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Parallel government emerging in Venezuela: Update

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 11/01/19

Adds bondholders' statement.

A parallel opposition government is emerging in the wake of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro´s disputed re-inauguration yesterday in Caracas.

Juan Guaidó, who was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, declared at a public rally today that he is assuming the executive powers of the presidency based on three articles of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution.

Today´s development compounds pressure on western oil companies that have oil and gas assets and operations in Venezuela. The Opec country´s oil production has plummeted over the past year, but the state-owned industry is seen as a central component of a future reconstruction campaign.

Venezuela's many jilted creditors are hoping that a transitional government will implement a comprehensive debt restructuring. In a statement issued today, New York-based bonderholders´committee said it considers the assembly to be "the only legitimately elected body in Venezuela and wishes to underscore its position that, consistent with OFAC sanctions, it will not negotiate with the current regime," adding that it plans to keep channels of communication open with "all non-sanctioned stakeholders" in anticipation of a restructuring and economic reform program "under a domestically and internationally legitimate government."

Maduro´s re-inauguration to a second six-year term was condemned as illegitimate by over 50 countries including the US, Canada, EU, the Lima Group and the Organization of American States (OAS). The ceremony officiated by the government-controlled Supreme Court, rather than the National Assembly as instructed by the constitution, triggered more targeted international sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, on top of US financial sanctions imposed in August 2017.

"I invoke Articles 233, 333 and 350 of the constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to call immediate free elections, and for the unity of the people, armed forces and international community to end the usurpation" of Maduro, Guaidó declared at the rally of hundreds of Venezuelans held outside the UN office in Caracas today.

Article 233 says the head of the assembly will assume the presidency until new elections are held whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate.

The assembly already has declared Maduro's second government to be illegitimate, but likely will issue more resolutions to that effect before a scheduled 23 January march aimed at forcing Maduro out of office. The evocative date recalls the 1958 ouster of Venezuela´s former dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.

Article 333 says the constitution is valid and prevails even when it is ignored or revoked unconstitutionally.

A legislative aide to Guaidó said his declared assumption of executive powers is intended to block any attempt by the government-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) and Supreme Court to replace the 1999 constitution with a new charter and dissolve the assembly before its constitutional term ends in 2021.

Article 350 says the people of Venezuela will disavow and reject any government contrary to Venezuela's democratic values and principles.

The opposition is hoping the march will compel Maduro to peacefully resign and transfer power to the assembly until new elections are held in a 30-day period.

Guaidó emerged from relative obscurity in recent weeks, the latest in a long line of opposition figures, many of whom are behind bars or in exile. Guaidó is younger and is seen as less encumbered politically than his predecessors.

The military´s stance will be critical to determining the fate of this latest effort to dislodge Maduro. Guaidó called on the armed forces to support the people's march and urged Venezuelans to take the streets to reclaim their democracy.

Venezuela´s top military brass holds senior positions in the Maduro government and has been loyal to him since he came to power in 2013, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. But rank and file troops suffer the same deprivations of food, medicine and basic services as ordinary Venezuelans do.

Guaidó's announcement could spark another violent government crackdown on the long-divided opposition.

There was no immediate response from the presidential palace to Guaidó's announcement.

Constituent assembly president Diosdado Cabello, part of Maduro´s inner circle, has threatened physical harm against Maduro's opponents, warning last week that anyone who tries to force Maduro from power will be treated as "an enemy invader and traitor."

A senior member of the Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party tells Argus that Guaidó is aware of the "life-threatening" risks of his initiative, but said it was his "only option".

"Keeping silent and not invoking the constitution's authority to strip Maduro of his executive powers would have been a surrender to the dictatorial status quo and would have buried any chance of restoring democracy for years to come."


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25/03/25

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Energy security tops Rubio's Caribbean visit agenda

Houston, 25 March (Argus) — Energy security is the "big opportunity holistically" of US secretary of state Marco Rubio's planned visit this week to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, US special envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said. The island nations that are net importers of crude and other energy products have a chance to "turn the page" to improve energy security and reduce prices, the envoy said today in a state department briefing to press. The trip comes after the US said this week it would impose a 25pc discretionary tariff on imports from countries that buy Venezuelan crude. Several nations in the past received crude from their South American neighbor through its PetroCaribe aid program which is largely defunct, other than shipments to Cuba. Trinidad has also sought to develop cross-border natural gas fields with Venezuela to boost its flagging production, but the US announcement further complicates this plan. "Along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we're deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize ... those natural gas opportunities," Claver-Carone said. Booming oil producer Guyana in turn has faced a border dispute with Venezuela, and the US hopes to discuss "binding security cooperation" to solve this problem during Rubio's visit. Along with Guyana's neighbor Suriname, which hopes to launch offshore crude production by 2028, the outlook for the region to increase energy production could end its "huge Achilles' heel to its economic development and security," Claver-Carone added. Rubio will also discuss security, including improving conditions in Haiti, illegal migration and arms and drug trafficking during his visits on Wednesday and Thursday. By Carla Bass Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Low snowpack could support Italian summer gas burn

London, 25 March (Argus) — Low snowpack and hydro reserves in Italy may increase demand for gas-fired plants this summer, in turn driving up power-sector gas burn on days when renewable output is weakest. Italian thermal-fired plants — mostly gas fired — accounted for 51pc of the country's generation mix in the summers of 2020-24, while run-of-river installations, pumped-storage plants and hydroelectric dams accounted for 19pc and solar, wind and other sources provided 31pc. Italian power-sector gas demand averaged 61.5mn m³/d. Italian gas-fired plants compete directly against programmable hydroelectric dams for both the day-ahead and ancillary power markets, so if overall electricity demand this summer remains steady on the year, gas-fired plants stand to gain a greater share of the generation mix than in years when hydro output was stronger. Unseasonably hot weather driving unusually high use of electric-powered air conditioning this summer would further increase scope for Italy's gas-fired plants to run. The estimated water content of snow on Italian mountains as of 8 March — the latest available data — was the lowest for that date since at least 2011 and was almost 57pc below the 2011-23 average for that time of year, according to Italian meteorological association Cima. Snowpack last year also dipped below the 2011-23 average in January-March before late-season precipitation pushed levels back above median levels in April-July. At the same time, water reserves at Italian hydroelectric dams have been well below historical averages this year. Reserves equal to 2.08TWh of power generation as of 17 March — the latest available data — were the third lowest for that date since 2015 and a full 10pc below the 10-year average for that time of year. Looking ahead, following months of predominantly dry weather punctuated by occasional bouts of heavy showers, long-term weather forecasts this week predicted slightly above-average rainfall over the rest of March and throughout April in Milan, around which much of the country's hydro capacity is located. And during that time, at least some rain was forecast to fall on all but one day, which would provide a far steadier influx of water into rivers. That said, Italian renewable generation capacity — particularly solar — is poised to continue rising in the coming months, likely boosting output from those technologies on the year in April-September and restricting demand for dispatchable gas-fired and hydroelectric dams alike. Total Italian PV solar capacity of 37.9GW at the start of March was 20pc higher on the year, suggesting potential for a proportional increase in generation of that type in April-September compared with summer 2024. Italian PV solar panels and on-site renewable installations at homes and businesses, the vast majority of which are solar-based, generated an average of 8GW each day in summer 2024, covering 26pc of all generation nationwide. By Ilenia Reale and Jeff Kuntz Gas and hydro output, hydro reserves GW, TWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Dangote to hit full operating capacity in Apr: Source

London, 25 March (Argus) — Nigeria's independently-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery is commissioning its alkylation unit, which will enable it to run its crude distillation unit (CDU) at operating capacity "some time next month", according to a source with knowledge of the matter. The source said CDU capacity is 550,000 b/d currently, although vessel tracking data suggest it is running some way below that. Crude arrivals at the refinery to date in March have fallen to between 175,000-235,000 b/d, according to preliminary data from vessel trackers Kpler and Vortexa, from 405,000 b/d in February . Throughput hit a high of 433,000 b/d in December, according to Kpler. The alkylation line, which produces high octane alkylate for gasoline blending, is the last of Dangote's secondary units to come online. Argus Consulting puts it at a nameplate capacity of 27,000 b/d. Other secondary units could be utilised at their maximum capacity once the alkylation unit is up and running, which would give a boost to gasoline blending component production. Recent lower runs at Dangote could suggest decreased output of gasoline — a key product in the local refined product market. Nigerian gasoline and blending component imports are around 345,000t to date this month, up from 245,000t in all of February. Gasoline imports in the wider west African market will be around 450,000t in April, a European gasoline trader told Argus this week. Nigeria accounts for around three quarters of the region's imports. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo


25/03/25
News
25/03/25

Nigeria expands crude supply with medium sweet Obodo

London, 25 March (Argus) — A new Nigerian crude grade, medium sweet Obodo, will hit the market in April, according to sources familiar with the matter, as the west African country steadily adds to its crude offering. Obodo has a gravity of 27.65°API and a sulphur content of 0.05pc, according to an assay seen by Argus . A source said the grade is likely to be priced in line with Nigerian medium sweet Bonga. Details on production levels were not immediately available. Nigerian independent Continental Oil & Gas will produce Obodo from onshore oil block OML 150 in the Niger delta region, and state-owned NNPC will market the crude, according to two sources. NUPRC data shows Continental Oil has a stake in OML 150 under a production sharing contract — typically between the government and a private company. The newest Nigerian crude will add to a growing supply of medium sweet grades in the country. NNPC restarted production of similar-quality Utapate in 2024, which followed the launch of Nembe in 2023. Nigerian medium sweets, including Forcados, Escravos and Bonga, have predominantly found an outlet in Europe — the largest market for Nigerian crude. Obodo could also find favour with European refineries, where seasonal maintenance is scheduled to wind down by the end of April and early May. Nigerian grades have faced tepid demand in the April-trade cycle as ample availability of lower-priced alternatives such as US WTI, Caspian CPC Blend and other Mediterranean grades enticed European buyers. The trade cycle has since shifted to May, with as many as 15 April-loading Nigerian cargoes still looking for buyers, according to market participants. Nigeria's upstream regulator NUPRC in March outlined a plan to add 1.07mn b/d to the country's liquids output by December 2026. The plan forecasts an injection of capital into Nigerian oil blocks through joint ventures, production-sharing contracts and sole risk contracts. Nigeria has struggled to mobilise upstream investment and has consistently fallen short of less ambitious production growth targets in recent years. The country's crude production fell by 4.5pc on the month to 1.47mn b/d in February, according to NUPRC — just under its Opec+ quota of 1.5mn b/d. By Sanjana Shivdas and George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US venue case crucial for future clean air fights


24/03/25
News
24/03/25

US venue case crucial for future clean air fights

New York, 24 March (Argus) — The US Supreme Court on Tuesday will hear arguments about the proper court venue for Clean Air Act lawsuits, which could be pivotal for future enforcement of federal air pollution rules. The court is considering both a case involving the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) rejections of small refiners' requests for hardship exemptions from a biofuel blend mandate and the agency's separate denials of state plans for addressing ozone-forming NOx emissions. Judges are not expected to decide the legality of EPA's decisions, just the proper courts for settling the disputes. But the cases are still significant: legal uncertainty to date has affected both EPA programs implicated by the Supreme Court's review and could upend enforcement of future rules if the court does not provide sufficient clarity. Federal ozone season NOx allowance prices essentially flatlined last year as participants were hesitant to trade due to risks from so many court cases. And small refinery exemptions are crucial for biofuel demand, so biofuel producers are wary of empowering more lower courts to reconsider denied exemption requests. The Clean Air Act says that EPA actions that are "nationally applicable" or otherwise based on "nationwide scope or effect" should proceed before the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, while "locally or regionally applicable" actions head to regional circuit courts instead. But judges have disagreed about how to apply those criteria, since many EPA rules have far-reaching effects but on their face target individual states or facilities. Regulated industry fears that EPA could say a broad set of regulations have nationwide scope, centralizing review in the DC Circuit, which is seen as friendlier to federal regulators and where a majority of judges are Democratic appointees. Local conditions — such as a small refinery in Indiana serving local farmers that cannot handle higher biodiesel blends — get short-changed when various companies' concerns are assembled together, they argue. But EPA under the prior administration and Democratic-led states argue that sending these cases to the DC Circuit, which is more experienced with the complexities of federal rulemaking, makes more sense than letting industry seek out favorable jurisdictions. And they highlight the possibility of courts leaving emitters in one part of the country with laxer rules. "The fundamental risk is that you'll end up with decisions on the same point of law coming out differently in different places — and not an expedient way to resolve that," said Brian Bunger, a Holland & Knight partner and the former chief counsel at the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. For instance, both the DC Circuit and the conservative-leaning 5th Circuit agreed that EPA erred when it denied some refiners exemptions from biofuel blend mandates — but they said so for slightly distinct reasons. The 5th Circuit, for instance, went further by saying refiners reasonably relied on past EPA practice and thus the agency incorporating new analysis into its review of waiver requests was unfair. As a result, EPA recently used different criteria when weighing a waiver request from one refiner in the 5th Circuit's jurisdiction than it used for another refiner, according to partially redacted decisions obtained by Argus through a Freedom of Information Act request. The agency said it could not consider at all whether CVR Energy's 75,000 b/d refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, is able to pass on the costs of program compliance to consumers because of the 5th Circuit decision but could weigh such information when deciding a similar petition from Calumet's 15,000 b/d refinery in Great Falls, Montana. The agency issued those decisions in the waning days of former-president Joe Biden's term. While President Donald Trump has pledged a vastly different approach to environmental regulation, his administration for now has not signaled a different stance than the Biden administration on whether these types of disputes should proceed before the DC Circuit. Schrodinger's case It is still unclear whether the judges view the cases as a tricky technical dispute or part of a broader trend of federal agencies overstepping their authority. Tuesday's hearing could provide clues. Of the court's nine justices, four previously served on the DC Circuit and could see value in sending more complex regulatory cases to the expert court, Bunger said. But the court's conservative majority could also be wary of giving EPA too much authority to set venue. Refiners argue that the agency repackaged dozens of individual exemption denials into two larger regulatory actions as a strategy to get the cases before a friendlier court. The Supreme Court has looked skeptically at other EPA rulings and last year overturned a decades-old legal principle that gave agencies leeway when interpreting ambiguous laws. Final Supreme Court decisions usually arrive by late June. However the court rules, businesses say that it should provide a clear enough explanation to prevent similar venue disputes from reemerging. The US Chamber of Commerce told the court it takes no position beyond urging the court to "adopt an interpretation that provides clarity and predictability to all stakeholders." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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