Potash
Overview
The potash market has been disrupted from its traditional trade flows and typically slow-moving price cycles, affected by new entrants, new mines, military conflicts and political tensions in countries that either produce or consume some of the largest quantities of potash in the world. The need for accurate insight and data is more acute than ever.
Our extensive potash coverage includes MOP, SOP and NOP. Argus has many decades of experience covering the potash market and we incorporate our multi-commodity market expertise to provide potash price assessments, analysis and data that provides the full narrative.
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Latest potash news
Browse the latest market moving news on the global potash industry.
High US potash stocks to delay tariff reaction: Update
High US potash stocks to delay tariff reaction: Update
Updates text to include tariff delay for Canadian goods. Houston, 6 March (Argus) — Ample stocks of potash in the US would likely delay the impact of the US' Canadian import tariffs on prices and volumes, according to North American fertilizer market participants. Leading up to the February and March deadlines for the tariffs, a significant volume of Canadian potash was brought into the US, adding onto stockpiles leftover from the fall application season, according to sources. Potash price movement has been minimal since Tuesday, when the US tariffs were initially put in place before being delayed Thursday, partly because of the stockpiling and because some of the impact of the tariff is already priced into the market. MOP trade at Nola has been flat week-over-week at around $305/st fob. That is up by $50/st from the start of January but $12.50/st lower than the final week of February 2024. US potash producers Mosaic and Intrepid said an increase in the price of potash from the tariffs would likely materialize for second quarter product. It is unclear what the overall impact on the market would be, but Mosaic said that it would be borne by downstream distributors and end users. Mosaic also added that the overall impact of tariffs is unclear but that North American and global potash demand would remain robust. The product should remain affordable, Mosaic said, despite expectations of significant disruptions in global potash trade flows and logistics. But with the impending start of the spring application season on the horizon, and expectations of robust potash demand, potash prices at Nola and further inland could rise. Earlier today President Donald Trump announced that Mexico, which also was hit with a 25pc tariff on its goods this week, would not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement at least through 2 April. A similar deal for Canadian goods was announced shortly afterward. Potash market participants said early Thursday morning that potash could be carved out of the policy in the future, a position advocated by industry groups Agricultural Retailers Association and The Fertilizer Institute. "Nobody wants this," one source said. "But we are going to hunker down and take [the tariffs] day-to-day." There is additional confusion among buyers of Canadian potash on how the tariffs will be implemented with shipments that have already been negotiated and which buyers will receive shipments from US warehouses or from across the border. By Taylor Zavala Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Chile’s SQM to halve MOP sales in 2025
Chile’s SQM to halve MOP sales in 2025
London, 6 March (Argus) — Chilean producer SQM expects its potash sales to fall by 50pc this year as it continues to prioritise lithium at the expense of MOP at its Salar de Atacama site, and diverts more potash for NOP production. SQM sold 695,000t of potash in 2024, up from 543,000t in 2023, suggesting 2025 sales could fall to 350,000t. Sales in 2024 exceeded expectations thanks to strong demand in Brazil, Europe and India, as well as higher than anticipated sales of SOP from third parties. In November, the company revised down its 2024 MOP sales forecast by 30,000t to 620,000t, having upped its forecast to 650,000t in the previous quarter. Despite higher sales volumes, potash revenue fell to $271mn in 2024 from $279mn in 2023 because of lower average sales prices. Fourth-quarter revenue hit $66mn, up from $51mn a year earlier, as sales volumes rose to 166,000t from 113,000t. Sales from SQM's specialty plant nutrition business were up by 17pc last year, at 982,900t. NOP and sodium potassium nitrate sales accounted for 534,000t of this, up by 20pc. Revenue from the speciality plant nutrition business hit $942mn last year, up from $914mn in 2023. Gains were capped by a 12pc decline in average sales prices — to $958/t from $1,088/t. SQM sees the global NOP market growing by 4-5pc this year, and expects its NOP sales volumes to rise in line with or slightly above this level. It expects prices to be similar to those in the second half of 2024. By Aidan Hall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US tariff on Canadian potash imports goes ahead
US tariff on Canadian potash imports goes ahead
London, 4 March (Argus) — US tariffs on Canadian imports, including a 25pc tariff on potash, have come into effect today after most market participants expected it to either be further delayed or for an exemption on potash imports. US president Donald Trump signed executive orders on 1 February to impose a 25pc levy on all US imports from Canada from 4 February, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff. This was subsequently postponed to 4 March. Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies so heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. The US has limited domestic MOP production and more than 80pc of its potash needs are from Canada — 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP will only further limit supply options. The upcoming US spring market should largely be unaffected as suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but granular MOP prices have been on an upwards trend. The president of US fertilizer company Mosaic Bruce Bodine said in an earnings call last week that Mosaic expects potash to remain "affordable" and for no demand destruction to occur because of the tariffs. But affordability could change if corn prices fall or potash prices increase. Whether prices could change enough to affect US consumption is unclear. At a global level, MOP prices remain firm and the implementation of the tariffs today are unlikely to prompt any major change in reactions from key markets. Market participants will keep a close eye on any potential change in trade flows. Canada has responded with its own retaliatory tariffs on $30bn of US imports, followed by another $125bn of imports in 21 days' time. By Julia Campbell Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25
Mosaic aims to restore fertilizer output in '25
Houston, 3 March (Argus) — North American fertilizer producer Mosaic aims to complete maintenance at its assets in early 2025 and restore potash and phosphate production in line with historical levels following several disruptions to output in 2024. The producer forecasts its potash production to rise to a range of 8.7-9.1mn metric tonnes (t) in 2025, up from 8.7mn t in 2024. The company forecast phosphate production to rise to 7.4-7.6mn t in 2025 from 6.4mn t in 2024. The increased potash production will partly stem from the company's 400,000t Hydrofloat expansion at the Esterhazy mine in Canada's Saskatchewan province that Mosaic anticipates completing later this year. Mosaic also hopes to increase production following some maintenance work at its facilities, which will bring the company's capital expenditures for 2025 in line with 2024 levels at about $1.25bn. The producer has an ongoing turnaround at its sulfuric acid unit at its Bartow, Florida, phosphate processing plant that Mosaic expects to complete later this week. All sulfuric acid plants across Florida and Louisiana are back to doing turnarounds every three years, after the Covid-19 pandemic interrupted its maintenance schedule, the company said. The New Wales, Florida, plant brought forward some work at its phosphoric acid unit to address lingering reliability issues there that reduced output in 2024. The work at New Wales should increase Mosaic's production in the back half of the year, Mosaic said. Mosaic lost 700,000t of phosphate production and 250,000t of potash production in 2024 from operational and weather-related issues at its facilities, the company said. Back-to-back hurricanes impacting Florida in October contributed to the reduction in phosphate output. Electrical issues at the Esterhazy and Colonsay mines in Saskatchewan disrupted potash production in the third quarter. The company said it has recently operated both facilities at full capacity. Separately, Mosaic plans to finish the development of its 1mn t/yr blending plant in Palmeirante, Brazil, in 2025 as well. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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