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Parallel govt emerging in Venezuela: Update 2

  • Market: Crude oil, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 11/01/19

Adds Brazil's recognition of assembly authority.

A parallel opposition government is emerging in the wake of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro´s disputed re-inauguration yesterday in Caracas.

Juan Guaidó, who was elected president of the opposition-controlled National Assembly on 5 January, declared at a public rally today that he is assuming the executive powers of the presidency based on three articles of Venezuela´s 1999 constitution.

Brazil appears to have become the first nation to recognize the assembly's executive authority. After Maduro refused to step down, "Brazil reiterates its full support for the National Assembly, a democratically elected constitutional institution, at present responsible for the executive power in Venezuela, according to the country's legitimate Supreme Court," Brazil's foreign ministry said in a statement this afternoon.

Today´s development compounds pressure on western oil companies that have oil and gas assets and operations in Venezuela. The Opec country´s oil production has plummeted over the past year, but the state-owned industry is seen as a central component of a future reconstruction campaign.

Venezuela's many jilted creditors are hoping that a transitional government will implement a comprehensive debt restructuring. In a statement issued today, New York-based bonderholders´committee said it considers the assembly to be "the only legitimately elected body in Venezuela and wishes to underscore its position that, consistent with OFAC sanctions, it will not negotiate with the current regime," adding that it plans to keep channels of communication open with "all non-sanctioned stakeholders" in anticipation of a restructuring and economic reform program "under a domestically and internationally legitimate government."

Maduro´s re-inauguration to a second six-year term was condemned as illegitimate by over 50 countries including the US, Canada, EU, the Lima Group and the Organization of American States (OAS). The ceremony officiated by the government-controlled Supreme Court, rather than the National Assembly as instructed by the constitution, triggered more targeted international sanctions on senior Venezuelan officials, on top of US financial sanctions imposed in August 2017.

"I invoke Articles 233, 333 and 350 of the constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to call immediate free elections, and for the unity of the people, armed forces and international community to end the usurpation" of Maduro, Guaidó declared at the rally of hundreds of Venezuelans held outside the UN office in Caracas today.

Article 233 says the head of the assembly will assume the presidency until new elections are held whenever the sitting president is incapacitated, abandons the presidency or the popular will revokes his mandate.

The assembly already has declared Maduro's second government to be illegitimate, but likely will issue more resolutions to that effect before a scheduled 23 January march aimed at forcing Maduro out of office. The evocative date recalls the 1958 ouster of Venezuela´s former dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez.

Article 333 says the constitution is valid and prevails even when it is ignored or revoked unconstitutionally.

A legislative aide to Guaidó said his declared assumption of executive powers is intended to block any attempt by the government-controlled National Constituent Assembly (ANC) and Supreme Court to replace the 1999 constitution with a new charter and dissolve the assembly before its constitutional term ends in 2021.

Article 350 says the people of Venezuela will disavow and reject any government contrary to Venezuela's democratic values and principles.

The opposition is hoping the march will compel Maduro to peacefully resign and transfer power to the assembly until new elections are held in a 30-day period.

Guaidó emerged from relative obscurity in recent weeks, the latest in a long line of opposition figures, many of whom are behind bars or in exile. Guaidó is younger and is seen as less encumbered politically than his predecessors.

The military´s stance will be critical to determining the fate of this latest effort to dislodge Maduro. Guaidó called on the armed forces to support the people's march and urged Venezuelans to take the streets to reclaim their democracy.

Venezuela´s top military brass holds senior positions in the Maduro government and has been loyal to him since he came to power in 2013, following the death of former president Hugo Chavez. But rank and file troops suffer the same deprivations of food, medicine and basic services as ordinary Venezuelans do.

Guaidó's announcement could spark another violent government crackdown on the long-divided opposition.

There was no immediate response from the presidential palace to Guaidó's announcement.

Constituent assembly president Diosdado Cabello, part of Maduro´s inner circle, has threatened physical harm against Maduro's opponents, warning last week that anyone who tries to force Maduro from power will be treated as "an enemy invader and traitor."

A senior member of the Voluntad Popular (Popular Will) party tells Argus that Guaidó is aware of the "life-threatening" risks of his initiative, but said it was his "only option".

"Keeping silent and not invoking the constitution's authority to strip Maduro of his executive powers would have been a surrender to the dictatorial status quo and would have buried any chance of restoring democracy for years to come."


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08/10/24

Hurricane Milton set for late Wednesday landfall

Hurricane Milton set for late Wednesday landfall

New York, 8 October (Argus) — Hurricane Milton is expected to come ashore on Florida's Gulf coast near Tampa Bay late Wednesday, bringing life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds that have already spurred widespread evacuation orders. US president Joe Biden warned Milton could be one of the worst storms to hit Florida in 100 years, as he urged residents under evacuation orders to act without delay. "It's a matter of life and death," he said today. The storm was located about 520 miles southwest of Tampa at 2pm ET today, with maximum sustained winds of 155mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Storm surge is expected to range from 10-15 feet along the Florida coast from north of Tampa to Englewood. The fall-out for offshore oil and gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico appears limited given the forecast track takes Milton far south of most platforms. Mexican state oil company Pemex said its ports in the Gulf of Mexico stopped operations over the last 24 hours as Milton passed north of the Yucatan Peninsula, but the company did not report on the status of offshore production. Milton is expected to pick up speed as it turns toward the northeast later today, with the center forecast to move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. Landfall is expected on Wednesday night before Milton sweeps across central Florida. "While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida," the center said. Florida officials are dispatching previously stockpiled fuel to retail stations throughout the state as hundreds of thousands of residents flee the western coast. Ports and terminals on Florida's Gulf coast from Tampa to Fort Myers Beach closed at 8am ET today as a precaution. Chevron previously evacuated and shut in its Blind Faith oil and gas production platform in the Gulf of Mexico. The 65,000 b/d platform is located around 160 miles southeast of New Orleans. Crude production from Blind Faith feeds into South Louisiana Intermediate crude slate, which is not actively traded in the spot market but is typically priced using Heavy Louisiana Sweet. Shell, BP and ExxonMobil all said there has been no impact to their drilling or production in the Gulf of Mexico, although the companies continue to monitor the hurricane. By Stephen Cunningham Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Buckeye shutting Tampa terminals as storm approaches


08/10/24
News
08/10/24

Buckeye shutting Tampa terminals as storm approaches

Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Pipeline company Buckeye Partners is shutting its Tampa, Florida, fuel terminals today as Hurricane Milton approaches the state's west coast. Buckeye's Tampa North and Tampa South terminals have over 1mn bl of gasoline, ultra low sulfur diesel, ultra low sulfur heating oil and ethanol storage capacity with truck, marine and pipeline access. The Buckeye terminals — alongside Citgo and Kinder Morgan terminals in Tampa — are shutting today in anticipation of the storm slated to make landfall late Wednesday, the company said today. Florida governor Ron DeSantis warned earlier today of the likelihood of significant damage to the port of Tampa that will affect fuel supply in the state after Milton passes through. "Buckeye will work to safely restore operations as soon as possible," the company said. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Florida retail gasoline supplies tighten ahead of storm


08/10/24
News
08/10/24

Florida retail gasoline supplies tighten ahead of storm

Houston, 8 October (Argus) — Florida officials are dispatching previously stockpiled fuel to retail stations throughout the state as hundreds of thousands of residents flee the western coast ahead of Hurricane Milton. Florida had more than 110,000 USG of gasoline and 268,000 USG of diesel on hand ahead of the storm and another 1.2mn USG of both en route to the state, governor Ron DeSantis (R) said today. The state has been dispatching those reserves to gas stations that have run out of fuel as residents evacuate coastal areas ahead of Milton, which is expected to come ashore late Wednesday near Tampa as a major storm. The Florida Highway Patrol late Monday escorted 27 fuel trucks to fuel stations in the anticipated path of Milton, and the state is working with fuel sellers Racetrac, Wawa, Shell and Walmart to maintain supplies, DeSantis said. Panic buying in southwest Florida led some gas stations to run out of fuel as early as Monday, according to a wholesaler operating in the region. Florida is the third largest US state by both population and gasoline demand, consuming about 600,000 b/d in 2022, according the US Energy Information Administration. The stockpiles and additional supply en route DeSantis outlined would be equal to about about 31,000 bls, or 5pc of daily demand. Despite the need to dispatch the fuel DeSantis insists "there is no fuel shortage … fuel continues to arrive in the state of Florida," but lines at gas stations are long and demand is depleting reserves faster than normal. Florida has no refineries and imports all its gasoline, diesel and jet fuel by truck and ship, meaning it can face significant disruption if ports and roadways are closed by a storm. Florida's fuels infrastructure was quick to recover last year in the aftermath of category 3 Hurricane Idalia, but this year's storm looks set to bring greater damage. Bigger fuel issues ahead for Tampa "We are assuming … that there is going to be significant damage to the port of Tampa," affecting the port's ability to receive fuel shipments after Milton passes through, DeSantis said today. Ports on Florida's Gulf coast from Tampa to Fort Myers Beach closed at 8am ET today ahead of the expected landfall. Kinder Morgan is planning to shut its terminals and fuel racks in Tampa today. Kinder's Tampa refined products terminal has 1.8mn bls of storage and is connected to the Central Florida Pipeline (CFPL) which transports gasoline, diesel, ethanol and jet fuel to Orlando, including to Orlando International Airport. The airport said today that it will cease operations the morning of 9 October. Citgo is also shutting down its Tampa fuels terminal, the company said early today. The terminal imports waterborne ultra low sulfur diesel and gasoline. ExxonMobil said it is closely monitoring the situation and its Ft Lauderdale terminal on the Atlantic coast side of the state and south of the expected hurricane landfall zone is operating as normal. Hillsborough County issued a mandatory evacuation order Monday for coastal residents along Tampa Bay. Much of Pinellas County on the western side of the Tampa Bay is also under a mandatory evacuation order. By Nathan Risser Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Asia LNG premium to Europe falls to six-month low


08/10/24
News
08/10/24

Asia LNG premium to Europe falls to six-month low

London, 8 October (Argus) — The premium offered by northeast Asian delivered LNG markets over those in northwest Europe for prompt Atlantic loadings has this week slipped to its smallest since early May, as very low winter charter rates force European firms to bid higher compared to Asian buyers in order to secure cargoes. The Argus Northeast Asia (ANEA) des price for December offered just a 39¢/mn Btu premium to the northwest Europe November des price on 7 October. The spread dropped to 33¢/mn Btu on 4 October — the smallest since 2 May — having been as much as $2.36/mn Btu on 19 September ( see ANEA premium graph ). At least four LNG carriers loaded from US liquefaction terminals have diverted away from heading to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope to Europe instead over the last week, judging by shiptracking data from Kpler, likely stemming from the narrowing premium offered by Asian markets compared to Europe. The inter-basin spread has tightened since mid-September largely because a rally in European delivered markets has not been matched by Asia. The northwest Europe November des price increased by $1.85/mn Btu over 19 September-7 October, largely as a result of extensions to Norwegian pipeline maintenance, incremental downward revisions in minimum temperature forecasts, and geopolitical concerns surrounding conflict in the Middle East. The corresponding ANEA price, on the other hand, was little changed over the same period, as warmer weather than the seasonal average curbed early heating gas demand. Prompt shipping rates holding lower on the year has also forced European buyers to bid higher in order to compete with their Asian counterparts and ensure uncommitted Atlantic cargoes head for Europe. The prompt Argus Round Voyage rate (ARV2) for tri-fuel diesel-electric (TFDE) carriers in the Atlantic basin stood at $40,000/d today, compared to $130,000/d a year earlier ( see ARV2 spot charter graph ), with some firms even viewing additional shipping capacity as a sunk cost given the number of available vessels at present and difficulties subletting spare shipping capacity. The quick delivery of newbuild LNG carriers this year, coupled with the lack of floating storage in Europe, has contributed to a very shallow contango in forward freight prices. Forward winter rates for two-stroke vessels delivering US LNG to northwest Europe (ARV5) peak at $81,000/d in December, having been revised lower from over $100,000/d at the start of September ( see ARV2 winter rates graph ). Weak charter rates mean European buyers will likely continue to have to bid higher relative Asian bids over the winter than in previous winters, when the freight market was tighter, particularly in instances of cold snaps or other events which would tighten the global LNG balance. Europe's demand for LNG was consistently lower on the year over the second and third quarter of 2024, as Asian demand held the inter-basin arbitrage for US LNG mostly open. But imports to Europe are likely to step higher in the fourth quarter, with the arbitrage firmly shut. Minimum temperatures across the northwest — where much of the region's heating demand emanates from — are forecast to hold below the seasonal average from mid-October onwards, which may spur gas consumption. And the EU's underground gas storages are less full than a year earlier. Aggregate gas stocks stood at 1,083TWh on 1 October 2024, marginally lower than last year's 1091TWh, though both are above the EU-mandated 90pc target. A lack of floating storage this year could limit deliveries later in the year however, with European receipts over the period in the past two years supported by the unwinding of floating storage, mainly in November and December, boosting supply as colder weather boosts heating demand. By Cerys Edwards ARV2 spot charter costs 2022-2024 ARV2 winter rates assessed over Jan-Sept 2024 ANEA premium to NWE August-October Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range


08/10/24
News
08/10/24

Dutch TTF gas rises through coal-to-gas switching range

London, 8 October (Argus) — A rally in recent weeks has pushed gas prices up to a range at which even older coal-fired power stations would be more profitable to run than some of the most efficient gas-fired power stations. European gas benchmark price the Dutch TTF front-month has risen strongly over the past two weeks, having closed at €40.57/MWh on 7 October, up from a recent low of €32.80/MWh on 19 September. The higher gas prices have outstripped similar price increases of other energy-related commodities such as coal, with the TTF front-month contract approaching the top of the gas-to-coal fuel-switching range ( see TTF front-month graph ). In assessments on 3 and 4 October, even older coal-fired power stations with an efficiency of 42pc would would be more profitable to run than the newest gas-fired turbines with an efficiency of 60pc, for the first time since early December last year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have contributed to gas' price increase. But with muted LNG deliveries to the continent so far this shoulder season and colder weather than last year, European gas storage sites are less full than they were a year earlier. European stocks were filled to about 94.5pc of capacity on the morning of 7 October, according to GIE transparency platform data, down from 96.7pc a year earlier. Demand has already stepped up strongly in some countries, pushing the continent to some days of net withdrawals from storage earlier in the autumn than in most recent years. While coal prices have also stepped up slightly in turn, partly in reaction to the expectations of higher coal burn, their slower upwards momentum has brought coal largely ahead of gas in the merit order. Many coal trading firms have banked on a strong coal burn this winter, with low trading activity in the shoulder season so far, which incentivises trading companies to keep coal prices close to the fuel-switching level, market participants have told Argus . And prompt prices for European CO2 emissions allowances in September and October so far have been about 20pc lower on the year, closing at an average of €64.24/t, compared with €81.60/t over the same period in 2023. Lower emissions prices benefit higher coal burn as coal is more CO2-intensive than gas, requiring operators to purchase and surrender more CO2 emissions certificates. A similar price movement happened last autumn, when a rally in early October pushed the TTF front-month price to the top of the fuel-switching range. But from early December, when a mild winter reduced the remaining risks for gas security of supply, prices fell through the fuel-switching ranges sharply , to the bottom of the range. Impact probably highest in Germany Germany is one of the last remaining markets with large numbers of both coal- and gas-fired power stations in Europe, leaving the market able to react to price movements in either market more flexibly. The power sector can still provide considerable demand-side flexibility in the German gas market, while coal phase-out plans in the rest of Europe mean the scope for alternating between the thermal generation fuels has narrowed. Gas prices can provide the signal that the market has spare gas for the power sector to burn by falling into coal-to-gas switching territory, while gas prices climb above the fuel-switching range to discourage gas-fired generation when the gas market is tighter. Last winter, gas prices at the very bottom of the fuel-switching range encouraged the highest gas-fired generation in Germany in at least a decade , according to data from European system operators' association Entso-E. While many German coal and gas-fired plants are combined-heat-and-power plants, which do not respond to price incentives as flexibly as pure power plants, the impact of the fuel switch on gas' share in the thermal generation mix was still visible last winter in Germany. In October and November, with prices at the top of the range, gas-fired generation at 6GW met 55pc of the combined call on coal and gas. But when prices dropped through the switching range, gas' share increased to 63pc in December-March, with about 7.3GW of gas-fired generation ( see generation percentage graph ). In addition, the German storage levy of €2.50/MWh, which power producers must pay, pushes gas prices up further in the fuel-switching range. The levy, which is likely to rise further from next year , thus further decreases gas' profitability compared with coal, which could be detrimental for Germany's own coal phase-out plans. By Till Stehr TTF front-month vs fuel-switching range €/MWh German gas- and coal-fired generation and fuel-switching price pc, €/MWh Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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