Latest market news

Marine fuel global weekly market update

  • Market: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 11/07/23

A weekly Argus news digest of interest to the conventional and alternative marine fuel markets. To speak to our team about accessing the stories below and access to Argus Marine Fuels, please contact marinefuels@argusmedia.com.

Alternative marine fuels

7 July IMO sets 2050 net zero target in revised GHG strategy The International Maritime Organisation adopted a revised greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions strategy today at the 80th meeting of its Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) in London.

7 July IMO revised GHG strategy gets mixed reactions The International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) adoption of its revised greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy today has received mixed reactions from industry and nation states.

7 July Q&A: HVO blend in Swedish diesel could drop below 1pc The Swedish government proposed to cut the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction quota mandate for gasoline and diesel to 6pc for 2024-26, from the previously legislated 30pc for diesel and 7.8pc for gasoline in 2024. This could see the share of HVO blended in the country's diesel pool fall below 1pc by volume, Swedish Bioenergy Association's (Svebio) program director and biofuel expert Tomas Ekbom told Argus.

7 July Taiwan's WHL sets elevated GHG shipping emissions goals Taiwan-based container shipping company Wan Hai Lines' (WHL) has set itself greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets for 2030 and 2050 above that currently mandated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).

7 July LNG Canada expansion faces electrification hurdle LNG Canada is weighing whether to move forward with expansion of its liquified natural gas (LNG) export facility in British Columbia, with electricity access a key obstacle.

7 July UK government faces new legal challenge on emissions Three environmental organisations have filed a request for a judicial review of the UK government's revised net zero strategy, which was released at the end of March.

6 July Elbehafen LNG undergoes brief maintenance after storm Germany's 2.7mn t/yr Elbehafen LNG terminal was set to undergo "several hours" of works today, as high winds damaged some of the terminal's equipment, state-owned terminal operator Deutsche Energy Terminal said today.

6 July IMO GHG outcome still unclear ahead closing plenary The International Maritime Organisation's (IMO) greenhouse gas (GHG) strategy is due to be adopted tomorrow, but progress made towards tougher targets and potential economic measures such as carbon levies remains unclear.

6 July Biofuel Express to sell Neste's HVO in Denmark Scandinavian biofuel distributer Biofuel Express will sell Neste's hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), called ‘My Renewable Diesel', in Denmark, according to an agreement between the two companies.

6 July Japan's Mitsui buys into Danish renewable energy firm Japanese trading firm Mitsui has acquired a stake in Danish Kasso MidCo, an affiliate of Danish renewable energy firm European Energy.

6 July BP invests in WasteFuels global biomethanol network BP has committed to invest $10mn in Californian sustainable fuels company WasteFuel to develop a global network of biomethanol plants.

7 July Taiwan's WHL sets elevated GHG shipping emissions goals Taiwan-based container shipping company Wan Hai Lines' (WHL) has set itself greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets for 2030 and 2050 above that currently mandated by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO).

6 July Japan's Mitsui buys into Danish renewable energy firm Japanese trading firm Mitsui has acquired a stake in Danish Kasso MidCo, an affiliate of Danish renewable energy firm European Energy.

5 July Kairos LNG bunker vessel grounded near Amsterdam The 7,500m³ Kairos LNG bunker vessel was grounded earlier today near Amsterdam in the Netherlands and has since returned to port, German shipping operator Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM) confirmed.

5 July Orsted reach agreement for second methanol-powered SOV Danish energy company Orsted has reached an agreement with vessel operator Esvagt for the supply of a second methanol-powered service operational vessel (SOV), following the development of the world's first methanol-powered SOV by the same collaboration last year.

5 July Volvo to use biodiesel based fuel for ocean freight Swedish carmaker Volvo, in conjunction with freight companies Maersk, Kuehne and Nagel and DB Schenker, will receive material for the production of its cars from container ships using renewable biodiesel-based fuel.

5 July Shipper ONE more than halves CO2 emissions Japanese container shipping company Ocean Network Express (ONE) cut its CO2 emissions by 58.5pc to 9.39mn metric tonnes (t) in 2022 from a 2008 baseline, through lower fuel consumption, operational improvements, and the use of biofuel.

5 July Marathon files permit to up Detroit refinery rates US independent refiner Marathon Petroleum has filed for a permit to operate its 140,000 b/d Detroit, Michigan, refinery at higher utilization rates than are currently allowed under air pollution requirements.

5 July CNOOC's Ningbo supplies LNG bunker vessel Chinese state-controlled CNOOC's 6mn t/yr Ningbo LNG terminal filled an LNG bunkering vessel to operate in China's Ningbo-Zhoushan port on 11 June, the firm said.

4 July Dutch HBE bookings down on significant 2022 carry over Dutch oil companies booked 1.63mn of 2023 renewable fuel units (HBE) into the Energy for Transport Register (REV) by 1 July, down by around 61pc compared with the same time last year. But the number of HBEs carried over from the previous compliance year was 58pc higher than a year earlier.

4 July Marine fuel output location key for GHG: South Korea South Korea highlighted during International Maritime Organisation (IMO) discussions the need to consider the location of future alternative marine fuel production sites carefully in order to hit greenhouse gas (GHG) targets given that many states are reliant on imports.

3 July Mabanaft acquires Oiltanking Copenhagen terminal Integrated trading company Mabanaft has agreed to buy tank storage provider Oiltanking's liquid storage Copenhagen terminal, and is looking to provide additional capacity for low carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), advanced biofuels and hydrogen.

3 July Divisions continue to delay IMO GHG strategy The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) began the 80th meeting of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 80) in London today, with member states deeply divided on emissions.

3 July South Korea's HSHI receives order for LNG carrier pair South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries (HSHI) has received an order for two LNG carriers.

3 July Ammonia specialist Amogy develops Singapore operations US-based ammonia fuel cell specialist Amogy will begin operations in Singapore, as the company expands its strategic focus on Asian markets.

Conventional marine fuels

7 July Brazil's gasoline, diesel imports rise in June Heated demand for gasoline in the domestic market drove the increase in Brazil's motor fuel imports in June.

7 July Mexico ups regular gasoline, diesel tax offsets Mexico's finance ministry this week increased the deduction on the excise tax (IEPS) for regular gasoline and diesel despite declines in US retail prices.

7 July Japan's Mizushima refinery halts operations after fire Japanese refiner Eneos has halted refining operations at its 150,000 b/d in its Mizushima-A refinery because of a fire that broke out on 5 July.

6 July Drought in Argentina hinders VLSFO demand Argentina very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) sales for the first quarter declined by 12pc because of continuous drought conditions that have curbed bunker demand.

6 July Greek finished diesel exports running out of road Greece may struggle to maintain its customary level of diesel exports to its Mediterranean neighbours unless it can find an alternative feedstock to semi-processed Russian gasoil.

6 July China's CNOOC completes first LNG bunkering reload Chinese state-controlled CNOOC hasreloaded and delivered LNG to a customer for the first time using its 30,000m³ LNG bunkering carrier Hai Yang Shi You 301.

6 July Diesel prompt premiums spike in northwest Europe Front-month Ice gasoil futures spiked at $18.50/t above the second-month contract at the close of trading on 5 July, marking the highest premium for prompt delivery since strike action shut most of France's refineries at the end of March. But traders are expecting a boost in supply later this month with fresh gasoil cargoes on the way to Europe from east of Suez.

6 July Venezuela ends diesel subsidy for most drivers Venezuela has lifted an almost full subsidy on diesel for most drivers and is charging 32¢/l ($1.21/USG), according to a notice from state-owned PdV to the association of retail stations.

6 July PetroPeru offers two fuel oil cargoes State-owned PetroPeru has issued a tender for two high-sulphur residual fuel oil (HSFO) cargoes totaling 210,000 bl for later this month.

6 July Singapore's light distillate stocks at seven-month low Singapore's onshore oil product inventories fell to a two-week low of 41.84mn bl in the week to 5 July, because of drops in light and middle distillate stocks.

6 July Japan's Cosmo sells HSFO on coker issues Japanese refiner Cosmo Oil has sold rare high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) cargoes, after coker unit issues at its 100,000 b/d Sakai refinery resulted in excess residuals from its Yokkaichi plant.

5 July Monjasa boosts Singapore bunker operations Denmark fuels trader and terminal operator Monjasa has expanded its Asia bunkering operations in Singapore.

5 July Fire at Bayernoil refinery to hit gasoil production A fire has curtailed production at the 86,000 b/d Neustadt refinery in Germany, part of the 207,000 b/d Bayernoil complex.

5 July Canada's west coast port workers on strike Port operations on Canada's west coast have slowed significantly as port workers have been on strike since 1 July.

5 July Kuwait's al-Zour launches final crude distillation unit The third and final crude distillation unit (CDU) of Kuwait's new 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery has started, refinery operator Kipic said on 5 July.

5 July Biofuel Express to sell Neste's HVO in Denmark Scandinavian biofuel distributer Biofuel Express will sell Neste's hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), called ‘My Renewable Diesel', in Denmark, according to an agreement between the two companies.

4 July WAF diesel imports down as Indian volumes slow in June West African diesel cargo imports hit a four-month low in June as Indian supply dried up.

3 July Dutch refineries ramped up in April Oil products refining and trading activity in the Netherlands picked up significantly in April, with surging middle distillate refinery yields and an apparent hindrance to gasoline production caused by limited naphtha imports.

3 July Brazil's diesel, gasoline sales up in May Brazil's diesel consumption increased in May as the domestic economy strengthened, while gasoline sales jumped as favorable economics boosted its consumption against ethanol at the pump.

3 July Jodi: UK refinery output and demand fell again in May UK refinery output and oil demand fell on an annual basis in May, but the rate of contraction slowed compared with April amid a mixed economic picture.

3 July Kuwait' al-Zour refinery unit fire put out Kuwait's state-owned Kipic said that a fire that broke out earlier at Unit 12 of the 615,000 b/d al-Zour refinery was put out on 2 July with no injuries reported, according to state news agency Kuna.


Sharelinkedin-sharetwitter-sharefacebook-shareemail-share

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US naphtha market poised for change

Viewpoint: US naphtha market poised for change

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US Gulf coast naphtha supplies accumulated in the last half of 2024 amid faltering demand, with gasoline blenders representing a higher profile buying sector, but a pending refinery closure is set to tighten the market. Demand for all naphtha grades was much weaker coming into December because of a bearish gasoline outlook and as elevated octane prices dampened naphtha demand. Poor refinery margins encouraged refiners to run minimally, cutting back on refiner demand as well. Gasoline blenders' demand for naphtha dominated in 2024, which highlighted stronger naphtha prices in visible trades. Prices for good quality, low sulphur N+A naphtha into the gasoline blend pool averaged about 10-15¢/USG above generic reformer feedstock naphtha. Naphtha sellers were also keen to export, which moved larger volumes without engaging in volatile domestic spot markets. US naphtha exports this year through mid-December were up by over 50pc to average 272,730 b/d from a year prior, according to Vortexa data. From November to mid-December, naphtha departures from the US were up on the year by 66pc to 312,800 b/d. Despite overall increased exports in 2024, weakened Asia Pacific and European naphtha markets in the latter half of December diminished arbitrage opportunities. Heavy virgin naphtha (HVN) differentials to Nymex RBOB hovered in the mid-to-stronger 30s¢/USG discounts in the first half of December, compared with upper Nymex RBOB -40s¢/USG observed in the same period last year. However, these higher differentials were attributed more to the lower Nymex RBOB pricing basis than market strength. Comparative cash prices hovered around 160¢/USG year on year, despite a 10¢/bl hike in differentials in 2024. Supply, demand changes in store A major supply change in the Gulf coast naphtha market should tighten the ample supply of naphtha by February. LyondellBasell is on schedule to begin a staggered shutdown of its 264,000 b/d refinery in Houston, Texas, in January. The last crude distillation unit (CDU) at the site is expected to shut by February. The refiner is a steady supplier of premium quality HVN with very low sulphur, which is typically sold into the gasoline blending market. Depending on production rates, LyondellBasell, also known as Houston Refining (HRC) in naphtha circles, can load 10-15 barges of the premium quality HVN a month. However, Gulf coast naphtha remains well-supplied. ExxonMobil's third CDU at its 609,000 b/d Beaumont, Texas, refinery started operations in 2023, adding more naphtha production to the region. Naphtha exports were also significant on the demand front in 2024, despite Gulf coast naphtha export opportunities to Venezuela being curbed again on 18 April. US sanctions on oil trades to Venezuela were eased in October 2023, but reimposed by April this year due to fresh political conflict. Naphtha exports to Venezuela are currently restricted to joint-venture partners such as Chevron and Reliance. Some participants hope the incoming administration of president-elect Donald Trump will re-address oil trading with Venezuela, keeping this an item to watch in 2025. US naphtha exports to Venezuela averaged 57,600 b/d in 2024, up from 11,100 b/d during 2023, according to Vortexa, on relaxation of Venezuela sanctions from October 2023 through May 2024. Meanwhile, naphtha exports out of the Gulf coast were still focused on shipments to South America, led by Brazil and Colombia. Exports to Brazil averaged 48,600 b/d in 2024, up by 68pc from 2023 while naphtha arrivals in Colombia averaged 36,600 b/d in 2024, up by 36pc from 2023. Colombia buys light naphtha from the US for use as diluent and sells full-range naphtha out of Mamonal port to the US. By Daphne Tan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Find out more
News

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US amsul demand to stretch supply in 1Q

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US ammonium sulfate (amsul) prices are likely to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2025 because of increased demand, high feedstock costs and more forward purchases as buyers look to avoid the high prices seen last spring. Scarcity seen in the 2023-2024 fertilizer year in the US amsul market has continued into 2024-2025. Strong demand has drained US inventories, despite rising domestic production in the third quarter, which increased by 11pc to 4.8mn short tons (st) compared to the five-year average of 4.25mn st, according to data from The Fertilizer Institute (TFI). But production in the fourth quarter has fallen because of extended plant downtime. Major production facilities such as AdvanSix's 1.75mn st Hopewell, Virginia, plant and Nutrien's 700,000 metric tonne (t) Redwater, Alberta, plant underwent prolonged turnarounds in the fourth quarter, according to sources. The unplanned downtime reduced the availability of pre-pay volumes in the market and caused at least one producer to partly cover their reduced output by purchasing imports. But imports have only provided the US market with limited supply relief. Year-over-year, US imports are lagging by 17pc from July through October. Around 282,700t of amsul entered the US during the period, compared to the 338,600t that arrived in the same period last year. This year's imports are still 11pc greater than the five-year average, illustrating the trend of demand growth in the US. Increasing feedstock costs have also supported amsul prices through the back-half of 2024. Fertilizer producer IOC said higher feedstock costs were the primary driver of its fourth quarter price hike at the start of October. Feedstock ammonia prices are expected to slip or remain stable for January because of seasonal weakness and lower global prices, said sources. Feedstock sulfur market prices on the other hand have risen over the period and may incur a $20-30/st increase because of rising global demand, according to market participants. Amsul's relationship status update Amsul values slipped in December and early January of last year, allowing the market to buy at lower values before the spring season. The opposite is anticipated to occur this year after major producers AdvanSix and IOC increased their offers for first quarter pre-pay delivery in December. Despite the rising price of amsul, buyers have been lining up more forward deliveries this fall than other years, according to sources. In lieu of hand-to-mouth buying and rising prices last spring, buyers are looking to hedge against potential volatility in the back half of the fertilizer year. Bolstered demand has led to additional price strength which is expected to persist through the winter season. Demand for ammonium sulfate arrived earlier than usual but it is unclear whether it will resurface as strong in the spring. Amsul price in the US Corn Belt recently rose to an average of $380/st, 20pc above the average price in December of last year. Amsul prices typically rise in the spring season when applications begin, so amsul values would appreciate even further if that trend occurs this year. By Meghan Yoyotte Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: US gas market poised for more volatility


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US gas market poised for more volatility

New York, 26 December (Argus) — US natural gas markets may be subjected to more dramatic price swings in 2025 as growing LNG exports and increasingly price-sensitive producers place greater pressure on the US' stagnant gas storage capacity. Those price swings could pose challenges for consumers without ample access to gas supplies, as well as producers interested in keeping some output unhedged to capture potentially higher prices without taking on excessive financial risk. But volatility may also present opportunities for traders looking to exploit unstable price spreads, and for producers that can adapt their operations to fit a more unpredictable pricing environment. Calm before the storm High storage levels and low spot prices this year — averaging $2.11/mmBtu through November this year at the US benchmark Henry Hub — triggered by an unusually warm 2023-24 winter, may have obscured some of the structural factors pushing the US gas market into a more volatile future. But those structural factors remain and loom increasingly large for prices. The US has moved from a roughly 60 Bcf/d (1.7bn m³/d) market eight years ago to a more than 100 Bcf/d market today, "and we haven't grown our storage capacity at all", Rich Brockmeyer, head of North American gas and power at commodity trading house Gunvor, said earlier this year. As supply and demand for US gas grow, the country's roughly 4.7-Tcf storage capacity becomes ever less effective in stemming demand shocks, such as extreme winter weather events, which can more rapidly draw down inventories than in years past. Additionally, a growing share of US gas is being consumed by LNG export terminals being built and expanded on the US Gulf coast. When those facilities encounter unexpected problems and cease operations — as has happened numerous times at the 2 Bcf/d Freeport LNG terminal in Texas in recent years — volumes that were previously being liquefied and sent overseas were instead backed up into the domestic market, crushing prices. More LNG exports may mean more opportunities for such supply shocks. US LNG exports are expected to increase by 15pc to almost 14 Bcf/d in 2025 as operations begin at Venture Global's planned 27.2mn t/yr Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and Cheniere's 11.5mn t/yr Corpus Christi, Texas, stage 3 expansion, US Energy Information Administration data show. Spot price volatility will be most acutely felt in regions like New England that lack underground gas storage. "In areas like the Gulf coast, where you have a lot of storage, it won't be a problem," Alan Armstrong, chief executive of Williams, the largest US gas pipeline company, told Argus in an interview. Producers' trade-off Volatile gas markets are a mixed bag for producers, many of whom profit from volatility while also struggling to plan and budget based on uncertain revenues for unhedged volumes. Though insufficient gas storage deprives the market of stability, "from the standpoint of a marketing and trading guy that's trying to manage my gas supply to customers and my trading book, I love volatility",said Dennis Price, vice president of marketing and trading at Expand Energy, the largest US gas producer by volume. BP chief financial officer Sinead Gorman in November 2023 specifically named Freeport LNG's eight-month-long shutdown in 2022-23 from a fire as a driver of volatility in the global gas market. The supermajor was able to exploit the "incredibly fragile" gas market, she said, which was a key factor driving the success of its integrated gas business. "Those opportunities are what we typically seek and enjoy," Gorman said. Increasingly, producers have also been adapting to a more volatile market by switching production on and off in response to prices, but often without revealing the price at which a supply response will occur. Expand Energy, for instance, told investors in October that it was amassing drilled but uncompleted wells and wells that had yet to be brought on line, which it could activate relatively quickly when prices rise. It declined to name the price at which that would occur. Market participants, attempting to price in this phenomenon by anticipating producers' next moves may respond more dramatically to supply signals than in the past, when production was steadier. Producers' increased responsiveness to prices could help to balance the market somewhat, though more aggressive intervention into operations could take a toll on well performance and pipelines, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Producers are "treating the reservoir itself like a storage facility", Price said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: Unified CO2 market remains in distance

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — Washington state's carbon market enters 2025 on steadier ground than it stood on for much of the past year, but still faces hurdles before it is part of a larger North American market. Washington's cap-and-invest program has weathered a year of highs and lows between advancing its ambitions to link with the Western Climate Initiative and operating through much of the year under threat of repeal in the November state elections. The state Department of Ecology director Laura Watson began the state's quest to link with the WCI last year , as regulators looked to the larger, more liquid market to potentially temper the higher-than-expected prices over the first year of the market in 2023. Washington Carbon Allowances (WCAs) for December 2023 delivery surged as high as $70/t last year, according to Argus assessments. But the state has clinched several wins for its program this year. State lawmakers were able to pass a bill to smooth out several areas of potential incompatibility with the WCI earlier this year, along with California and Quebec agreeing to move forward into formal linkage talks in March . But a repeal effort, initiative 2117, seeking to remove the state's cap-and-invest program dampened prices and forward movement on linkage since January. WCAs for December 2024 delivery fell to the lowest price to date for the program at $30.25/t on 4 March, according to Argus assessments, as uncertainty over the future of the program quieted market participation. State voters backed the cap-and-invest program in November with 62pc against the repeal effort, but months of uncertainty has cost the state time and linkage progress as the WCI awaited the November results. Additionally, while Washington started its own linkage rulemaking in April to align the program with changes planned for the WCI, finishing it requires the joint market first finalize its own changes. The linkage logjam has left market participants feeling that the state's momentum is stalled for the moment, even as perception of the state's eventual joining remains a question of "when" not "if." Ecology says it remains in communication with the WCI members and is evaluating the impact of California's new rulemaking timeline. California has indicated over this year that it does not intend to focus fully on linkage until its current rulemaking is complete. Ecology estimates it will adopt its new rules in fall 2025, with the earliest the state could expect a linkage agreement in late 2025. Washington must still complete further steps required by state law before any linkage agreement can proceed, including an environmental justice assessment and a final evaluation of a potential joint market under criteria set by its Climate Commitment Act, along with public comment. California and Quebec must also conduct their own evaluations to comply with respective state and provincial laws. If this timing works out, Ecology would be part of joint auctions starting in 2026. Compounding the process is the potential threat posed by incoming president-elect Donald Trump, who is likely to try to reverse major environmental regulations and commitments. Trump sought ultimately unsuccessful litigation in his first administration to sever the link between Quebec and California in 2019. The administration pursued the case on the grounds that California's participation violated federal authority to establish trade and other agreements with foreign entities under Article I of the US Constitution, which sets out the role of the federal and state powers in commerce and agreements with foreign powers. Both California and Washington have undergone preparations in recent months to gird themselves for a legal fight with the incoming administration, and that may add further scrutiny to linkage for both states going forward, said Justin Johnson, a market expert with the International Emissions Trading Association. "I think that it will require them to be more vigilant about the process they use and making sure they dot their i's and cross their t's because I think that there will be some folks in the federal administration who would like to see that not happen," Johnson said. By Denise Cathey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Viewpoint: US PGP prices set to rise in 2025


26/12/24
News
26/12/24

Viewpoint: US PGP prices set to rise in 2025

Houston, 26 December (Argus) — US spot polymer-grade propylene (PGP) prices are likely to increase into 2025, driven largely by several planned limitations on supply. By mid-December, the US PGP market had the sharpest contango structure between the prompt month and the forward month since Argus began tracking data over 10 years ago. A contango is when the next month's price is higher than the current month's price. On 12 December, December-delivery PGP at the Enterprise Products Partners (EPC) system at Mont Belvieu, Texas, traded at 35.75¢/lb, while January-delivery PGP traded twice at 38.75¢/lb. Argus ' PGP forward curve shows prices rising to over 40¢/lb by the second quarter of next year. Many factors are behind this record 3¢/lb premium for January PGP and the continued increase into mid-year. The first is that spot prices have dipped to their lowest levels since August 2023 on a rare period of no major supply disruption at propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, which produce on-purpose propylene. Most propylene production in the US comes as a byproduct from refineries or as a co-product from steam crackers. All four US Gulf coast PDH units have been operating without major incident or extended shutdown since the late summer. Since mid-August, only Enterprise's PDH-1 was shut, for two weeks in mid-October, but this was not enough to stop the downtrend in PGP's spot price. US spot PGP prices declined by 40pc from a 12 August near-term peak of 58¢/lb to a low of 35¢/lb on 9 December. A second major factor behind the market's sharp contango is that PGP supply is set to tighten in 2025. Propylene supply will have a structural reduction when LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d refinery in Houston begins shutting down units in January and completed closes by the end of the first quarter. The company sought to exit the refining business but could not find a buyer for the refinery, which produces 136,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of propylene. There are no planned additions to US propylene capacity in 2025, and several US crackers that produce propylene as a co-product are set for turnarounds in the first quarter. Meanwhile, propylene demand is set to structurally rise in the second half of 2025, when Formosa's new 250,000 t/yr polypropylene plant in Point Comfort, Texas, is scheduled to come online. A third major factor indicating that US spot PGP prices in December are the lowest they will be for at least several months is seasonality. One market participant said that spot activity to end 2024 is largely characterized by sellers destocking inventory ahead of the state of Texas' ad valorem taxes on inventories. This tends to cause seasonally lower prices in December and then a rise in prices in January as the market restocks inventory. This trend has persisted for the last four straight years. These three major factors — uninterrupted supply to end 2024, supply tightening in 2025, and seasonal buying patterns — all stand behind the sharpest contango into the next year for propylene in 10 years of record keeping. The forward curve for PGP indicates a rise of 5¢/lb between now and the middle of next year. The forward curve, though, does not account for any unplanned shutdowns of PDH units, which happen frequently as PDH units are operationally less reliable than propylene-producing crackers and refineries. In July, the US had three of its four PDH units shut down, taking 2.9mn t/yr of on-purpose propylene capacity offline. Such incidents could spike prices for PGP above the uptrend expected into next year. By Michael Camarda Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more