Analysis: China struggles to hit 2020 gas demand target
China's gas demand growth is likely to slow this year, raising doubts over whether the country will meet its consumption and production targets for 2020.
Government think-tank the Development Research Centre of the State Council (DRC) expects Chinese gas consumption to rise by around 30bn m³ or 10pc to 310bn m³ in 2019. This would be a significant slowdown from 17.5pc growth in 2018, when demand hit 280bn m³.
The government in 2014 set a gas consumption target of 360bn m³ by 2020, as part of plans to increase the share of the fuel in the country's energy mix to 10pc by that year from 6pc in 2014. A 10pc increase in gas consumption this year would then require demand to increase by around 16pc next year to hit Beijing's target.
But insufficient gas supplies to meet demand and slower economic growth, together with faster-than-expected declines in the cost of renewable fuels that have weakened the economics of gas use, are posing challenges for any increase in consumption growth.
China's domestic upstream development slowed during 2014-16 because of declining oil prices. Production growth eased to 7.7pc in 2014 from 9.4pc a year earlier, and then weakened further to 3.4pc and 1.7pc in the following two years.
Domestic gas production growth then rebounded to 8.2pc in 2017 and 8.3pc in 2018, taking output to 160.3bn m³. Beijing last year set a production target of 200bn m³ by 2020, which would require 12pc/yr growth.
But output is not rising quickly enough to meet this target. Production in the first seven months of this year rose by just 9.7pc to 100.3bn m³, an annualised rate of 172bn m³.
Challenges of shale
China has 50 trillion m³ of recoverable gas reserves, mainly in the Sichuan, Erdos and Tarim basins. Shale gas reserves of 22 trillion m³, much of which is more than 4,500m deep, account for 44pc of the total, data from the natural resources ministry show.
The reserve/production ratio remains high, because low oil prices and a lack of technological expertise threaten to hinder development.
China's biggest producer state-controlled PetroChina expects the country's shale gas production to hit 35bn m³ by 2025, which would account for around 17pc of projected total gas production in that year. This would require output to more than triple from 10.9bn m³ in 2018, when shale made up just 6.8pc of total Chinese production.
Fellow state-controlled producer Sinopec has forecast that China's total domestic gas output may rise by 32pc to 208bn m³ by 2025 from 157.5bn m³ in 2018.
China's push for a switch from coal to gas use in rural households since 2017 has been a major driver of gas consumption, but also led to severe shortages and a surge in prices of the fuel during the 2017 winter.
And outages at Central Asian producers that supply piped gas to China have strained supplies over the past two years, limiting consumption and highlighting the need for diversification of supply.
The government has eased its coal-to-gas drive this year, by relaxing its ban on coal use to ensure it has stable, sufficient and affordable energy supplies.
Import reliance
Sinopec and PetroChina expect imports to play a comparatively larger role in meeting gas demand than domestic production, given limits on upstream expansions.
Sinopec expects China's gas imports to surge by 92pc to 172mn t (238bn m³) by 2025 from 90mn t or 124bn m³ in 2018, far outpacing the 32pc growth in domestic production over the same period.
China's gas imports rose by 10.8pc to 54.74mn t or 75.5bn m³ in the first seven months of this year, faster than the 9.7pc increase in domestic production to the equivalent of 72.68mn t.
Limits to growth
Beijing is planning to set new targets late next year for its economic and energy development in 2025. The country's economic slowdown, and strong competition from renewables, may put downward pressure on gas consumption in the period.
China's economic growth slowed to a 30-year low of 6.2pc in the second quarter, down from a full-year 2018 increase of 6.6pc. And worsening trade relations with the US have forced economists to lower China's growth rate to below 6pc in 2020.
The impact of slowing growth has been felt in the industrial sector, where gas is used as a feedstock in many industries. China's industrial output grew by just 4.8pc in July, the slowest monthly increase in 17 years. Industrial output increased by 6pc in both July 2018 and the first half of this year. Industrial users account for around 34pc of China's total gas consumption, according to PetroChina.
Wind and solar have taken the lead in new energy installations in China for the last two years, taking total installed capacity for wind and solar turbines to 330GW by July this year — around 18pc of China's total power capacity. Installed capacity for gas accounts for 89GW, or around 5pc of total power capacity.
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Greek regulator approves 2025 gas tariff increases
Greek regulator approves 2025 gas tariff increases
London, 29 August (Argus) — Greek energy regulator RAEWW has approved 2025 gas transmission tariffs previously proposed by transmission system operator Desfa, with some alterations. The annual tariff for entry to the Greek grid is set at roughly €0.35/MWh for 2025, around 4pc higher than in 2024 (see data & download) . Exit tariffs at domestic and international points will be €0.59/MWh, a nearly 21pc increase on the year, while the LNG regasification tariff is set at €0.30/MWh, nearly 35pc higher than in 2024. Before annual capacity auctions in July, Desfa had proposed some differentiation in entry and exit tariffs for different interconnection points, but RAEWW has instead opted for equalising entry and exit fees regardless of the point. Multipliers for shorter-term capacities are set at around 1.38 for quarterly products, 1.48 for monthly products and 2.97 for daily products. These are the same multipliers which have been used for the past two years. RAEWW set the allowed revenue for transmission services at €149.2mn. A much larger portion of the allowed revenue will come from exit points, at around €90.5mn compared with €58.7mn at entry points. The regulator set an allowed revenue of €23.6mn for LNG services. It noted the Revithoussa LNG terminal has consistently exceeded its allowances since 2019, peaking at 312pc in 2023 as use of the terminal soared. RAEWW has also opened a public consultation on proposed changes to the rulebook of Greece's Henex exchange, which would create a new "trading-only" type of participant. The new category of participant does not need to be a registered user of the transmission system, but must have concluded a contract with exclusively one other participant who is registered, and guarantee that it will fulfil its obligations arising from any concluded trades. If the registered system user loses its registered status, then the trading-only participant also does. Any termination of contract between the two parties must immediately be reported to Henex. Interested parties can email responses to the consultation to RAEWW until 20 September. By Brendan A'Hearn Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
UK plans new environmental guidance for oil and gas
London, 29 August (Argus) — The UK government will develop new environmental guidance for oil and gas firms, in the light of a recent Supreme Court decision that ruled consent for an oil development was unlawful, as the scope 3 emissions — those from burning the oil produced — were not considered. The ruling means that "end use emissions from the burning of extracted hydrocarbons need to be assessed", the government said today. The government will consult on the new guidance and aims to conclude the process "by spring 2025", it said today. It will in the meantime halt and defer the assessment of any environmental statements related to oil and gas extraction and storage activities until the new guidance is in place, including statements that are already being assessed. The Supreme Court in June ruled that Surrey County Council's decision to permit an oil development was "unlawful because the end use atmospheric emissions from burning the extracted oil were not assessed as part of the environmental impact assessment". The government also confirmed that it will not challenge judicial reviews brought against the development consent granted to the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields in the North Sea. A judicial review in the UK is a challenge to the way in which a decision has been made by a public body, focusing on the procedures followed rather than the conclusion reached. Environmental campaign groups Greenpeace and Uplift launched legal challenges in December seeking a judicial review of the government's decision to permit Rosebank. Norway's state-owned Equinor and London-listed Ithaca hold 80pc and 20pc of Rosebank, respectively. Greenpeace in July 2022 separately filed a legal challenge against the permitting of Shell's Jackdaw field. "This litigation does not mean the licences for Jackdaw and Rosebank have been withdrawn", the government said. The Labour government, voted into office in July , pledged not to issue any new oil, gas or coal licences, but also promised not to revoke existing ones. Equinor is "currently assessing the implications of today's announcement and will maintain close collaboration with all relevant stakeholders to advance the project. Rosebank is a vital project for the UK and is bringing benefits in terms of investment, job creation and energy security", the company told Argus today. North Sea oil and gas production "will be a key component of the UK energy landscape for decades to come", the government said today. Argus has also contacted Shell for comment. The UK government introduced a climate compatibility checkpoint in September 2022, designed to ensure that oil and gas licensing fits UK climate goals. The UK has a legally-binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. The checkpoint, though, does not take into account scope 3 emissions. These typically make up between 80pc and 95pc of total oil and gas company emissions. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
Greece expects 70pc fall in gas demand by 2050
London, 28 August (Argus) — Greek gas demand will fall by nearly 70pc by 2050 as increasing renewable power installations displace gas in the power generation mix, according to Greece's revised National Climate and Energy Plan (NECP) put out for consultation last week. Gas consumption falls to 44.1TWh in 2030 and then to 16.2TWh by 2050 from 51.2TWh in 2022, under projections in the NECP. This will be driven by renewables displacing gas in the power mix, the replacement of gas units for heating in residential and industrial contexts through electrification, and a rise in the production of biogas and biomethane. Specifically for industry, the NECP assumes that gas demand will gradually decline to just 900GWh by 2050 from 6.6TWh in 2022, while in the commercial and public sector it will drop to 200GWh ( see gas table ). The NECP assumes a "dramatic increase in the electrification of building heating" through heat pumps, taking into account the ban on the sale of new oil and gas boilers from 2025, new EU laws on energy efficiency requirements in buildings, and the inclusion of building emissions in the EU emissions trading system. The power sector accounts for the majority of Greek gas demand. The NECP assumes that gas-fired power generation will decline to 10.4TWh by 2030 and 4.8TWh by 2050, far below 19.1TWh in 2022. Gas is displaced by solar and wind, with renewables contributing 96pc of domestic power generation by the middle of the century ( see power table ). But the NECP still foresees installed gas-fired capacity remaining high later into the decade, reaching a peak installed capacity of 7.9GW in 2030 before falling back to 6.4GW in 2050, slightly above 6.3GW in 2022. The government expects Greece to become a net power exporter already in 2035, having been a net importer of 3.5TWh in 2022. Gas-fired plants will remain "essential to ensure, in all cases, the stability and security of supply of the electricity system throughout the energy transition period", the NECP says. The plan foresees the need for a national compensation mechanism for gas-fired plants, particularly given the likely expansion of energy storage such as batteries further displacing gas from the power mix in 2030-40. Even some oil plants will potentially need to remain in cold reserve in case of emergency, mostly to ensure supply to some of the Greek islands. And while the plan projects a nearly 70pc drop in gas demand by 2050, it still envisages the expansion of the national transmission system, mostly to facilitate Greece becoming "the main energy hub of the wider region". The plan lists seven main gas interconnector projects that are of "national, regional and international interest", including the doubling of the Trans-Adriatic pipeline's capacity to 10bn m³/yr, an expansion of the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria's capacity to 5bn m³/yr, and the implementation of the Dioriga Gas LNG terminal, among others. If transmission system operator Desfa's expansion plans are fully carried out, transit capacity will increase to 8.5bn m³/yr by 2026 from 3.1bn m³/yr at present. However, these plans could be endangered "if the declared intention to fully decouple the EU from Russian gas is not implemented and if regional needs continue to be met mainly by Russian gas channelled through Turkey". To avoid significant increases in Greek transmission tariffs, "only the absolutely necessary investments in the expansion of gas infrastructure" are promoted, according to the plan. The NECP supports the development of small-scale LNG, enabled through the truck-loading services at Revithoussa and the under-construction bunkering jetty there. Small-scale LNG can displace oil in remote locations not connected to the gas grid, and is also important in decarbonising shipping and heavy land transport, the plan says. Annual biomethane production rises to 2.1TWh by 2030 and 4.6TWh in 2050 from zero at present under the plan. About 80 biogas plants currently produce 1.4 TWh/yr of biogas, and 38 of these adjacent to gas networks could be converted "relatively quickly" to biomethane production of about 900 GWh/yr. The remaining 1.2 TWh/yr targeted by 2030 will come from new plants. The NECP also aims to cut Greece's dependence on imports through the development of domestic gas production, if it proves to be commercially viable. Greece has awarded nine onshore and offshore exploration licences, and in April 2022 declared these projects to have national priority. In the past two years, "investigations have been accelerated" and drilling decisions are expected in the next two years. If final investment decisions are taken, new domestic production could come on line before the end of the decade. Preliminary estimates put potential and probable reserves in Greece at about 680bn m³, which if exploited would make Greece an exporter already by 2030, according to the NECP. More domestic production increases revenues for the Greek state, which can partly be used to implement the energy transition, the government said. By Brendan A'Hearn Projected annual power production by source TWh/yr 2022 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Lignite 5.8 4.5 - - - - - Natural gas 19.1 12.2 10.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.8 Oil 5.1 1.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 - - Biomass and biogas 0.1 0.5 0.4 - - - - Solar 7.1 12.5 20.3 27.0 37.1 43.8 49.2 Onshore wind 10.9 15.8 20.7 21.9 25.5 30.3 30.2 Offshore wind - - 0.6 14.7 21.7 30.6 43.6 Hydro 3.9 5.8 6.4 7.4 7.7 8.6 9.1 Net imports 3.5 3.2 1.8 -3.7 -6.7 -11.1 -6.6 — Greek NECP Industrial and residential/commercial gas demand TWh/yr 2022 2030 2035 2040 2050 Industrial gas demand 6.6 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.9 Residential/commercial gas demand 1.3 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.2 — Greek NECP Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
US, Italy, Germany miss goal to cut fossil fuel finance
Edinburgh, 28 August (Argus) — Countries including the US, Italy and Germany continued to finance international fossil fuel projects last year despite committing to stop doing so by the end of 2022, according to a report by think-tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and civil society organisation Oil Change International. A total of 39 countries and development banks, including the US, Canada, Germany, the UK, France and Italy, promised to end international public finance for unabated fossil fuels by the end of 2022. The Glasgow pledge — the Clean Energy Transition Partnership (CETP) — signed on the sidelines of the UN Cop 26 climate talks has exemptions for "limited and clearly defined circumstances consistent with a 1.5°C warming limit and the goals of the Paris Agreement". The report found that the US invested $3.2bn in 10 overseas projects last year and its export-import bank approved $500mn for 300 oil and gas well in Bahrain. The US is "currently considering at least five fossil fuel megaprojects that are all steeped in controversy, including gas projects in Guyana, Papua New Guinea and Mozambique", the report said. The organisations said Switzerland approved five fossil fuel projects abroad last year for a total of $1.4bn, Italy and Germany approved $1bn each and Italy's export credit agency SACE provided $4.3bn for petrochemical projects. Italy's policy contains "numerous wide-ranging loopholes" that essentially allow SACE "to continue its fossil finance virtually unhindered", the organisations said. The report also pointed out that the Netherlands committed $321mn to an oil and gas project in Brazil's Santos basin. Environmental organisations had warned last year that energy security concerns would mean some countries including the US, Germany and Italy would miss the pledge made in Glasgow . But fossil fuel finance is decreasing even among signatories with policies that do not match the ambition of the CETP, according to the report. "A year after the deadline, most CETP signatories — including Canada, the UK, France and the European Investment Bank — have met their promise," IISD and Oil Change said. And the commitments have shifted billions away from fossil fuel investments towards clean energy. The report found that signatories have collectively reduced their international public finance for fossil fuel projects by around $10bn-15bn from a 2019-21 average to around $5.2bn in 2023. International investment in clean energy rose by 16pc in the same period to $21.3bn. "Signatories particularly need to adopt ambitious and quantitative targets for rapidly scaling up finance for clean energy, commit to a high standard for the quality of this financing, as well as prioritise financing for key enabling energy sub-sectors and for the countries that need it most," the organisations said. The report found that the largest recipients of the pledge signatories' finance were upper and upper-middle income countries rather than low-income nations. The top three recipients of the signatories' international public finance for clean energy last year were Spain, Germany and Poland, they said. By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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