WTI crude falls near 4-year low on trade war: Update

Market: Crude oil
04/04/25

Adds end of day changes to stock markets, WTI, Treasuries

The US light sweet crude benchmark WTI fell by more than 7pc after China retaliated against the US' latest tariff action, while a selloff in global equity markets deepened.

May Nymex WTI fell by $4.96/bl to $61.99/bl, the lowest since 26 April 2021, and is down by $9.72/bl over the most recent two days.

Turmoil also continued for a second day in equity markets with the S&P 500 down by 6pc, the Nasdaq down by 5.8pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 5.5pc from the day prior, which saw similiar losses, wiping out nearly a year of gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Trillions of dollars in value were wiped out.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to end the day just above 4pc, its lowest since October, as Treasury prices rallied as investors sought safe haven in the dollar-denominated notes. Treasury yields and prices move counter to each other.

The equity selloff persisted on mounting fears of a recession after US president Donald Trump on 2 April imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of global trading partners for imports into the US. China hit back on Friday with a 34pc tariff of its own against the US from 10 April, driving away any hope by investors for a rebound after a selloff the day before.

WTI fell by as much as 9pc during Friday's session after China's retaliation, bottoming out at $60.45/bl.

The gloomy economic outlook overshadowed a strong job report that showed the US added a more-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March, showing hiring was picking up last month just as the new US administration began mass federal firings and announced tariffs on trading partners.

The IMF say tariffs represent a "significant risk" to the global outlook while US-based bank Goldman Sachs said Friday it has cut its oil demand growth estimate for this year to 600,000 b/d from 900,000 b/d, based on its economists' new view of economic growth.

Adding price pressure this week has also been the unexpected plans by eight Opec+ members to unwind production cuts faster, upping output in May by 411,000 b/d.

By Brett Holmes

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07/04/25

US producers look overseas as shale stalls

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Asian governments hold fire on tariff retaliation

07/04/25

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07/04/25

Asian governments hold fire on tariff retaliation

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Oil, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect: Update

07/04/25

News

07/04/25

Oil, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect: Update

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Oil futures, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect

07/04/25

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07/04/25

Oil futures, stock markets slump as tariffs take effect

Singapore, 7 April (Argus) — Oil futures and stock markets fell sharply again in early Asian trading on Monday, after the first tranche of US import tariffs came into force. Crude futures fell by more than 4pc after markets opened. US benchmark crude WTI futures fell below $60/bl to a new four-year low. Regional stock markets also dropped sharply. Markets in China — which were closed for a holiday at the end of last week — dropped by almost 10pc, while Japanese and South Korean exchanges fell by up to 6pc. US president Donald Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from all countries took effect on 5 April, with exemptions for some commodities . What Trump has described as "reciprocal" tariffs targeting some of the US' biggest trade partners are due to enter into force at 12:01 ET (04:01 GMT) on 9 April. Trump has given no indication that he will cancel or postpone the tariffs, despite the market turmoil in recent days, although he has held out prospects of negotiated reductions with some countries. The president denied on 6 April that he is crashing the markets deliberately. "But sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something," he told reporters. China announced its own 34pc tariffs on all US imports late on 4 April, adding to the pressure on financial markets. Beijing will continue to take "resolute measures" to protect its interests, state-owned media reported over the weekend. China is the only major US trading partner that has so far retaliated against the US tariffs. Several other countries in Asia have said they do not plan to retaliate or have asked Trump to delay the tariffs. Benchmark crude futures have now fallen by up to 18pc since Trump announced his tariffs. Crude oil came under additional pressure on 7 April after Saudi Arabia's state-controlled producer Saudi Aramco reduced its official formula prices for May-loading cargoes, including particularly sharp cuts for buyers in Asia. The front-month June Brent contract on Ice fell by 3.9pc to a low of $63.01/bl soon after trading opened in Asia on 7 April, before later recovering slightly to trade 2.8pc lower at 10:45am Singapore time (3:45am GMT). The Nymex front-month May crude contract fell to $59.38/bl, the lowest since April 2021, before narrowing its losses slightly. By Kevin Foster Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

04/04/25

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04/04/25

Tariffs and their impact larger than expected: Powell

New York, 4 April (Argus) — Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said today tariff increases unveiled by US president Donald Trump will be "significantly larger" than expected, as will the expected economic fallout. "The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth," Powell said today at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing's annual conference in Arlington, Virginia. The central bank will continue to carefully monitor incoming data to assess the outlook and the balance of risks, he said. "We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance," Powell added. "It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy." As of 1pm ET today, Fed funds futures markets are pricing in 29pc odds of a quarter point cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting in May and 99pc odds of at least a quarter point rate cut in June. Earlier in the day the June odds were at 100pc. The Fed chairman spoke after trillions of dollars in value were wiped off stock markets around the world and crude prices plummeted following Trump's rollout of across-the-board tariffs earlier in the week. Just before his appearance, Trump pressed Powell in a post on his social media platform to "STOP PLAYING POLITICS!" and cut interest rates without delay. A closely-watched government report showed the US added a greater-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March , showing hiring was picking up last month. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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