Shell says shale assets on offer are overpriced
Shell "would have appetite for expanding" its shale portfolio through acquisitions but is yet to find attractive assets at a good price, chief financial officer Jessica Uhl said today.
"Most of the things we see tend to look overpriced, and we have tried to maintain cool heads," she said. "Our outlook for 2025 that we have articulated is an organic story", with the growth expectations for the shale business based on the portfolio that Shell already has, she said.
Shell plans to invest $3bn-4bn/yr on shale in 2021-25, including $2.5bn/yr of "sustaining" capital expenditure (capex). "But of course, if there are opportunities — we are very pleased with the delivery capability we have established with that part of our business — so we would have appetite for expanding, but it would have to sit within the financial framework," Uhl said.
Shell said it does not need to make a large acquisition on shale or other assets to meet its commitment to grow shareholder distributions.
The firm's strategy briefing today included the potential to distribute $125bn to shareholders in dividends and share buy-backs in 2021-25, which is half of Shell's current market capitalisation. "We can do all of that without major inorganic [investment]," chief executive Ben van Beurden said.
"But at the same time, if we do see opportunities, yes, of course, we will take a look at that," he said. "Would that be potentially in shales? Yes, if there is a great opportunity that will fit our strategy, absolutely. Could it be another part of the portfolio? Absolutely yes. Could be even in power. But only again if it makes sense," van Beurden said.
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Hurricane Beryl threat to US offshore oil lower
Hurricane Beryl threat to US offshore oil lower
Calgary, 5 July (Argus) — A northward shift in forecasts for Hurricane Beryl could bring the storm to the mid-Texas coast early next week, but its threat to US Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production appears limited. US Gulf oil and gas operators evacuated non-essential workers from some offshore facilities earlier in the week as a precaution. But on Thursday those concerns appeared to lessen, with BP saying the storm "... no longer poses a significant threat to our Gulf of Mexico assets". Beryl had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, according to a 5pm ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. The storm is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico by early Friday, bringing heavy rain, hurricane-force winds and storm surge. Beryl will likely weaken to tropical storm status as it passes over the Yucatan but regain hurricane status when it enters the Gulf of Mexico late Friday-early Saturday. Current forecasts have it turning northwest to make landfall again somewhere between the northeastern coast of Mexico and the mid-Texas coast on Sunday. The US Coast Guard changed the status of the port of Corpus Christi, Texas, -- a key US oil export hub -- to "whiskey" on Thursday, meaning gale force winds are expected to arrive at the port within 72 hours. The port remains open to all commercial traffic. Earlier in the week Beryl was a Category 5 storm, which made it the strongest on record for the month of July. It was a Category 4 storm on Wednesday with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it brushed past the southern coast of Jamaica. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Saudi Aramco cuts official August crude prices for Asia
Saudi Aramco cuts official August crude prices for Asia
London, 4 July (Argus) — Saudi Arabia's state-controlled Saudi Aramco has reduced the official formula prices of August-loading crude exports for buyers in its core Asia-Pacific market, while increasing prices for European customers. For customers in Asia-Pacific, Aramco has cut the August formula prices of its Arab Light and Extra Light grades by 60¢/bl compared with July and reduced the prices of its other grades by 20-70¢/bl. The price cuts for Asia-Pacific are within customers' expectations. Refiners in the region expected a narrower Dubai backwardation to prompt a reduction in Saudi formula prices . The month-on-month change in Dubai intermonth spreads is one factor that producers such as Aramco consider when setting the formula prices for their Asia-bound cargoes. For customers in northwest Europe, Aramco has raised the official August prices of its Extra Light, Arab Light, Arab Medium and Arab Heavy grades by 90¢/bl. For Mediterranean-bound exports of the same grades, it increased prices by 90¢/bl on a fob Ras Tanura basis and by 80¢/bl a fob Sidi Kerir basis. European refiners were anticipating an increase in Saudi formula prices on the back of firm values for rival crudes and tighter global supply. The North Sea's largest crude grade, Norway's medium sour Johan Sverdrup, averaged $1.60/bl above the North Sea Dated benchmark fob Mongstad in June, up from a $0.29/bl premium in May. Values of heavier grades in Europe have recently begun to improve. The Argus Brent Sour Index, which prices northwest Europe's heavier and sourer crudes, has averaged a 35¢/bl premium to Dated so far this week. The index averaged 10¢/bl above Dated in June and 7¢/bl below the benchmark in May. Aramco is expected to export less crude in the summer months when domestic demand peaks. Saudi Arabia announced in early June that it will extend a 1mn b/d "voluntary" additional crude output cut — first implemented in July 2023 — for three months until the end of September. For customers in the US, Aramco has lifted the August formula prices of Extra Light and Arab Light by 10¢/bl compared with July. It has left formula prices of the other grades unchanged. By Edmundo Alfaro and Lina Bulyk Saudi Aramco official formula prices $/bl August July ± United States (vs ASCI) Extra Light 7.10 7.00 0.10 Arab Light 4.85 4.75 0.10 Arab Medium 5.45 5.45 0.00 Arab Heavy 5.10 5.10 0.00 Northwest Europe (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.60 4.70 0.90 Arab Light 4.00 3.10 0.90 Arab Medium 3.20 2.30 0.90 Arab Heavy 0.80 -0.10 0.90 Asia-Pacific (vs Oman/Dubai) Super Light 2.75 2.95 -0.20 Extra Light 1.60 2.20 -0.60 Arab Light 1.80 2.40 -0.60 Arab Medium 1.25 1.95 -0.70 Arab Heavy 0.50 1.20 -0.70 Mediterranean fob Ras Tanura (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.60 4.70 0.90 Arab Light 3.90 3.00 0.90 Arab Medium 3.30 2.40 0.90 Arab Heavy 0.60 -0.30 0.90 Mediterranean fob Sidi Kerir (vs Ice Brent) Extra Light 5.65 4.85 0.80 Arab Light 3.95 3.15 0.80 Arab Medium 3.35 2.55 0.80 Arab Heavy 0.65 -0.15 0.80 Source: Saudi Aramco Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Q&A: RAG says EU lacks clear hydrogen storage rules
Q&A: RAG says EU lacks clear hydrogen storage rules
Brussels, 4 July (Argus) — RAG Energy Storage has been one of the front-runners in hydrogen storage, and established the first operational commercial underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in a depleted gas field in April 2023. Argus spoke to its managing director Georg Dorfleutner, who is calling for a clear framework. Are you OK with the EU apparently scaling back from 10mn t/yr of hydrogen imports? We base the modeling of the report for HeartforEurope more or less on 2030 projections from the RepowerEU strategy. The assumptions on our modelling to identify an investment gap for hydrogen storage were rather conservative — that the only demand would come from industry, thus a rather flat profile over the year without seasonal-shift needs yet. From our side we have multiple potential hydrogen storage projects throughout Europe, but the hydrogen market development and support regimes for infrastructure investments will define the timely realisation. How might any scaling back affect your report's projected 36 TWh H2 storage gap? Whatever happens infrastructure needs to be in place very soon. Our report really underlines the need for a clear framework for hydrogen storage. And we come with a toolbox of different possible measures to support this. Storage tariffs alone won't solve the issue of market ramp-up. Policymakers may feel relieved that the gas and hydrogen decarbonisation package was finished before the EU elections. But our report is more or less saying that this alone will not do the trick. Could a strict EU definition of low-carbon hydrogen hinder growth? The wider and more pragmatic the definitions of low-carbon hydrogen are, the easier market ramp-up will be. Market ramp-up is enormously important for infrastructure. You don't build infrastructure just for demand over the next two years but for the next 10-15 years. Do we need more tailored financial support for UHS, at EU and state levels? There's simply no tailored financial support right now. There's a little aid for hydrogen storage research projects. Currently, policy-making appears focused on whether or not hydrogen infrastructure has to be unbundled. As for financial support, we're completely out of the picture for now. And there's this idea that regulated tariffs make commercially viable projects. But that's not true. It's only booked capacity based on a cost-covering approach that delivers a financially viable project. You don't build infrastructure just to have nice infrastructure without customers. Do we need EU and member state UHS targets? We're not looking for a strict mandatory goal. But if there is a certain goal for hydrogen uptake in the market, then you should ensure that you have the necessary infrastructure in place. That said, targets may be helpful at state level in setting a framework for state aid. But we also have to recognise that Europe is very diversified. Some areas may have very well-functioning hydrogen supply while other landlocked countries might depend on longer supply chains, thus being more dependent on storage. Are markets ready for UHS? Firms are already approaching us. The market is willing, but they need to know what the costs are. The best way forward then is providing clear rules for storage and giving industry a clear pricing idea. There also need to be clear state support mechanisms until we get to cheaper hydrogen and sufficient infrastructure utilisation. In the process of creating UHS capacities we need to keep in mind the SOS for natural gas, which currently is crucial. That's why we focus on new sites — caverns, porous reservoirs and aquifers — rather than repurposing. But at some point, post-2030 with a market ramp-up, decisions on repurposing gas into hydrogen storage will need to be taken. Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US services contract in June, signal broad weakening
US services contract in June, signal broad weakening
Houston, 3 July (Argus) — Economic activity in the US services sector contracted in June by the most since 2020 while a report earlier this week showed contraction in manufacturing, signaling a broad-based slowdown in the economy as the second quarter came to an end. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) services purchasing managers index (PMI) registered 48.8 in June, down from 53.8 in May. Readings above 50 signal expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction for the services economy. The June services PMI "indicates the overall economy is contracting for the first time in 17 months," ISM said. "The decrease in the composite index in June is a result of notably lower business activity, a contraction in new orders for the second time since May 2020 and continued contraction in employment." The business activity/production index fell to 49.6 from 61.2. New orders fell by 6.8 points to 47.3. Employment fell by 1 point to 46.1. Monthly PMI reports can be volatile, but a services PMI above 49 over time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. "Survey respondents report that in general, business is flat or lower, and although inflation is easing, some commodities have significantly higher costs," ISM said. The prices index fell by 1.8 points to 56.3, showing slowing but robust price gains. ISM's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June from 48.7 in May, ISM reported on 1 July. It was the third consecutive month of contraction and marked a 19th month of contraction in the past 20 months. Wednesday's weaker than expected ISM report, together with a Wednesday report showing initial jobless claims last week rose to their highest in two years, slightly increase the odds that the Federal Reserve may lower its target rate later this year after maintaining it at 23-year highs since last year in an effort to stem inflation. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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