Viewpoint: Biodiesel output relies on HOBO as RINs fall

Market: Biofuels, Oil products
01/08/18

The US biodiesel industry is relying on stronger production margins to maintain output as the value of renewable credits hovers near three-year lows.

Biodiesel production levels reached 16.31mn bl in the first five months of 2018, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is about 21pc higher than the same period in 2017. The increase in output comes after Argentina and Indonesia were slapped with antidumping duties by the US in August 2017.

Producers have mainly benefited from a wider heating oil/soybean oil (HOBO) spread, which has reached levels not seen since 2014. The HOBO spread hit a high of +7¢/USG on 26 July, up 52¢/USG from -45¢/USG at the beginning of 2018. Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) prices are at four-year highs as crude prices remain supported by Opec countries' reduced output. Soybean oil prices are at levels not seen since late 2015 amid the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China.

Yet the release of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) 2019 renewable volume obligations (RVO) did not account for small refinery hardship waivers granted to 29 refineries. The agency has estimated there is a total of 3.06bn carryover RINs, about 15pc of the total 2019 RVO and 840mn RINs more than what was anticipated when the 2018 RVO levels were set. The waivers have put intense pressure on the value of biomass-based diesel D4 RINs, which has curbed incentives for increasing biodiesel blending. Under the proposed 2019 RVO, blending obligations will increase 3.1pc to 19.88bn USG, but that has not been enough to limit losses on RIN values.

Following the EPA's proposal, the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the EIA lowered the agency's forecasted biodiesel production for 2018 by 6,000 b/d to average 131,000 b/d. The forecast for 2019 output was lowered by 5,000 b/d to an estimated 144,000 b/d.

Blending economics could see a significant boost in profitability with the reinstatement of the blenders' tax credit (BTC). Industry trade groups have joined forces recently to concentrate lobbying efforts on congressional leaders for an extension to the BTC, which was retroactively established for 2017 but not 2018.

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News

02/12/24

Mexico central bank flags 2025 growth uncertainty

Mexico City, 2 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank (Banxico) maintained its base-case 2025 GDP growth estimate at 1.2pc, with a range of 0.4pc to 2pc, citing heightened global uncertainty fueled by geopolitical conflicts and potential shifts in international economic policies. Central bank governor Victoria Rodriguez last week addressed US president-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25pc tariffs on Mexican goods, urging caution until the trade situation clarifies. Mexican president Claudia Shienbaum initially responded with a firm stance, saying Mexico could apply counter-tariffs. Later, Sheinbaum and Trump had a "friendly" phone call to discuss issues surrounding the proposed 25pc tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports, Sheinbaum said. Banxico raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.8pc from 1.5pc in its previous quarterly report in August, driven by stronger-than-expected third-quarter performance. Still, Banxico noted that the additional growth is driven by increased spending on imported goods rather than domestic production, particularly in investment and private consumption. Inflation dynamics remain mixed. While headline inflation rose to an annualized 4.76pc in October, core inflation eased to 3.58pc, its lowest level since mid-2020. Rodriguez emphasized progress on inflation despite external uncertainties, signaling room for further monetary easing. Banxico cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 10.25pc on 14 November and is widely expected to lower it again to 10pc at its 19 December meeting. Projections from Mexican finance executives institution (IMEF) suggest the rate could drop to 8.25pc by the end of 2025. Banxico also revised its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.7pc from 4.4pc in the August report but expects inflation to return to its 2–4pc target range by early 2025, with a 3pc rate projected by the fourth quarter. Other adjustments include a downgraded forecast for formal job creation in 2024 and 2025, with the range estimate for full-year job creation in 2024 dropping to 250,000–350,000 from 410,000-550,000 in August. The 2025 estimate came down to 340,000–540,000 from 430,000–630,000.The 2025 trade deficit outlook was also tightened to $14.9bn–$22.1bn, compared to a previous range of $13.7bn–$23.7bn. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more

News

Lower prices support German fuel demand

02/12/24

News

02/12/24

Lower prices support German fuel demand

Hamburg, 2 December (Argus) — German demand for heating oil, diesel and E5 gasoline increased in the week to 29 November, supported by a fall in domestic prices. The switch to winter grades and low stocks further boosted fuel demand. Middle distillates traded at lower prices nationwide last week, with heating oil and diesel prices falling by around €0.60/100 litres compared with the previous week. The drop was in line with a decline in the value of Ice gasoil futures, which came under pressure from the prospect of US tariffs against Canada, China and Mexico indicated by president-elect Donald Trump. Oversupply from refineries in the south and west of Germany put further downward pressure on domestic prices last week. Suppliers offered heating oil, diesel and gasoline from Bayernoil's 215,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg complex, Miro's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery and Shell's 334,000 b/d Rhineland complex at lower prices than surrounding loading locations in order to fulfil their contractual offtake volumes by the end of the month. The switch to winter grades supported German fuel demand last week. Consumers ordered smaller quantities of diesel in recent weeks as they waited for the switch to winter specification grades before replenishing their stocks. Since the switch, traded diesel spot volumes reported to Argus have steadily risen. An anticipated €10/t rise in Germany's CO2 tax next year will likely lead to increased stockpiling of product from mid-December, according to traders. End-consumer tank levels for diesel were at just 52pc at the end of last week. The extent to which the increase in the CO2 tax will put pressure on diesel imports depends on whether German refineries can maintain current high throughput levels. For the time being, imports into Germany via the country's northern ports or along the Rhine are not feasible because of the comparatively low domestic prices. By Johannes Guhlke Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25

02/12/24

News

02/12/24

India’s base oil imports rise in 1H FY24-25

Singapore, 2 December (Argus) — India's base oil imports rose by 33pc on the year to 1.54mn t in the first half of the country's 2024-25 fiscal year, between April and September, data from GTT show. Blenders likely imported more cargoes owing to a decrease in domestic base oil production caused by plant issues and maintenances. This happened despite a slowdown in India's economic growth. The country's GDP is estimated to have grown by 6pc in April-September, compared with 8.2pc in the same period in the previous year, government data show. Vehicle sales in the country reached 1.31mn units between April and September, a 12.5pc increase from the previous year, according to data from the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (Siam). This likely boosted demand for finished lubricant. Base oil imports in September rose for the second consecutive month to 236,427t, as demand increased towards the end of the monsoon season. South Korea continued to be the top supplier to India, with imports reaching 115,487t in September, an 81pc increase from the previous year. By Chng Li Li India base oils imports t Sep'24 m-o-m ± % y-o-y ± % Apr-Sep FY24/25 y-o-y ± % South Korea 115,487 29.9 80.7 648,412 63.4 Singapore 33,356 -4.8 -31.0 215,775 35.2 Spain 22,896 177.6 201.3 80,309 71.0 Saudi Arabia 20,917 21.6 82.1 120,738 11.2 Qatar 11,047 594.3 1,235.8 78,950 41.3 Total 236,427 11.8 22.1 1,537,599 33.2 Source: GTT Total includes all countries, not just those listed Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Hapag-Lloyd buys bio, e-methanol from China's Goldwind

29/11/24

News

29/11/24

Hapag-Lloyd buys bio, e-methanol from China's Goldwind

London, 29 November (Argus) — Germany-based containership owner Hapag-Lloyd has struck a long-term deal to buy 250,000 t/yr of blended biomethanol and e-methanol from Chinese wind turbine maker and project developer Goldwind. The deal lasts for more than 10 years and is legally binding, Hapag-Lloyd told Argus . Goldwind will supply Hapag-Lloyd with a smaller volume initially in 2026 and ramp up to 250,000 t/yr in late 2027. Hapag-Lloyd expects the initial volumes to largely fulfil demand from the five dual-fuel methanol ships it will operate from 2026, it said. Goldwind earlier this year started building a 500,000 t/yr plant in Hinggan League, northeast China. The so-called "hybrid" plants will make biomethanol and e-methanol, and Goldwind plans to add a second 500,000 t/yr plant in 2027, the shipowner said. Hapag-Lloyd's deal is for volume from the second plant, it added. The ratio of e-methanol in the deal is 30pc but could be raised to 50pc in the plant's lifetime, Hapag-Lloyd said. The fuel ensures greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions of at least 70pc to comply with current sustainability certification requirements, Hapag-Lloyd said. This is likely to refer to the FuelEU Maritime definition of low-carbon fuels as cutting GHG emissions by 70pc compared with fossil benchmarks. Goldwind previously struck a deal to supply 500,000 t/yr of the sustainable methanol mix to Danish shipping and logistics firm Maersk from 2026. While methanol appears to be gaining momentum, shipowners are pursuing a range of fuels for future fleets. Hapag-Lloyd last month ordered 24 dual-fuelled LNG containerships for a combined $4bn. By Aidan Lea Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application

28/11/24

News

28/11/24

Sweden extends EU ETS 2 application

London, 28 November (Argus) — The European Commission has approved the application of the new emissions trading system for road transport and buildings (EU ETS 2) to additional sectors in Sweden. Sweden will unilaterally apply the new system to emissions from freight and passenger railway transport, non-commercial leisure boats, airport and harbour off-road machinery, and fuel combustion in agriculture, forestry and fishing. The extension means additional carbon allowances will be issued to the country in 2027, on the basis of emissions from the activities listed calculated at 1.68mn t of CO2 equivalent. Sweden must monitor and report emissions from the additional sectors from 1 January. The EU ETS 2 is due to launch fully in 2027, and will apply in its basic form to fuel combustion in buildings, road transport and small industry not covered by the existing EU ETS, in all the bloc's member states plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The commission approved similar unilateral extensions of the system's scope in the Netherlands and Austria in September. By Victoria Hatherick Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more