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Bolivia political deal clears gas line, urea plant

  • Market: Fertilizers, Natural gas
  • 25/11/19

A breakthrough in Bolivia's political crisis is clearing the way for repairs to a sabotaged natural gas pipeline and a urea plant.

Jeanine Anez, the conservative former senator who declared an interim administration after longtime president Evo Morales resigned on 10 November, struck a political compromise yesterday with Morales' Movement toward Socialism party (MAS) that will lead the country to new elections by around the end of April 2020.

Morales supporters agreed to lift roadblocks, while the Anez administration vowed to withdraw the military from the streets.

The military and police effectively abandoned Morales after he declared victory in his bid for a fourth presidential term in 20 October elections that the Washington-based Organization of American States (OAS) deemed to be tainted.

Unrest broke out shortly after the elections, and later focused around La Paz and Cochabamba where Morales supporters had demanded his return. Tensions peaked last week when protesters blocked the Senkata fuel terminal in El Alto outside of La Paz.

The lifting of the roadblocks has allowed technicians to access the Carrasco-Cochabamba gas pipeline that was sabotaged in early November, allegedly by Morales supporters shortly after he fled to Mexico where he was given political asylum. Around 200m of the domestic pipeline were damaged, according to Bolivia's state-owned oil and gas company YPFB.

Bolivia's defense ministry reported that farmers agreed to allow workers from YPFB to access the pipeline and undertake repairs.

The pipeline supplies the 700,000 t/yr Bulo Bulo urea and ammonia plant in Cochabamba's jungle region. YPFB said it was too early to determine how much time would be needed to fix the line.

The plant had been producing at a reduced capacity since late October because of the roadblocks that prevented urea supply from reaching neighboring Brazil.

YPFB signed a commercial deal on 15 October with Russia's Acron to provide natural gas for urea production at a plant that the Russian company operates in Brazil's Mato Grosso do Sul state. Under the contract, Acron will help distribute urea from the Bolivian plant.

The unrest in Bolivia did not impact the country's pipeline gas exports to Brazil and Argentina which account for the bulk of the government's revenue. YPFB had warned its counterparts in both countries on 11 November of possible interruptions, but these never materialized. The operations of foreign companies, including Spain's Repsol, France's Total, Shell and Russia's Gazprom, were largely unaffected.

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Under ground-breaking legislation approved by the MAS-controlled congress yesterday, a new electoral board will be installed within 20 days. The board is tasked with calling elections within 120 days.

The legislation prohibits Morales and his former vice president Alvaro Garcia from running in the new elections. Garcia fled to Mexico along with Morales, a steadfast ally of Venezuela's president Nicolas Maduro, whose government is the target of US sanctions.

The indigenous Morales was first elected in 2005 on a resource nationalist platform and served nearly 14 years before resigning. Despite his rhetoric, the Morales administration provided a stable operating climate for oil and gas companies.

Morales and his supporters inside and outside Bolivia say he was the victim of a coup. Among his regional backers are Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela and Uruguay. Montevideo's stance could now swing into the anti-Morales camp if the initial results of a 24 November run-off election favoring center-right Luis Lacalle Pou are confirmed. But Argentina is shifting leftward with incoming president Alberto Fernandez, who replaces pro-business Mauricio Macri early next month.

By Lucien Chauvin and Patricia Garip


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03/04/25

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Funding cuts could delay US river lock renovations

Houston, 3 April (Argus) — The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) will have to choose between various lock reconstruction and waterway projects for its annual construction plan after its funding was cut earlier this year. Last year Congress allowed the Corps to use $800mn from unspent infrastructure funds for other waterways projects. But when Congress passed a continuing resolutions for this year's budget they effectively removed that $800mn from what was a $2.6bn annual budget for lock reconstruction and waterways projects. This means a construction plan that must be sent to Congress by 14 May can only include $1.8bn in spending. No specific projects were allocated funding by Congress, allowing the Corps the final say on what projects it pursues under the new budget. River industry trade group Waterways Council said its top priority is for the Corps to provide a combined $205mn for work at the Montgomery lock in Pennsylvania on the Ohio River and Chickamauga lock in Tennesee on the Tennessee River since they are the nearest to completion and could become more expensive if further delayed. There are seven active navigation construction projects expected to take precedent, including the following: the Chickamauga and Kentucky Locks on the Tennessee River; Locks 2-4 on the Monongahela River; the Three Rivers project on the Arkansas River; the LaGrange Lock and Lock 25 on the Illinois River; and the Montgomery Lock on the Ohio River. There are three other locks in Texas, Pennsylvania and Illinois that are in the active design phase (see map) . By Meghan Yoyotte Corps active construction projects 2025 Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

Mexico, Canada sidestep latest Trump tariffs: Update

Adds Canada reaction Mexico City, 3 April (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's sweeping tariff measures largely spared Mexico and Canada from additional penalties, as the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA) will continue to exempt most commerce, including Mexico's energy exports. According to Trump's tariff announcement on Wednesday , all foreign imports into the US will be subject to a minimum 10pc tax starting on 5 April, with levels as high as 34pc for China and 20pc for the EU. Mexico and Canada are the US' closest trading partners and have seen tariffs imposed and then postponed several times this year, but remained mostly exempt from Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs. Energy and "certain minerals that are not available in the US" imported from all other countries also will be exempt from the tariffs. Trump also did not reimpose punitive tariffs on energy and other imports from Canada and Mexico. All products covered by the USMCA, which include energy commodities, are exempt as well. Yet steel and aluminum, cars, trucks and auto parts from Mexico and Canada remain subject to separate tariffs. Steel and aluminum imports are subject to 25pc, in effect since 12 March. The 25pc tariff on all imported cars and trucks will go into effect on Thursday, whereas a 25pc tax on auto parts will go into effect on 3 May. Mexico's president Claudia Sheinbaum this morning emphasized the "good relationship" and "mutual respect" between Mexico and the US, which she said was key to Trump's decision to prioritize the USMCA over potential further tariffs on Mexican imports. "So far, we have managed to reach a relatively more privileged position when it comes to these tariffs," Sheinbaum said. "Many of our industries are now exempt from tariffs. We aim to reach a better position regarding steel, aluminum and auto parts exports, too." The Mexican peso strengthened by 1.5pc against the US dollar in the wake of the tariff announcement, to Ps19.96/$1 by late morning on Thursday from Ps20.25/$1 on Wednesday. Mexico has not placed any tariffs on imports from the US, which may have eliminated the need for the US to reciprocate with tariffs. "In contrast to what will apply to 185 global economies, Mexico remains exempt from reciprocal tariffs," Mexico's economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said. Mexico exported 500,000 b/d of crude to the US last year, making the US by far the most important export market for the nation's commodity. Mexico also imports the majority of its motor fuels and LPG from the US. If US won't lead, Canada will: Carney To the north, Canada's prime minister says the US' latest trade actions will "rupture" the global economy. "The global economy is fundamentally different today than it was yesterday," said prime minister Mark Carney on Thursday while announcing retaliatory tariffs on auto imports from the US. Canada is matching the US with 25pc tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US that are not compliant with the USMCA, referred to as CUSMA in Canada. But unlike the US tariffs, which took effect Thursday, Canada's will not include auto parts. Automaker Stellantis has informed Unifor Local 444 that it is shutting down the Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario for two weeks starting on 7 April, with the primary driver being Trump's tariffs. The closure will affect 3,600 workers. Trump on 2 April unveiled a chart of dozens of countries the US is targeting with new tariffs, but that lengthy list may also represent opportunity for Canada and Mexico, who have already been dealing with US trade action. "The world is waking up today to a reality that Canada has been living with for months," Canadian Chamber of Commerce president Candace Laing said, a reality which Carney views as an opportunity for his country. "Canada is ready to take a leadership role in building a coalition of like-minded countries who share our values," said Carney. "If the United States no longer wants to lead, Canada will." By Cas Biekmann and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash


03/04/25
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03/04/25

Trump to 'stand firm' on tariffs as markets crash

Washington, 3 April (Argus) — President Donald Trump does not intend to back down from his plan for sweeping import tariffs that have already caused a sell-off in global equity markets and some commodities, administration officials say. The tariffs — which will start at 10pc for most imports on 5 April before steeper country-specific tariffs take effect on 9 April, with exceptions for some energy and mineral imports — have caused key stock indexes to drop by as much as 5pc, with even larger declines in crude futures, as investors brace for lower growth and a higher chance of a recession. Trump earlier today defended the tariffs, as he prepared to leave the White House for a dinner tonight at a golf tournament at one of his resorts in Florida. "THE OPERATION IS OVER! THE PATIENT LIVED, AND IS HEALING," Trump wrote in a social media post before major stock markets opened. Trump's cabinet has downplayed the short-term price effect of the tariffs, which they say will boost economic growth in the US and cause a resurgence in domestic manufacturing. US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said he does not think there is "any chance" that Trump will rescind the tariffs, and said Trump will only begin to work on new trade deals once a country has "really, really changed their ways" on trade practices. "Trump is going to stand firm because he is reordering global trade," Lutnick said today in an interview with CNN. "Make no mistake about it, America has been exploited, and he is done allowing America to be exploited." Other administration officials have suggested a greater potential for lower tariffs in the near-term. US treasury secretary Scott Bessent has encouraged world leaders to "take a deep breath" and not to "panic" because the tariff rates that Trump announced were a "ceiling" that might come down, so long as there was no retaliation. "Don't immediately retaliate, let's see where this goes, because if you retaliate, that's how we get escalation," Bessent said on 2 April during interview on Fox News. The tariffs have caused bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, but so far legislative action has been symbolic and unlikely to become law. The US Senate, in a bipartisan vote on 2 April, approved a joint resolution that would end the justification Trump has used to put tariffs on Canada. US senators Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Maria Cantwell (D-Washington) introduced a bill today to eliminate most new presidential tariffs after 60 days without approval by the US Congress. Democrats say the tariffs will force consumers to pay far more on everyday goods, with revenue offsetting Republican plans to provide more than $5 trillion in tax cuts. "Donald Trump is using tariffs in the dumbest way imaginable. In fact, Donald Trump slapped tariffs on penguins and not on Putin," US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) said today, in reference to Trump's decision to put a 10pc tariff on an island populated only with penguins. Trump has claimed his country-specific tariffs are "reciprocal" even though they have no relation to the tariffs each country charges on US imports. Instead, Trump's tariffs were calculated based on a universal equation that is set at half of the country's trade deficit with the US, divided by the country's imports from the US, with a minimum tariff rate of 10pc. Major US trading partners are preparing for retaliatory tariffs. Canada's prime minister Mark Carney said he would respond to Trump's tariffs on automobiles, which took effect today, by "matching the US approach" and imposing a 25pc tariff on auto imports that do not comply with the US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement. China said it was preparing unspecified countermeasures to US tariffs that would be set at 54pc. Trump's cabinet today dismissed the market reaction to the tariffs. Stock markets are going through a "short-term adjustment" but the tariffs will ultimately result in more growth and additional investments, US Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler said today in an interview on Fox News "The gravy train is over for the globalist elites," said Loeffler, who previously was a top executive at US exchange operator ICE. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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LNG faces limited direct disruption from US tariffs


03/04/25
News
03/04/25

LNG faces limited direct disruption from US tariffs

London, 3 April (Argus) — New US trade tariffs announced on 2 April are unlikely to cause any direct disruption to the LNG market because global LNG demand has become more inelastic in the past three years. But market participants warned of recessionary pressure and indirect effects on gas demand. The key recipients of US LNG — the EU, Japan and South Korea, for example — may be considering responding to the new US trade policy with retaliatory tariffs, among other measures. But these are unlikely to include levies on US LNG imports, market participants said, which would limit any direct disruption on LNG trade flows in the Atlantic basin. Europe has become much more reliant on LNG imports after losing the bulk of Russian pipeline imports. Europe last year imported 45pc of its LNG from the US, according to ship-tracking data from analytics firm Vortexa. And the EU would need quick LNG imports to replace Russian supply and fill its underground storage facilities this summer, with its combined gas inventory level at 33pc on 31 March, according to transparency platform Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. Traditional Asian importers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to seek an engagement approach other than direct retaliatory tariffs on US imports. US LNG purchases in the past often have been a means by which to reduce countries' trade surplus with the US. South Korea's energy minister expressed the country's interest in the 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project in a visit in late March , while Taiwan's CPC signed an initial agreement for the project, according to Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs . Emerging LNG importer Vietnam was considering reducing import taxes on US LNG to 2pc from the present 5pc, according to state-owned PV Gas. The possibility of increasing US LNG purchases in the future also may be a key element in potential trade negotiations with the US aimed at reducing the 46pc tariffs on imports from Vietnam announced on 2 April, according to market participants. LNG trade flows already had been reshuffled before the latest round of US tariffs, in light of China's retaliatory tariff of 15pc on US LNG imports. China halted LNG imports from the US in early February , by reselling its contracted US offtake in other markets and replacing it with cargoes of other origin, if needed. But the tariffs have destabilised economies around the world, particularly those with large trade surpluses with the US, which are likely to reduce gas and LNG demand in different geographies. Tariffs pose direct risks for US LNG projects US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, imposed on 12 March, present an immediate risk for US LNG developers, particularly for the five projects currently under construction and the six others expected to reach final investment decisions in 2025. Metals represent up to 30pc of the cost of building an LNG export plant. Depending on the project's size, an LNG terminal could cost $5bn-$25bn, with steel used for pipelines, tanks and other structural frameworks. Although facilities can use some domestic supplies for construction, higher prices could result in delays to construction and final investment decisions in planned liquefaction projects ( see table ). Delays to the planned 18.1mn t/yr Golden Pass LNG facility have already underscored how rising costs can upend construction timelines. Zachry, a lead contractor in engineering, procurement and construction work for the facility, filed for bankruptcy last May and exited the project. Pandemic-related inflation and supply chain delays have caused costs to surge by $2.4bn from the original $9.25bn contract, the firm said . Golden Pass, which once targeted first LNG in the second half of last year, now expects its first production in late 2025 or early 2026 . NextDecade's 17.4mn t/yr Rio Grande LNG project in south Texas had bought only 69pc of supplies for trains 1-2 and only 33pc for train 3 by late February, making the three-train project particularly vulnerable to higher steel prices. Projects that are closer to completion may face less inflationary pressure. Equipment and materials needed for the seven-train expansion at Cheniere's Corpus Christi stage 3 were delivered, according to the firm in February . And 34 of 36 liquefaction trains at Venture Global's Plaquemines facility have been delivered on site, with the two remaining trains expected to arrive by the end of March, Venture global said last month . US LNG projects in pipeline Project Capacity ( mn t/yr ) Expected start/FID Under construction Plaquemines 19.2 2025 Corpus Christi stage 3 12.0 2025 Golden Pass 18.1 2026 Rio Grande 17.6 2027 Port Arthur 13.5 2027 Waiting for final investment decision Delfin FLNG 1 13.2 mid-2025 Texas LNG 4.0 2025 Calcasieu Pass 2 28.0 mid-2025 Corpus Christi train 8-9 3.3 2025 Louisiana LNG 16.5 mid-2025 Cameron train 4 6.8 mid-2025 — Argus Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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Indian DAP subsidy increase falls short


03/04/25
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03/04/25

Indian DAP subsidy increase falls short

London, 3 April (Argus) — Rebuilding India's DAP inventories remains an uphill struggle as the latest subsidies and current market prices keep importers' and many producers' margins in the red, despite a rise in the subsidy. India will have to keep relying on NPKs/NPs to cover much of its phosphate needs. The Indian government has set the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) for DAP for the April-September kharif season at 27,799 rupees/t. This is an increase of Rs5,888/t from the base subsidy for the October-March rabi season. The government will probably extend the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy for DAP into kharif, bringing the total subsidy for DAP up to Rs31,299/t. The maximum retail price (MRP) for DAP will remain at Rs27,000/t. DAP importers face losses The new subsidy rate, including the special additional subsidy, brings the breakeven import price for DAP to the low $600s/t cfr at the current exchange rate and MRP. This is well below the latest concluded level in the high $640s/t cfr, and almost $60/t below latest offers. Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy, the breakeven import price would be around $563/t cfr. The government will probably commit to compensating importers for losses on DAP over kharif, but there has not yet been official confirmation. The department of fertilizers said in September last year that it would compensate importers for losses on DAP over rabi. But some importers said that they have not yet received this compensation. NPKs more attractive for many producers Indian DAP producers using phosphoric acid and ammonia imported at $1,153/t P2O5 cfr and $350/t cfr, respectively, now face losses of $25/t, given the current NBS, MRP and exchange rate. The second-quarter contract price for merchant-grade phosphoric acid to India is up by $98/t P2O5 from the first-quarter price of $1,055/t P2O5 cfr. The rise in the acid price was driven by soaring sulphur costs, firmer sentiment for DAP and falling ammonia prices — which are down from a midpoint of $440/t cfr at the start of the calendar year. Those producers using phosphoric acid will be drawn to the profits to be gained from making NPKs. The new subsidies for 10-26-26 and 12-32-16 are Rs16,257/t and Rs19,495/t, respectively. Both grades have an MRP of Rs35,000/t. At current phosphoric acid, ammonia and potash — with MOP at $283/t cfr with 180 days credit — import costs and exchange rates, Indian producers would see profits of around $48/t for 10-26-26 and $54/t for 12-32-16. DAP producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia will make a profit. Producers importing 30-31pc P2O5 phosphate rock at $153/t cfr, dry bulk sulphur at $280/t and ammonia at $350/t cfr now see margins of around $66/t. Phosphate rock prices have held broadly steady over recent quarters. The fall in ammonia costs has helped to counter the bull run in the global sulphur market, which has pushed up dry bulk sulphur cfr prices in India by $91/t at the midpoint since the beginning of 2025. Without the Rs3,500/t special additional subsidy on DAP, the loss for producers using imported phosphoric acid and ammonia would rise to around $66/t. And the margin for producers using imported phosphate rock, sulphur and ammonia would fall to around $25/t. Producers generally cannot switch between using phosphoric acid and using phosphate rock and sulphur. The Indian government did not cover the losses incurred by DAP producers over rabi — forcing many producers to turn to making NPKs/NPs instead. Although speculation has emerged that the government will compensate producers over kharif, there has been no official indication either way. DAP stocks to remain low Provisional data indicate that India ended March with around 1.3mn t of DAP in stock, still well below the perceived comfortable minimum of 2mn t. Indian distributors will want to build DAP stocks ahead of the peak offtake season — beginning around June. But while importers and producers continue to face losses, stocks will remain low and many farmers will again have to settle for NPKs/NPs as an alternative source of phosphate. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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