarding the country's oil demand. It said India's crude imports will pick up in the fourth quarter to reach a record high this year.

Opec revised up its fourth quarter global oil demand forecast by 150,000 b/d compared with last month, to 103.28mn b/d. It kept its 2024 oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25mn b/d.

The group said the recent fall in oil prices was "mainly driven by financial market speculators" that "sharply reduced their net long positions over the month of October, compared to the late September."

Front month Ice Brent has been on a downward spiral in the past few weeks, falling from around $93/bl in mid-October to around $82/bl as of midday London time today.

The group increased its non-Opec liquids supply growth forecast for this year by 100,000 b/d and once again upgraded its supply forecast for Russia. It now sees non-Opec liquids supply rising by 1.78mn b/d this year, compared with a 1.68mn b/d increase in last month's forecast.

The revision was mainly driven by upgrades to Russian, US and Brazilian supply, partly offset by downward revisions from Canada and Norway.

Opec expects sanctions-hit Russia to produce 10.61mn b/d of liquids in 2023, 80,000 b/d more than in last month's projection. It forecasts Russian supply will remain at 10.61mn b/d next year.

Opec's call on its members' crude was revised down by 50,000 b/d in 2023 and 2024 to 29.08mn b/d and 29.88mn b/d, respectively. The group produced 27.9mn b/d of crude last month, up by 80,000 b/d from September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus.


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11/02/25

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum

Washington, 10 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today imposed a 25pc tariff on all US imports of steel and aluminum, although he said he would consider making an exemption for imports from Australia. In remarks to reporters at the White House Trump complained that many of the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed since 2018 have been moderated or reduced for some countries. Currently Australia and Canada can export any steel and aluminum they want to into the US without tariffs, while Mexico can export steel melted and poured in the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement region into the US without tariffs, while any material with an origin outside of USMCA is subject to 25pc tariffs. "Our nation requires steel and aluminum to be made in America, not in foreign lands," Trump said. "It's 25pc without exceptions, and that's all countries, no matter where it comes from, all countries." But Trump, prompted by reporters, confirmed that he may make an exemption for Australian-sourced steel, after Canberra threatened to take reciprocal measures. "We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few," Trump said, referring to an overall trade surplus the US runs with Australia. "And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes." Trump said he spoke with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese earlier today. "I told him that [steel tariff exemptions] is something that we will give great consideration." A similar exemption for the UK is unlikely since the US already is running a trade deficit with that country, Trump said. Trump contended that his initial volley of tariffs in 2018 led to the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and boosted economic growth. A 2019 study from the Federal Reserve Board that was updated in 2024 estimates that taking into account retaliatory tariffs, there was a net decrease in US jobs and economic growth from the tariffs. US oil and gas midstream companies were among the industries hit by the 2018 tariffs, which led to higher costs for pipeline steel. Most steel imports from non-tariffed US steel imports are heavily reliant on the countries that are currently not subject to US tariffs, with their volumes making up 80pc of the 26.2mn metric tonnes (t) of steel products imported in 2024, according to US Department of Commerce data. Steel tariff rate quota (TRQ) systems are in place for Argentina, Brazil, the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK for steel products, with specifics dependent on the country. The CME Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market jumped today, after Trump said on Sunday he would impose new tariffs, by $51/short ton (st) for March to $856/st, while April increased by $48/st to $858/st. Steel costs would rise by $6.38bn based on the $25.5bn value of 2024 steel imports from those nontariffed countries, if volumes remained the same. Those higher costs would lead to more US steel mill price increases, with one buyer expecting another round of price increases coming soon from US steelmakers. Steelmaker Nucor has increased its published hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot price by $40/short ton (st) in the last three weeks to $790/st. Other steelmakers like ArcelorMittal USA, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel are at $800/st offers for their spot HRC. Canada key aluminum supplier In the aluminum market, the US imported over 6mn t of products in 2024, according to customs data. Canadian aluminum exporters currently have no restrictions on their volumes into the US. They shipped the highest volumes into the US and are responsible for an even larger share of primary aluminum imports. Current US primary aluminum smelting capacity, excluding idled operations, is around 795,000t/yr, which equaled less than one-third of Canadian imports and one-fifth of total imports. There are multiple idled primary aluminum facilities and a greenfield plant currently under construction, but observers and company representatives challenged the feasibility of idled plant restarts in the past. TRQ systems exist for US aluminum imports from Argentina, the EU, and the UK. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month


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10/02/25

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

London, 10 February (Argus) — Nigeria's privately-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery could reach maximum operating capacity within a month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who said the plant touched 85pc of nameplate capacity at the end of January. The stated goal appears ambitious, with data from Kpler and Vortexa showing Dangote ran at an implied range of 395,000-430,000 b/d to date this month, which is between 61-66pc of capacity. The implied range was 350,000-400,000 b/d in January, or 54-62pc operating capacity. Argus pegged Dangote's crude receipts at 405,000 b/d in January, a record. Dangote runs may be boosted by upstream regulator NUPRC's decision in early February to ensure Nigeria's crude is supplied to meet domestic refinery demand, before it issues crude export permits. Routine maintenance at state-owned NNPC's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery could have made more domestic crude available for Dangote use. Crude allocations to Warri were cancelled and offered out to the wider market last week, according to a market participant. But this would have been a short-term measure, with a source saying the work at Warri was completed as of 9 February, and around 1.15mn bl of crude are scheduled to be pumped to the plant. Downstream regulator NMDPRA projected that Dangote will require 550,000 b/d of Nigerian crude grades for the period January–June 2025, while NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants will require 60,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d, respectively. Nigeria produced 1.51mn b/d of crude in January, according to Argus' estimate. Warri restarted at the end of 2024, having been offline since 2019. Diesel loadings from the refinery have averaged eight trucks per day, sources said last week, with sufficient supply available to sustain ongoing truck load-out operations. Warri has not started producing gasoline, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January


10/02/25
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10/02/25

Mexico inflation slows to 4-year low in January

Mexico City, 10 February (Argus) — Mexico's consumer price index (CPI) eased to an annual 3.59pc January, the lowest in four years, as deceleration in agriculture prices offset faster inflation in energy and consumer goods prices. This marks the lowest annual inflation since January 2021 and a significant slowdown from July's annual peak of 5.57pc, which was driven by weather-impacted food prices. The result, reported by statistics agency Inegi on 7 January, was slightly below than the 3.63pc median estimate from 35 analysts polled in Citi Research's 5 February survey. It compares with the 4.21pc headline inflation in December, marking five months of declines in the past six months. Mexican core inflation, which excluded volatile energy and food, sped slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, while non-core inflation decelerated to 3.34pc from 5.95pc the previous month. Movement, in the non-core, said Banorte, was mostly explained by a positive basis of comparison, and "will reverse as soon as the second half of February to push the headline metric above 4pc," said Banorte. Core inflation accelerated slightly to 3.66pc in January from 3.65pc in December, marking the second uptick after 22 consecutive months of deceleration. Services inflation slowed to 4.69pc from 4.94pc, while consumer goods inflation ticked up to 2.74 from 2.4pc. Non-core inflation slowed sharply to 3.34pc from 6.57pc in December. This was largely due to base effects, Banorte said, adding these base effects are likely to fade this month to speed headline annual inflation back above 4pc. The base effects most clearly impacted fruit and vegetable price inflation, contracting 7.73pc in January from 6.65pc annual inflation the previous month. Moving forward, agriculture prices are highly exposed to the coming hot, dry season in Mexico, with the La Nina climate phenomenon, adding a layer of uncertainty. Meanwhile, energy inflation accelerated to 6.34pc in January from 5.73pc the previous month, driven by higher LPG prices. Electricity inflation, meanwhile, sped to 4.32pc in January from 2.65pc in December, while inflation slowed to 0.02pc in January for domestic natural gas prices from 5.67pc in December. Monetary policy The January inflation report followed the central bank's decision Thursday to reduce its target interest rate to 9.50pc from 10pc. This was the bank's sixth rate cut since March 2024, winding down from 11.25pc. The 4-1 decision marked an acceleration in the current rate cycle, opting for a half-point reduction rather than the previous five 25-basis-point cuts. In board comments with the announcement, the bank cited "significant progress in resolving the inflationary episode derived from the global shocks" in 2021 and 2022. These triggered rate hikes from 4pc in June 2021 to 11.25pc in April 2022, the target rate's historic high. Taking into account the "country's weak economic activity" and this progress in reducing inflation, the board said it would "consider adjusting [the target] by similar magnitudes" at upcoming meetings. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Opec+ output policy trumps Trump


10/02/25
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10/02/25

Opec+ output policy trumps Trump

London, 10 February (Argus) — A key meeting of Opec+ ministers last week effectively backed the alliance's current output policy, which would not see any production returned to market until April. Opec+ has not, for now at least, heeded US president Donald Trump's call for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil", something it could potentially do by raising output. As things stand, Opec+ members are due to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts from April, and it intends to do this over an 18-month period rather than a previously scheduled 12 months. When the group took that decision in December, the Opec secretariat said this was "to support market stability" — an implicit nod to the uncertain demand picture and projections of a looming supply surplus in 2025. There appears to be little chance of this being expedited by Trump's call, which he made within days of taking office in January. 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This fall means Opec+ has slashed its production by 4.01mn b/d since October 2022, when it announced the first of its current round of cuts. Compliance has improved in recent months, with output 340,000 b/d below the collective target of 33.85mn b/d in January. There is still room for improvement. Iraq has slipped back into the red, exceeding its target by 20,000 b/d last month. Gabon was 80,000 b/d above its target. Kazakhstan's compliance has picked up recently, but the start of a new production phase at the Tengiz oil field has raised questions over its willingness to stick to its quota this year. But the group is keeping the pressure on. The statement following the JMMC meeting once again put a large emphasis on the importance of member conformity with production targets. It stressed the need for members that have exceeded their targets to fully deliver on their pledges to compensate for past overproduction. These must be delivered by the end of September. By Aydin Calik and Nader Itayim Opec+ crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Non-Opec 9 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 Total 33.51 33.53 33.85 -0.34 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Opec wellhead production mn b/d Jan Dec Jan target† ± target Saudi Arabia 8.88 8.91 8.98 -0.10 Iraq 4.02 3.99 4.00 +0.02 Kuwait 2.42 2.44 2.41 +0.01 UAE 2.87 2.85 2.91 -0.04 Algeria 0.90 0.91 0.91 -0.01 Nigeria 1.51 1.55 1.50 +0.01 Congo (Brazzaville) 0.26 0.27 0.28 -0.02 Gabon 0.25 0.24 0.17 +0.08 Equatorial Guinea 0.06 0.07 0.07 -0.01 Opec 9 21.17 21.23 21.23 -0.06 Iran 3.33 3.40 na na Libya 1.35 1.31 na na Venezuela 0.90 0.90 na na Total Opec 12^ 26.75 26.84 na na †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets Non-Opec crude production mn b/d Jan Dec* Jan target† ± target Russia 8.96 8.97 8.98 -0.02 Oman 0.75 0.75 0.76 -0.01 Azerbaijan 0.49 0.49 0.55 -0.06 Kazakhstan 1.49 1.40 1.47 +0.02 Malaysia 0.28 0.33 0.40 -0.12 Bahrain 0.19 0.19 0.20 -0.01 Brunei 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.02 Sudan 0.02 0.02 0.06 -0.04 South Sudan 0.06 0.06 0.12 -0.06 Total non-Opec 12.34 12.30 12.62 -0.28 *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador


10/02/25
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10/02/25

Noboa's tight lead triggers runoff in Ecuador

Quito, 10 February (Argus) — Ecuador will hold a second-round presidential election on 13 April after incumbent President Daniel Noboa had a closer-than-expected lead over his main challenger in Sunday's election, the electoral authority said. Noboa had 44.5pc of votes as of 11:30pm ET on Sunday, closely followed by Luisa Gonzalez, the candidate for the Citizens' Revolution party with 44.1pc, with 80pc of votes counted, the national electoral council (CNE) said. Ecuador's presidential election goes to a second round if the winning candidate does not have more than 50pc of votes or 40pc of votes with a 10-percentage point lead over the runner-up. Gonzalez' party was founded by exiled former president Rafael Correa, a close friend and supporter of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro. Correa guided taking on crude-backed loans from China during his term and oversaw a rewrite of the constitution, allowing him to serve for 10 years. Gonzalez in brief comments said she was optimistic about winning the second round, while Noboa did not speak publicly. This is the first time since 2006 that the candidate with Correa's party did not win at least the initial round of a presidential race. Pachacutik candidate Leonidas Iza was in third place with 4.8pc of votes. His party is the political arm of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) that led an 18-day national strike in June 2022, cutting Ecuador's crude production by 17pc that month. The remaining 13 candidates obtained about 6.6pc of the valid votes. About 13.7mn Ecuadorians were required to appear at the polls. Voting is mandatory in the South American country, but only around 85pc actually voted. Ecuadorians also voted for 151 members of the national assembly. Gonazalez' party and Noboa's National Democratic Action party are forecast to win the biggest shares, but officials results will not be known for several days. By Alberto Araujo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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