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Marine fuel global weekly market update

  • Market: Biofuels, E-fuels, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 07/08/23

Marine fuel global weekly market update

A weekly Argus news digest of interest to the conventional and alternative marine fuel markets. To speak to our team about accessing the stories below and access to Argus Marine Fuels, please contact marinefuels@argusmedia.com.

Alternative marine fuels

New York, 4 August World Kinect bunker sales slump but profit is up US-based fuel supplier World Kinect, formerly known as World Fuel Services, boosted its profit in the second quarter from a year earlier, as its cost cutting outpaced falling sales.

Singapore, 4 August Methanex hikes China methanol contract price, cuts Asia Canada-based methanol producer Methanex has hiked its China Posted Contract Price (CPCP) for August, but lowered its Asian Posted Contract Price (APCP) for a fifth consecutive month.

London, 3 August Brooge Energy moves ahead with UAE green ammonia plant Cayman Islands-based Brooge Renewable Energy has completed a feasibility study on an export-focused green ammonia project in Abu Dhabi in the UAE.

London, 3 August Thyssenkrupp Uhde to collaborate on green ammonia FSPO German chemical engineering firm Thyssenkrupp Uhde will collaborate with a consortium to develop a green ammonia and hydrogen floating production and offloading vessel (FPSO) by 2027.

London, 3 August Italiy's Hysytech to develop Swedish bio-LNG project Italian energy engineering company Hysytech has been awarded a contract to upgrade a Swedish biogas site to produce liquefied biomethane (bio-LNG).

Houston, 3 August PBF 2Q margins down, first renewable fuel sales US independent refiner PBF's margins were more than halved in the second quarter, but overall profits were only marginally down from the same period in 2022.

London, 3 August Global LNG output rebounds in July Aggregate LNG output from producers rebounded in July, both on the year and the month, supported by quicker exports from the US and Australia.

London, 3 August S Korea's HHI receives order for two LNG carriers South Korean shipbuilder Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) has received a new order for two LNG carriers.

Brussels, 2 August EU consults on ETS implementation The European Commission has published further draft technical legislation for consultation, notably allowing for the inclusion of maritime and further aviation emissions in the bloc's emissions trading system (ETS), as well as an additional scheme covering road transport and building emissions.

New York, 1 August Fuel oil bunkering to linger despite new GHG rule The International Maritime Organisation (IMO)'s revised greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation for marine fuel will dent residual fuel oil demand, but the market could persist on demand from oil tanker and dry bulk vessel owners, and on production from decarbonised petroleum refineries.

Sao Paulo, 1 August Brazil's Bndes expands sustainable biofuels financing Brazil's state-owned development bank Bndes has expanded sustainability-linked financing available to the biofuel sector to R3.5bn ($730mn), after approving an R1.5bn boost in the loans to producers that agree to reduce their carbon footprints.

London, 31 July SK's Hanwha Ocean receives LNG carrier order South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean has received a construction order for an LNG carrier to be delivered before March 2027.

Conventional marine fuels

London, 4 August Ban squeezes Europe's HSFO supply The EU ban on Russian fuel oil imports has been a bigger problem for Europe than for Russia — unsurprising, considering Russian high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) accounted for a much bigger share of EU imports than of Russian exports.

London, 4 August Unit to restart at ExxonMobil's UK Fawley refinery ExxonMobil said it will return a unit online at its 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery in the UK this coming weekend after a turnaround.

London, 4 August Croatian VGO imports at record in July: Vortexa Croatia's vacuum gasoil (VGO) imports were 69,000t in July — the highest on record — and other major European consumers raised their receipts, according to data from Vortexa.

Kingston, 4 August Drought effects to cost Panama Canal $200mn The Panama Canal is projecting fiscal year 2024 revenues to be $200mn less than its initial $4.9bn estimate, its administrator Ricaurte Vasquez said.

London, 3 August Russian sanctions squeeze HSFO supplies in the EU The EU ban on Russian fuel oil imports has been a bigger problem for Europe than for Russia — unsurprising, considering Russian high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) accounted for a much bigger share of EU imports than of Russian exports.

London, 3 August Drop in fuel oil pressures ARA stocks Independently-held oil product stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) oil trading hub fell marginally in the week to 2 August, according to Insights Global, to 5.68mn t. A near 6pc dip in fuel oil inventories drove the downturn.

New York, 3 August Panama Canal delays boost clean rates to Chile, Peru The longest delays in at least two years at the Panama Canal's Panamax locks are causing clean tanker operators to charge premium rates to take US Gulf coast refined product shipments across the canal to South America's Pacific coast, or avoid canal transits altogether.

New York, 2 August Peru HSFO exports double on production spike Peru high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) exports nearly doubled in the first five months of the year on significantly higher production.

Singapore, 2 August Kuwaiti al-Zour August LSFO offers to weaken Kuwaiti state-owned KPC's low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) offers from its 615,000 al-Zour refinery are expected by market participants to slow this month because of reduced production.

London, 2 August Scorpio Tankers bullish despite drop in rates Scorpio Tankers' profits fell in the second quarter of 2023 on lower vessel earnings amid weaker summer demand, but the product tanker owner remains bullish about the market because of robust product demand and low inventories leading to record levels of seaborne exports.

New York, 1 August Clean tanker demand to rise ‘significantly': Ardmore A drawdown of European diesel stocks is expected to increase EU import demand for refined products, boosting ton-mile demand for product tankers in the process, according to tanker owner Ardmore Shipping.

New York, 1 August Norwegian Cruise reports first profit since 2019 US-based Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) reported its first profit since 2019 as passenger demand continues to rise after the Covid-19 pandemic.

New York, 1 August Fuel oil bunkering to linger despite new GHG rule The International Maritime Organisation (IMO)'s revised greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation for marine fuel will dent residual fuel oil demand, but the market could persist on demand from oil tanker and dry bulk vessel owners, and on production from decarbonised petroleum refineries.

London, 1 August Gibraltar suspends port operations after oil spill Operations have been halted at the port of Gibraltar today following an oil spill.

Houston, 1 August US Gulf coast VGO-LSFO premium nears 2-month high US Gulf coast low sulphur VGO premiums to low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) extended to $11.25/bl this week behind gains in both markets.

New York, 1 August Panama Canal delays expected to increase Wait times for vessels transiting Panamax and Neopanamax locks at the Panama Canal — the key route for US Gulf exports of LPG to Asia-Pacific — will "invariably increase" owing to additional water-conservation measures as drought conditions affect the waterway, according to the Panama Canal Authority (ACP).

Hamburg, 1 August Rising Rhine water levels lower freight rates Rising Rhine river water levels have allowed for an increase in loading capacity on barges and have reduced freight rates for journeys from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to inland destinations.

Shanghai, 31 July China's fuel oil output rises in January-June China produced 27.07mn t fuel oil in the first half of this year, up by 11pc on the year, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.

London, 31 July Saudi Bahri shipping profits up in 2Q Saudi Arabian state-owned shipping firm Bahri's profits rose year on year in the second quarter, boosted by higher revenues in the crude and chemicals transportation sectors.


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Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku


13/11/24
News
13/11/24

Cop: Argentina pulls delegation from Baku

Montevideo, 13 November (Argus) — Argentina's government today withdrew its delegation from the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. The country's foreign affairs ministry confirmed to Argus that the delegation had been told to leave the event, which began on 11 November and will run through 22 November. No reason was given for the decision, but it fits the general policies of President Javier Milei, who has expressed skepticism about climate change. Milei eliminated the country's environment ministry shortly after taking office in December 2023. He is also pursuing investment to monetize oil and gas reserves, with a focus on the Vaca Muerta unconventional formation. Vaca Muerta has an estimated 308 trillion cf of natural gas and 16bn bl of oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In October, the government created the Argentina LNG division with a plan to involve private companies and the state-owned YPF to produce and export up to 30mn metric tonnes (t)/yr of LNG by 2030. It wants to export 1mn bl of crude. The plans are closely linked to a new investment framework, known as RIGI, that will provide incentives for large-scale investments. The administration is also pushing hard for investment in critical minerals, including copper and lithium. Argentina has the world's second-largest lithium resources, estimated at 22mn t by the US Geological Survey. It has copper potential that the RIGI would help tap. The government has not specified if pulling out of Cop 29 means Argentina will withdraw from the Paris Agreement, which Argentina ratified in 2016. The country's nationally determined contribution calls for net emissions not to exceed 359mn t of CO2 by 2030. This represents a 21pc reduction of emissions from the maximum reached in 2007. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report


13/11/24
News
13/11/24

No sign of peak in CO2 from fossil fuels: Report

London, 13 November (Argus) — Carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to hit a fresh record high of 37.4bn t in 2024, with "no sign" that these have peaked, a team of scientists said today in the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report. Total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 41.6bn t in 2024, up from 40.6bn t in 2023, which includes emissions of around 4.2bn t from land-use change, the report found. It also estimates the global carbon budget remaining before the 1.5°C temperature limit set out in the Paris climate agreement is "breached consistently over multiple years". The remaining carbon budget "has almost run out", the report found. There is a 50pc chance that warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels "consistently in about six years", the report found. There is uncertainty around the estimates, largely owed to the effects of other greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as methane and nitrous oxide, it noted. The Paris accord seeks to limit a rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above a pre-industrial average, and preferably to 1.5°C. This year is on track to be the hottest on record , the World Meteorological Organisation said on 11 November — the opening day of the UN Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan. And drought conditions have helped to reverse a recent downward trend in CO2 emissions from land-use change — such as deforestation — in 2024. Those emissions are set to rise in 2024, after falling by 20pc in the past decade, the report found. Permanent CO2 removals from reforestation and planting new trees is "offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions", it added. And the report authors noted that technology-based carbon removals — typically engineered, rather than nature-based — are at current levels only able to account for one-millionth of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Projections for the highest-emitting countries — China, the US and India — are mixed. China's emissions are projected to increase by 0.2pc in 2024, although the report noted that the range means they could decrease. US emissions are set to drop by 0.6pc, while India's are projected to rise by 4.6pc this year. The Global Carbon Budget report — which will be peer-reviewed — is produced annually by an international team of more than 120 scientists. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market


13/11/24
News
13/11/24

Trump’s win yields mixed picture for LNG market

London, 13 November (Argus) — Global gas and LNG market participants await clarity on president-elect Donald Trump's course of action once he takes office in January, as the net impact of some of its stated policies remains difficult to gauge. Price movements in recent days show little evidence of a market reaction to the outcome of the election. Prompt and near-curve LNG prices for delivery to Europe and Asia have risen, mostly tracking the increase in European hub prices. But the change in euro-denominated hub prices appears largely unrelated to the jump in the value of the US dollar that followed Trump's win. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six other currencies, has rallied since Trump's victory became apparent, reaching a two-year high on 13 November. The US currency was worth over €0.95 on Wednesday, up from €0.91 on polling day. This might have contributed to stronger European hub prices, albeit only slightly. Exchange rates aside, the election result was never likely to have a serious short-term impact on the LNG market. The halt to Russian gas flows through Ukraine at the end of this year, when transit and interconnection agreements between Moscow and Kyiv expire, is the variable with the most disruptive potential for European gas markets that are much more reliant on LNG since Russia launched its full-scale invasion. But a shift in US policy would not be able to exert influence on any negotiations — which remain hypothetical at present — aimed at extending gas flows through Ukraine, given that Trump is only due to take office in late January. But Trump's policies might from next year affect the LNG market. US LNG producers have expressed mixed feelings about the consequences of a second Trump administration, with a dividing line emerging between firms that already export LNG and those that want to build new export facilities. Forward gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub also appear to show a mixed picture, with contracts for delivery next year and in 2026 rising broadly in line with the near curve, while prices for delivery in the following two years have held broadly stable. Operators of existing liquefaction facilities were wary of Trump's enthusiastic endorsement of protectionist policies, which they fear could trigger another trade war with China. The president-elect has pledged to impose a 20pc tariff on all imports — except those from China, which will instead be subject to 60pc. The possibility of Beijing following suit with retaliatory tariffs on US LNG— as in 2018-19, during Trump's first term — concerns many market participants. Trump's trade war with China in 2018-19 was widely seen as detrimental to development of the industry, as it hampered trade between the largest incremental producer and consumer. But the nature of most US LNG contracts — predominantly based on free-on-board delivery — reduced the short-term impact. While physical deliveries to China did vanish in 2019, no US LNG exporter reported cancellations that year, with cargoes simply resold elsewhere or swapped with LNG from other countries. The re-emergence of similar trade disputes from next year could force another reconfiguration of trade flows, possibly facilitated by the fact Europe is now a much larger LNG importer than in 2018-19, when it was heavily dependent on Russian pipeline gas. Physical deliveries of US LNG to China fell sharply in 2022 and have still been at less than half their 2021 peak this year (see chart). But while higher than six years ago, Europe's LNG demand has not pushed beyond 2022's record, and the amount of US LNG in Chinese portfolios is also much larger. On the other hand, developers of new US liquefaction facilities have pinned their hopes on Trump's pledge to reverse the Biden's administration licensing pause, which froze projects and in some cases lost them contracts. But speeding up project approvals could result in a much more amply supplied market later in the decade, when a swathe of new facilities are already due on line (see chart) Industry figures have suggested the [LNG market could be oversupplied as early as 2028](https://direct.argusmedia.com/newsandanalysis/article/2493845. The greatest uncertainties are related to how Trump deals with the conflict in Ukraine. He has boasted he would end the war on his first day in office — overly optimistic at best. But even if his administration could bring about a swift end to the conflict, a full normalisation of relations between Russia and Ukraine is difficult to imagine. Nevertheless, a relaxation of US sanctions — including those targeting Russia's existing 19.8mn t/yr Arctic LNG 2 terminal — could be an initial bargaining chip and might result in an immediate increase in supply. By Antonio Peciccia US liquefaction capacity mn t/yr US LNG deliveries to China mn t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

News

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc


13/11/24
News
13/11/24

US inflation rises in October to 2.6pc

Houston, 13 November (Argus) — US inflation ticked higher in October, led by monthly gains in shelter, a reminder that the last lap in the Federal Reserve's marathon to bring inflation to its long-term target remains a challenge. The consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to an annual 2.6pc in October, in line with analysts' forecasts in a survey by Trading Economics, from 2.4pc in September, which was the lowest since February 2021, the Labor Department reported today. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose at a 3.3pc rate, unchanged on the month. The energy index contracted by 4.9pc over the 12 months, slowing from a decline of 6.8pc through September. The gasoline index fell by 12.2pc, slowing from a 15.3pc decrease the prior month. The fuel oil index fell by 20.8pc. Federal Reserve policymakers last week cut the target rate by a quarter point, following a half-point cut in September that kicked off an easing cycle from then-23-year highs. Inflation has slowed to near the Fed's 2pc target from highs above 9pc in mid-2022 that proved to be a major impetus behind president-elect Donald Trump's victory at the ballot box on 5 November. The CME's FedWatch tool today gives near-80pc odds of another quarter-point cut in December. "The economy can develop in a way that would cause us to go faster or slower" in adjusting rates lower, Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters last week after the Fed decision. The food index rose by an annual 2.1pc, slowing from a 2.3pc gain through September. Shelter rose by an annual 4.9pc, unchanged. Transportation services rose by 8.2pc. New vehicles fell by 1.3pc while used vehicle prices fell by 3.4pc. Services less energy services, viewed as core services, rose by 4.8pc. On a monthly basis, CPI rose by 0.2pc in October, a fourth month of such gains after falling by 0.1pc in June. Core inflation rose by 0.3pc for a third month. Shelter accelerated to a 0.4pc monthly gain, accounting for over half of the monthly all-items increase, after a 0.2pc gain. Energy was unchanged in October after falling by 1.9pc in September from the prior month. Food rose by 0.2pc on the month, following a 0.4pc gain. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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