Cerradinho avalia desafios para etanol de milho

Market: Agriculture, Biofuels, Biomass
05/09/23

A empresa de bioenergia Cerradinho está investindo mais de R$1 bilhão para construir uma usina de etanol à base milho no Mato Grosso do Sul, solidificando sua presença no Centro-Oeste.

A Cerradinho está construindo a usina em Maracaju, no Mato Grosso do Sul, o terceiro maior estado produtor de grãos do Brasil, atrás de Mato Grosso e Paraná. O início das operações da primeira fase está programado para dezembro.

A nova planta tem capacidade para processar 608.000 t/ano de milho, o que equivale a uma moagem anual de 3,1 milhões de t em uma usina de cana-de-açúcar, segundo a Cerradinho. A empresa espera produzir 274.000 m³/ano de etanol na unidade, com o hidratado representando a maior parte desse total.

A unidade também processará 165.000 t/ano de grãos secos de destilaria (DDG, na sigla em inglês) e 11.000 t/ano de óleo de milho. A usina também gerará 52 GWh/ano de eletricidade e 135.000 CBIOs/ano.

A cidade de Maracaju é a maior produtora de milho do estado e tem condições favoráveis para aquisição de eucalipto para geração de energia, disse à Argus Renato Pretti, diretor-chefe de novos negócios e planejamento estratégico da Cerradinho, em uma conferência do setor esta semana.

Garantir biomassa é um desafio para a expansão do etanol de milho no Brasil, segundo ele. A maioria das usinas de etanol do país utiliza o bagaço – a biomassa do processo de moagem da cana-de-açúcar – para atender às necessidades energéticas de seus próprios processos de produção. As usinas brasileiras de etanol de milho, no entanto, dependem da queima de eucalipto ou de outros tipos de biomassa para alimentar suas operações.

O eucalipto, que também é cultivado na região Centro-Oeste, é uma fonte de rápido crescimento e geralmente está pronto para ser colhido cinco a seis anos após o plantio. Mas a aquisição de eucalipto ou outra biomassa para utilização como fonte de energia aumenta os custos e expõe os produtores às flutuações de outros mercados.

"Temos 100pc da nossa biomassa assegurada pelos próximos oito anos, plantando eucalipto e comprando biomassa", disse Pretti. "Essa foi uma estratégia que nós adotamos justamente para nos proteger".

Os preços da biomassa inflacionaram tanto no início deste ano, com o mercado de papel e celulose em alta, que alguns produtores de etanol de milho supostamente recorreram ao bagaço de cana para abastecer suas fábricas.

O cenário de oferta-demanda dos principais subprodutos do etanol de milho – DDGs e óleo de milho – também é fundamental para o sucesso desses projetos.

Pretti explicou que o DDG e o óleo de milho correspondem a aproximadamente 20pc da receita líquida total das usinas de milho, ajudando a cobrir 30-40pc dos custos com a matéria-prima principal. Para comparação, a energia elétrica tem no máximo 10pc da receita líquida no processamento de cana.

Quanto à comercialização de etanol, Pretti acredita que o aumento na oferta de Cerradinho será mais direcionado para os contratos de longo-prazo em detrimento do mercado spot. O aumento dos fluxos entre o Centro-Oeste e São Paulo, bem como os desafios logísticos, estão no radar da empresa.

Por ora, a empresa descarta qualquer investimento no mercado de combustível de aviação sustentável (SAF, na sigla em inglês).

Produção flex

A unidade de Maracaju será a primeira usina que produzirá exclusivamente etanol à base de milho da Cerradinho. A Cerradinho entrou pela primeira vez na crescente indústria de etanol de milho do Brasil em outubro de 2019, com uma usina flex no complexo de etanol de cana-de-açúcar da empresa em Chapadão do Céu, no interior do Goiás.

A empresa expandiu recentemente a produção de etanol de milho nessa unidade, elevando sua capacidade total de produção de etanol para 850.000 m³/ano.

Por Vinicius Damazio

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24/12/24

Viewpoint: Ethanol producers face higher costs in 2025

London, 24 December (Argus) — European ethanol producers may face rising output costs in 2025 as a poorer harvest season will push feedstock prices up, while other factors such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values could affect the price of finished products. Unfavourable weather conditions have led to a poor 2024-25 harvest, particularly for wheat. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. And rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This will likely weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. Nuts 2 It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values — the so called Nuts 2 values. To determine the GHG emissions from growing crops in the EU, the bloc's Renewable Energy Directive (RED) allows the use of typical units that represent the average GHG value in a specific area. On the back of the implementation of the recast of RED (RED II), the European Commission requested an update of the Nuts 2 GHG values. Member states have to prepare new crop reports to be assessed by the commission. But reports have been slow to emerge, while those that have been submitted face a lengthy review. Producers rely on GHG values to calculate the GHG savings of end-products, but default RED values currently in place are significantly lower than the typical GHG values from Nuts 2. While this is unlikely to have long-term effects beyond 2025, in the current context finding values that meet market participants' criteria has been difficult for some, which may support prices. Rising demand Demand for waste-based and ethanol with higher GHG savings should increase in 2025 as a result of policy changes, after lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets kept buying interest in check in 2024. Tickets are generated by companies supplying biofuels for transport. They are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet renewables mandates. The decline in prices for GHG tickets in Germany — the main demand centre for minimum 90pc GHG savings ethanol — weighed on ethanol consumption in 2024, squeezing the differential to product with lower GHG savings. The premium averaged around €17/m³ ($17.7/m³) from 1 January-1 December 2024, down from around €43/m³ during the same period in 2023. But an increase in Germany's GHG quota in 2025, coupled with Germany's decision to pause the use of GHG certificates carried forward from previous compliance years towards the 2025 and 2026 blending mandate, should increase physical blending and lift premiums for ethanol with high GHG savings, according to market participants. Meanwhile, the Netherlands' ministry of infrastructure and water management's plan to reduce the amount of Dutch tickets that obligated companies will be able to carry forward to 2025 to 10pc from 25pc may have little effect on Dutch double-counting ethanol premiums in 2025. Participants expect steady premiums, despite slightly higher overall blending targets. The Argus double-counting ethanol fob ARA premium to crop-based ethanol fob ARA averaged €193/m³ from 1 February-1 December 2024. Biomethanol slows Lower ticket prices in the UK have kept a lid on demand for alternative waste-based gasoline blendstock biomethanol. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price averaged $1,089/t from 1 Jauary-1 December, compared with $1,229/t during the same period of 2023. The European Commission's proposal to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels, if relying on gas that has been transported through grids outside the EU, continues to slow negotiations for 2025 imports of biomethanol of US origin into the EU. But demand for biomethanol and e-methanol could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector as shipowners seek to reduce emissions after the EU's FuelEU maritime regulation comes into effect. Shipping giant Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biomethanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

24/12/24

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24/12/24

Trump-Panama tiff highlights rising transit cost

New York, 23 December (Argus) — US president-elect Donald Trump's threat on Saturday to reclaim the Panama Canal for the US put a spotlight on rising costs this year and additional fees planned by the Panama Canal Authority (ACP) for 2025 in the ongoing fallout of a 2023 drought in Central America. Trump claimed that the US is the "number one user" of the Panama Canal, with "over 70pc of all transits heading to, or from, US ports" on 21 December. ACP data for ships destined for or departing from the US puts this percentage at 73pc in 2023 and 75.5pc in 2024 based on total tonnage of commodities moved through the canal. "This complete ‘rip-off' of our Country will immediately stop…" Trump said. The base transit tolls at the Panama Canal have been on the rise and are largely in line with those at the Suez Canal, but Panama Canal costs can be much higher for vessel operators that compete in auctions to enter the Central American passageway. 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In March 2024, the ACP published an update on transit slot assignments for vessels of war, auxiliary vessels and other "government-owned" vessels encouraging their operators to participate in the transit system rather than waiting for the ACP to assign them a slot. "Vessels of war, auxiliary vessels, and other government-owned vessels are encouraged to obtain a booking slot through the available booking mechanisms in order to have their transit date guaranteed and minimize the possibility of delays," the ACP said. The ACP points out that these vessels of war are entitled to "expeditious transits" based on the Treaty Concerning Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Canal and are technically not required to obtain a reservation to be considered for transit. Panama president Jose Raul Mulino on Sunday rejected Trump's threat to retake the canal , which has been under full control of the Central American country since 1999. 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Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol demand to remain strong

23/12/24

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23/12/24

Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol demand to remain strong

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Viewpoint: European HVO demand to rise in 2025

23/12/24

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23/12/24

Viewpoint: European HVO demand to rise in 2025

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Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

23/12/24

News

23/12/24

Viewpoint: US tax fight next year crucial for 45Z

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Biofuels support is a less likely target for repeal than other climate policies, energy lobbyists say. But Republicans have already requested input on 45Z, signaling openness to changes. Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, which enables them to avoid a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, to extend tax breaks that are scheduled to expire in 2025. "I want to place our industry in a place to make sure that the biofuels tax credit is part of reconciliation," said Kailee Tkacz Buller, president of the National Oilseed Processors Association. But lawmakers "could punt the biofuels discussion if stakeholders aren't aligned." A decade ago, biofuel policy was a simple tug-of-war between the oil and agriculture industries. Now many refiners formerly critical of the Renewable Fuel Standard produce ethanol and advanced biofuels themselves. And the increasingly diverse biofuels industry could complicate efforts to present a united front to Congress. Farm groups worry about carbon intensity scoring hurting crop demand and have lobbied to curtail record-high feedstock imports, to the chagrin of some biorefineries. Those producers are no monolith either: Biodiesel plants often rely more on local vegetable oils, while ethanol producers insist on keeping incentives that do not discriminate by fuel type and some oil majors would back subsidizing fuels co-processed with petroleum. Add airlines into the picture, which want greater incentives for aviation fuels, and marketers frustrated by 45Z shifting subsidies away from blenders — and the threat of fractious negotiations next year becomes clear. There are options for potential compromise, according to an Argus analysis of comments submitted privately to Republicans in the House of Representatives, as well as interviews with energy lobbyists and tax experts. The industry, frustrated by the Biden administration's delays in clarifying 45Z's rules, might welcome legislative changes that limit regulatory discretion regardless of what agency guidance eventually says. And lobbyists have floated various ways to appease agriculture groups without kneecapping biorefineries reliant on imports, including adding domestic content bonuses, imposing stricter requirements for Chinese-origin used cooking oil, and giving preference to close trading partners. Granted, unanimity among lobbyists is hardly a priority for Republican tax-writers. Reaching any consensus in the restive caucus, with just a handful of votes to spare in the House, will be difficult enough. "These types of bills always come to down to what's the most you can do before you start losing enough votes to pass it," said Jeff Navin, cofounder of the clean energy advocacy firm Boundary Stone Partners and a former House and Senate staffer. "Because they can only lose a couple of votes, there's not much more beyond that." And the caucus's goal of cutting spending makes an industry-wide goal — extending the 45Z credit into the 2030s — even more challenging. "It is a hard sell to get the extension right away," said Paul Winters, director of public affairs at Clean Fuels Alliance America. Climate costs Cost concerns also make less likely a simple return to the long-running blenders credit, which offered $1/USG across the board to biomass-based diesel. The US Joint Committee on Taxation in 2022 scored the two-year blenders extension at $5.5bn, while pegging three years of 45Z at less than $3bn. An inconvenient reality for Republicans skeptical of climate change is that 45Z's throttling of subsidies based on carbon intensity makes it more budget-friendly. Lawmakers have other reasons to not ignore emissions. Policies elsewhere, including California's low-carbon fuel standard and Europe's alternative jet fuel mandates, increasingly prioritize sustainability. The US deviating from that focus federally could leave producers with contradictory incentives, making it harder to turn a profit. And companies that have already sunk funds into reducing emissions — such as ethanol producers with heavy investments in carbon capture — want their reward. Incentives with bipartisan buy-in are likely more durable over the long run too. Next time Democrats control Washington, liberals may be more willing to scrap a credit they see as padding the profits of agribusiness — but less so if they see it as helping the US decarbonize. By Cole Martin Tax credit changes 40A Blenders Tax Credit 45Z Producers Tax Credit $1/USG Up to $1/USG for road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for aviation fuels depending on carbon intensity For domestic fuel blenders For domestic fuel producers Imported fuel eligible Imported fuel not eligible Exclusively for biomass-based diesel Fuels that produce no more than 50kg CO2e/mmBTU are eligible Feedstock-agnostic Carbon intensity scoring incentivizes waste over crop feedstocks Co-processed fuels ineligible Co-processed fuels ineligible Administratively simple Requires federal guidance on how to calculate carbon intensities for different feedstocks and fuel pathways Expiring after 2024 Lasts from 2025 through 2027 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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